Free Agency Thread

[Heyjoe4]

Wanna bet on that first pick. I'm willing to make a small wager that the 1st pick will not be CB.

Then name a position that you believe will be picked. At least this adds a little interest to the first round!

 

[tynimiller]

Also, what current Packers can play this "EDGE" position? Gary, Smith, LVS, Enagbare?

Them and likely Wooden and Brooks will be at DE at times too.

 

[Heyjoe4]

If this friendly wager happens - a declaration of if DeJean qualifies or not needs set. I see him and many do as a safety not a CB in the NFL.

Kind of a grey line. I agree that he is viewed primarily as a S. But some safeties will shift to slot corner on occasion, or at least play as if they were a slot corner. For this draft, it's probably better to say the Packers first pick will be in the secondary.

And even that needs qualification. To get any of the first-round eligible DBs, they will likely have to move into the top 20, better yet top 15. They have the draft capital to do it, and they certainly have the need. FWIW I see OL as the second pick. The draft is OL heavy (pun intended) and they can still find value in the 2nd round. The play of Walker at LT has pushed tackle lower on the needs list. OR, they could take an iOL in the first. Don't think so though, unless a guy who can play G and/or C is available.

 

[gopkrs]

So much will depend on who's not there and if someone is on our board marked take immediately. And at 25, it is pretty much a guess. Still don't want to trade our 2nds or 3rds.

 

[Schultz]

If I was betting on that first Packer pick, I would put the most money on an offensive lineman. 2nd bet might be on defensive lineman. 3rd bet on a DB. 4th on Edge, 5th on ILB.

The positions I would bet on as no way in the 1st: LS, P, K, QB, RB, TE, WR

I will add my 2 cents here. If we are talking pick #25 not 1st pick (they may trade back) I drop ILB to no way. IMO there isn't one worth a 1st round pick. 1. DB 2. OL (has to be a day 1 starter. if drafting for depth wait until later) Tie for distant 3rd. Edge or DL. Other than WR, TE these are the teams deepest positions IMO. Hopefully Enagbare is back sooner rather than later. To me, he is like a draft pick who you hope develops and can give you quality snaps the 2nd half of the season. IMO.

 

[DoURant]

Them and likely Wooden and Brooks will be at DE at times too.

Wooden for sure, imo.

 

[DoURant]

Until Gute actually drafts someone on offense in the 1st round, other than Love....I defer to defense being the pick.

 

[gopkrs]

I will add my 2 cents here. If we are talking pick #25 not 1st pick (they may trade back) I drop ILB to no way. IMO there isