Wide Receiver

[Dantés]

With so many good names at wide receiver in this year's class, I think it's helpful to categorize them. Ben Fennel does this a lot and I find it to be a great way to get your arms around such a big class.

The Packers could use help at the position in many forms, but in my opinion the two biggest missing skill-sets are YAC ability and 3rd down reliability. So how do we break out all of these names?

Obviously this is imperfect. There are guys who check multiple boxes. So I'm just trying to land them in the most defining spot. And I am sure I will change my mind on some as we go. Size/Catch-Point receivers are those that primarily win with strength in overwhelming smaller DB's, have large catch radii, and dominate the catch point. Speed/YAC receivers are pretty self-explanatory. Route-Runner/Possession guys specialize in getting open and creating separation. Gadget players are those that are used all over the formation, as both runners and receivers, and receive more manufactured touches.

Size/Catch-Point:

• T. Higgins, Clemson
• M. Pittman, USC
• C. Claypool, Notre Dame
• D. Mims, Baylor (+speed)
• J. Jefferson, LSU
• A. Gandy-Golden, Liberty
• I. Hodgins, Oregon State
• B. Edwards, South Carolina
• C. Johnson, Texas

Speed/YAC:

• H. Ruggs, Alabama
• J. Reagor, TCU
• B. Aiyuk, Arizona State
• K. Hamler, Penn State
• J. Hightower, Boise State

Route-Runner/Possession:

• C. Lamb, Oklahoma (also a lot of YAC ability)
• J. Jeudy, Alabama
• V. Jefferson, Florida
• J. Proche, SMU
• D. Duvernay, Texas

Gadget:

• L. Shenault, Colorado
• A. Gibson, Memphis

 

[OldSchool101]

I like Ruggs and Smith but I'm just not super sold on them. The 3rd Round for either I can live with though.

That sounds so nonchalant If Alabama’s Ruggs runs a sub 4.3 he’s protected at the combine? he’ll be gone before our first pick. He’s likely the fastest player entering the NFL this year.

 

[GleefulGary]

Lamb won't escape the Top 10.

I like Ruggs and Smith but I'm just not super sold on them. The 3rd Round for either I can live with though.

Reagor is super raw, I would only be interested in him as a 3rd or 4th.

I'm honing in on Donovan Peoples-Jones and Antonio Gandy-Golden as they fit the mold Gute is looking for.


Granted this is just my analysis but we'll see what happens next year.

Reagor isn't *that* raw.

 

[Dantés]

Reagor isn't *that* raw.

And if he's considered to be super raw, then what does that make Gandy-Golden and Peoples-Jones?

 

[GleefulGary]

And if he's considered to be super raw, then what does that make Gandy-Golden and Peoples-Jones?

Where's that Gordon Ramsey gif when I need it.

 

[Dantés]

Here are Zierlein's implied rankings at WR. I've pulled every player to receive a 6.1 or better. On his scale 6.1 and up are guys that he believes could be starters, albeit not immediately on the lower end:

1. C. Lamb, Oklahoma (6.86)
2. J. Jeudy, Alabama (6.86)
3. L. Shenault, Colorado (6.50)*
4. H. Ruggs, Alabama (6.49)
5. T. Higgins, Clemson (6.48)
6. J. Jefferson, LSU (6.41)
7. C. Claypool, Notre Dame (6.40)
8. J. Reagor, TCU (6.39)
9. M. Pittman, USC (6.38)
10. K. Hamler, Penn State (6.37)
11. B. Aiyuk, Arizona State (6.36)
12. B. Edwards, South Carolina (6.29)
13. A. Gandy-Golden, Liberty (6.27)
14. V. Jefferson, Florida (6.27)
15. D. Mims, Baylor (6.25)
16. G. Davis, Central Florida (6.25)
17. Q. Cephus, Minnesota (6.19)
18. I. Hogkins, Oregon State, (6.17)
19. K. Hill, Ohio State (6.17)
20. T. Johnson, Minnesota (6.16)
21. K. Lipscomb, Vanderbilt (6.13)

*Important to note that Zierlein reserves the "6.50" grade specifically for players who he feels are boom/bust prospects. So labeling Shenault with a 6.5 may or may not mean that he values him above guys in the 6.3's and 6.4's.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I

I would just reverse your order. DL run stopper on the line then a TE who is athletic.

Agreed. If a guy like Patrick Queen is there at 30, I’d take him and address WR in round two, or through FA although that pool is thin, and expensive.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Here are Zierlein's implied rankings at WR. I've pulled every player to receive a 6.1 or better. On his scale 6.1 and up are guys that he believes could be starters, albeit not immediately on the lower end:

1. C. Lamb, Oklahoma (6.86)
2. J. Jeudy, Alabama (6.86)
3. L. Shenault, Colorado (6.50)*
4. H. Ruggs, Alabama (6.49)
5. T. Higgins, Clemson (6.48)
6. J. Jefferson, LSU (6.41)

Go read the PFF article breaking down Jefferson's 2019 season. He could be good a pro (probably will be a starter caliber guy) but he scares me with his inability to defeat press coverage. I'm not saying that the Packers should avoid him, but there are about 4-5 lower "ranked" WRs on that list I would prefer. His weakness is just too stark to be worth a 1st round pick imo. I just don't think he has the potential to ever be an elite WR in the NFL, at least not without a lot of work.

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-dont-fall-in-love-with-justin-jeffersons-2019-production

 

[Dantés]

Go read the PFF article breaking down Jefferson's 2019 season. He could be good a pro (probably will be a starter caliber guy) but he scares me with his inability to defeat press coverage. I'm not saying that the Packers should avoid him, but there are about 4-5 lower "ranked" WRs on that list I would prefer. His weakness is just too stark to be worth a 1st round pick imo. I just don't think he has the potential to ever be an elite WR in the NFL, at least not without a lot of work.

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-dont-fall-in-love-with-justin-jeffersons-2019-production

I was expecting a much different player when I started watching Jefferson. He has terrific ball skills, but the notion that he creates tons of separation is a myth. It was relatively easy for opponents to stay in phase with him in college.

 

[morango]

With so many good names at wide receiver in this year's class, I think it's helpful to categorize them. Ben Fennel does this a lot and I find it to be a great way to get your arms around such a big class.

The Packers could use help at the position in many forms, but in my opinion the two biggest missing skill-sets are YAC ability and 3rd down reliability. So how do we break out all of these names?

Obviously this is imperfect. There are guys who check multiple boxes. So I'm just trying to land them in the most defining spot. And I am sure I will change my mind on some as we go. Size/Catch-Point receivers are those that primarily win with strength in overwhelming smaller DB's, have large catch radii, and dominate the catch point. Speed/YAC receivers are pretty self-explanatory. Route-Runner/Possession guys specialize in getting open and creating separation. Gadget players are those that are used all over the formation, as both runners and receivers, and receive more manufactured touches.

Size/Catch-Point:

• T. Higgins, Clemson
• M. Pittman, USC
• C. Claypool, Notre Dame
• D. Mims, Baylor (+speed)
• J. Jefferson, LSU
• A. Gandy-Golden, Liberty
• I. Hodgins, Oregon State
• B. Edwards, South Carolina
• C. Johnson, Texas

Speed/YAC:

• H. Ruggs, Alabama
• J. Reagor, TCU
• B. Aiyuk, Arizona State
• K. Hamler, Penn State
• J. Hightower, Boise State

Route-Runner/Possession:

• C. Lamb, Oklahoma (also a lot of YAC ability)
• J. Jeudy, Alabama
• V. Jefferson, Florida
• J. Proche, SMU
• D. Duvernay, Texas

Gadget:

• L. Shenault, Colorado
• A. Gibson, Memphis

Dante’s I agree that there are a sh*t-ton of good WRs this year, and like how you broke those down into skill sets, even though there is certainly some overlap.

At the moment my favorites are Ruggs, Aiyuk, Proche, and KJ Hill (who is not in your list).

I am leaning towards 2nd - 4th round for WR unless one of the top guys slides down.

 

[Jason Edens]

Here are Zierlein's implied rankings at WR. I've pulled every player to receive a 6.1 or better. On his scale 6.1 and up are guys that he believes could be starters, albeit not immediately on the lower end:

1. C. Lamb, Oklahoma (6.86)
2. J. Jeudy, Alabama (6.86)
3. L. Shenault, Colorado (6.50)*
4. H. Ruggs, Alabama (6.49)
5. T. Higgins, Clemson (6.48)
6. J. Jefferson, LSU (6.41)
7. C. Claypool, Notre Dame (6.40)
8. J. Reagor, TCU (6.39)
9. M. Pittman, USC (6.38)
10. K. Hamler, Penn State (6.37)
11. B. Aiyuk, Arizona State (6.36)
12. B. Edwards, South Carolina (6.29)
13. A. Gandy-Golden, Liberty (6.27)
14. V. Jefferson, Florida (6.27)
15. D. Mims, Baylor (6.25)
16. G. Davis, Central Florida (6.25)
17. Q. Cephus, Minnesota (6.19)
18. I. Hogkins, Oregon State, (6.17)
19. K. Hill, Ohio State (6.17)
20. T. Johnson, Minnesota (6.16)
21. K. Lipscomb, Vanderbilt (6.13)

*Important to note that Zierlein reserves the "6.50" grade specifically for players who he feels are boom/bust prospects. So labeling Shenault with a 6.5 may or may not mean that he values him above guys in the 6.3's and 6.4's.

Based on his rankings we can maybe put these prospects into tiers.

Tier 1: C. Lamb, J. Jeudy
Tier 2: L Shenault, H Ruggs, T Higgins, J. Jefferson, C. Claypool, J Reagor, M Pittman, K Hamler, B Aiyuk
Tier 3: B Edwards, A Gandy-Golden, V Jefferson, D Mims, G Davis
Tier 4: Q Cephus, I Hogkins, K Hill, T Johnson, K Lipscomb

From the mock drafts I have seen, most of them have it going:

1st Lamb
2nd Jeudy
3rd Higgins
4th Ruggs
5th Aiyuk

Of course it is not always in that order, but those are the top 5 names I see most often. I am not fully convinced that 5 WRs come off the board before it gets to us at 30. If six come off before us at the 30th pick, that means that top tier talent at other positions should fall to us. Four QBs are going to be taken in the first round this year, possibly 5 if someone wants Eason on that 1st rounder contract. I think we will get a shot at a top 5 WR prospect or a top 2 prospect at another position like Kenneth Murray. I am excited to see how this draft pans out. We should be able to get a T2 and T3 wideout prospect in this list if we ignore free agent WRs, or maybe a T3 and T4 at the least if we do pick up a projected WR starter outside of the draft.

 

[GleefulGary]

I really, really, like Denzel Mims.

6'3, low 4.4 speed, long arms, great catch radius, he's a stud.

I think he's there at #62, and I wouldn't have any issue taking him there.

 

[Dantés]

Based on his rankings we can maybe put these prospects into tiers.

Tier 1: C. Lamb, J. Jeudy
Tier 2: L Shenault, H Ruggs, T Higgins, J. Jefferson, C. Claypool, J Reagor, M Pittman, K Hamler, B Aiyuk
Tier 3: B Edwards, A Gandy-Golden, V Jefferson, D Mims, G Davis
Tier 4: Q Cephus, I Hogkins, K Hill, T Johnson, K Lipscomb

From the mock drafts I have seen, most of them have it going:

1st Lamb
2nd Jeudy
3rd Higgins
4th Ruggs
5th Aiyuk

Of course it is not always in that order, but those are the top 5 names I see most often. I am not fully convinced that 5 WRs come off the board before it gets to us at 30. If six come off before us at the 30th pick, that means that top tier talent at other positions should fall to us. Four QBs are going to be taken in the first round this year, possibly 5 if someone wants Eason on that 1st rounder contract. I think we will get a shot at a top 5 WR prospect or a top 2 prospect at another position like Kenneth Murray. I am excited to see how this draft pans out. We should be able to get a T2 and T3 wideout prospect in this list if we ignore free agent WRs, or maybe a T3 and T4 at the least if we do pick up a projected WR starter outside of the draft.

I haven't paid much attention to Lamb or Jeudy just because they're not realistic targets. I assume they are as great as everyone is saying.

I love Shenault if you have a plan for him. In the right situation, he's Deebo+. In the wrong situation, he's Cordarelle Patterson. Injuries scare me with him.

Higgins is the real deal, in my opinion. I haven't watched a ton, but his movement skills are impressive for such a big player with a big catch radius. He might almost need a 2nd tier unto himself. Maybe a couple other guys end up there with him.

I think Justin Jefferson is a tier 4 player. I have watched maybe 7 games and I just don't get it with him. Maybe I'm crazy. But I'll just call it like I see it.

I appreciate Ruggs and Reagor on the same tier. I don't know what Ruggs does that Reagor can't. I think the perception that the former is a definitively better prospect is because he played with some of the best QB in the country, while Reagor played with some of the worst.

Aiyuk is interesting. I like what he can do. I'm a little worried that he needs too much space to operate as a playmaker.

I think Mims is better than he's getting credit for. He's very impressive.

I haven't spent much time on these others.

 

[GleefulGary]

I haven't paid much attention to Lamb or Jeudy just because they're not realistic targets. I assume they are as great as everyone is saying.

I love Shenault if you have a plan for him. In the right situation, he's Deebo+. In the wrong situation, he's Cordarelle Patterson. Injuries scare me with him.

Higgins is the real deal, in my opinion. I haven't watched a ton, but his movement skills are impressive for such a big player with a big catch radius. He might almost need a 2nd tier unto himself. Maybe a couple other guys end up there with him.

I think Justin Jefferson is a tier 4 player. I have watched maybe 7 games and I just don't get it with him. Maybe I'm crazy. But I'll just call it like I see it.

I appreciate Ruggs and Reagor on the same tier. I don't know what Ruggs does that Reagor can't. I think the perception that the former is a definitively better prospect is because he played with some of the best QB in the country, while Reagor played with some of the worst.

Aiyuk is interesting. I like what he can do. I'm a little worried that he needs too much space to operate as a playmaker.

I think Mims is better than he's getting credit for. He's very impressive.

I haven't spent much time on these others.

On the players I agree with, I think you have a great analysis. Great job!

On the players I don't agree with, I truly think you know nothing about football. Get a life!

 

[Jason Edens]

I really, really, like Denzel Mims.

6'3, low 4.4 speed, long arms, great catch radius, he's a stud.

I think he's there at #62, and I wouldn't have any issue taking him there.

I watched his highlight reel on youtube and I was very impressed. I think he would be a steal at the end of the second if keeps flying under the radar.

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I haven't paid much attention to Lamb or Jeudy just because they're not realistic targets. I assume they are as great as everyone is saying.

I love Shenault if you have a plan for him. In the right situation, he's Deebo+. In the wrong situation, he's Cordarelle Patterson. Injuries scare me with him.

Higgins is the real deal, in my opinion. I haven't watched a ton, but his movement skills are impressive for such a big player with a big catch radius. He might almost need a 2nd tier unto himself. Maybe a couple other guys end up there with him.

I think Justin Jefferson is a tier 4 player. I have watched maybe 7 games and I just don't get it with him. Maybe I'm crazy. But I'll just call it like I see it.

I appreciate Ruggs and Reagor on the same tier. I don't know what Ruggs does that Reagor can't. I think the perception that the former is a definitively better prospect is because he played with some of the best QB in the country, while Reagor played with some of the worst.

Aiyuk is interesting. I like what he can do. I'm a little worried that he needs too much space to operate as a playmaker.

I think Mims is better than he's getting credit for. He's very impressive.

I haven't spent much time on these others.

Jeudy is a more polished than Lamb, he is a pro ready route runner out of the gate. Lamb is more physical and also pro ready. Higgins is being taken third in most of the mocks I see recently, and he is being taken within a few picks of Lamb/Jeudy. He seems to be T1.5 right now. Shenault looks like a physical specimen, and I think you are right he could be one of the best in this draft or he might bust. I think he will probably slide a bit on the first day, but I am sure the combine will solidify these pre-draft tiers a bit more. Ruggs, Reagor, and Aiyuk all seem to be a mix of later 1st round picks. Maybe they should be 2.0 and the others 2.5. I haven't really watched much of Jefferson yet or the others I have in 2. It is definitely a deep WR draft this year. Probably one of the best in a long time. Mims should probably be part of that 2.5 group and maybe higher from what I have watched. His physicality and hands look stellar.

 

[GleefulGary]

Pre-Combine top 8 (in tiers):

- Jerry Jeudy
- CeeDee Lamb
- Tee Higgins

- Denzel Mims
- Henry Ruggs

- Jalen Reagor
- Brandon Aiyuk
- KJ Hamler


I'll be honest, Lamb scares me. I typically don't like WR's with his skill set. But it seems like the "experts" all like him, so this more reflects their opinion on him.

 

[Jason Edens]

Pre-Combine top 8 (in tiers):

- Jerry Jeudy
- CeeDee Lamb
- Tee Higgins

- Denzel Mims
- Henry Ruggs

- Jalen Reagor
- Brandon Aiyuk
- KJ Hamler


I'll be honest, Lamb scares me. I typically don't like WR's with his skill set. But it seems like the "experts" all like him, so this more reflects their opinion on him.

I haven't seen any mock drafts with Mims being taken before Ruggs, Reagor, or Aiyuk. Based on his film, I agree he should be up there with them, but I am wondering why it isn't reflected in his rankings yet. Is it due to him coming out of Baylor? I think he looks better than the guy coming out of TCU (Reagor).

 

[GleefulGary]

I haven't seen any mock drafts with Mims being taken before Ruggs, Reagor, or Aiyuk. Based on his film, I agree he should be up there with them, but I am wondering why it isn't reflected in his rankings yet. Is it due to him coming out of Baylor? I think he looks better than the guy coming out of TCU (Reagor).

I dunno.

I'm probably higher on him than most. And I guess I didn't do my tiers in rankings, I do think Ruggs is a little better.

But for the most part, mocks don't mean much. They always have "risers" that they're just finding out about, that NFL teams have had high on their boards for a long time. Like Darnell Savage. Opposite happens a lot too. Mocks are just for fun.

 

[GleefulGary]

I really, really, really, love Hamler as a slot here with LaFleur. Like, really love it. He's really good.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I haven't paid much attention to Lamb or Jeudy just because they're not realistic targets. I assume they are as great as everyone is saying.

I love Shenault if you have a plan for him. In the right situation, he's Deebo+. In the wrong situation, he's Cordarelle Patterson. Injuries scare me with him.

Higgins is the real deal, in my opinion. I haven't watched a ton, but his movement skills are impressive for such a big player with a big catch radius. He might almost need a 2nd tier unto himself. Maybe a couple other guys end up there with him.

I think Justin Jefferson is a tier 4 player. I have watched maybe 7 games and I just don't get it with him. Maybe I'm crazy. But I'll just call it like I see it.

I appreciate Ruggs and Reagor on the same tier. I don't know what Ruggs does that Reagor can't. I think the perception that the former is a definitively better prospect is because he played with some of the best QB in the country, while Reagor played with some of the worst.

Aiyuk is interesting. I like what he can do. I'm a little worried that he needs too much space to operate as a playmaker.

I think Mims is better than he's getting credit for. He's very impressive.

I haven't spent much time on these others.

I like the idea of Higgins and I think he'll be a good NFL WR, I just think the height advantage between a 6'2" and 6'5" WR is overblown by most fans. Being great at contested catches is not nearly as valuable as just getting open and not having to make contested catches. I'm not saying that Higgins can't get open, just that he seems like he's 10 lbs from being a TE who doesn't block very well as compared to some of the other top WRs that have shown the potential to actually become elite route runners.

 

[GleefulGary]

I like the idea of Higgins and I think he'll be a good NFL WR, I just think the height advantage between a 6'2" and 6'5" WR is overblown by most fans. Being great at contested catches is not nearly as valuable as just getting open and not having to make contested catches. I'm not saying that Higgins can't get open, just that he seems like he's 10 lbs from being a TE who doesn't block very well as compared to some of the other top WRs that have shown the potential to actually become elite route runners.

You should probably watch Higgins. He gets open. Has really good movement skills for his size. I don't see any reason why he couldn't become a very good route runner. He's not AJ Green, but he's AJ Green-esque.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

You should probably watch Higgins. He gets open. Has really good movement skills for his size. I don't see any reason why he couldn't become a very good route runner. He's not AJ Green, but he's AJ Green-esque.

As I pointed out, I think he'll be a good WR in the NFL. I just think contested catch ability is a less desirable trait in a WR to being able to get open. Yes, Higgins, can get open, but I don't think he's as fluid/quick as many of the elite WRs in this year's draft.

 

[Dantés]

I like the idea of Higgins and I think he'll be a good NFL WR, I just think the height advantage between a 6'2" and 6'5" WR is overblown by most fans. Being great at contested catches is not nearly as valuable as just getting open and not having to make contested catches. I'm not saying that Higgins can't get open, just that he seems like he's 10 lbs from being a TE who doesn't block very well as compared to some of the other top WRs that have shown the potential to actually become elite route runners.

I'm internally trying to fight against the urge to overreact against big wide receivers.

I also don't think much of big, contested catch types. However, I think Higgins moves very well and shouldn't be viewed like some of these other jump ball guys.

 

[tynimiller]

Pre-Combine top 8 (in tiers):

- Jerry Jeudy
- CeeDee Lamb
- Tee Higgins

- Denzel Mims
- Henry Ruggs

- Jalen Reagor
- Brandon Aiyuk
- KJ Hamler


I'll be honest, Lamb scares me. I typically don't like WR's with his skill set. But it seems like the "experts" all like him, so this more reflects their opinion on him.

I think we collectively can stop even discussing Jeudy and Lamb...most likely Higgins and Ruggs are gone as well. IF we sit still at #30 or trade back to the 35-45 range the pickings start at your second tier onward.

I'll throw in names like Claypool (ND), Peoples-Jones (MI), Jefferson (LSU), Gandy-Golden (LIB), Proche (SMU), Lipscomb (VAN), Hill (OSU), Pittman (USC) and few others sprinkled in.

 

[GleefulGary]

Pre-Combine top 8 (in tiers):

- Jerry Jeudy
- CeeDee Lamb
- Tee Higgins

- Denzel Mims
- Henry Ruggs

- Jalen Reagor
- Brandon Aiyuk
- KJ Hamler


I'll be honest, Lamb scares me. I typically don't like WR's with his skill set. But it seems like the "experts" all like him, so this more reflects their opinion on him.

Ooof Hamler came in smaller than I expected. Not a great sign for him. He has some drop issues, but surprisingly has some big hands. Not what you'd expect from his size profile.

Aiyuk has some freaking long arms. That should help him a lot.

Reagor helped himself by weighing in at over 200 lbs.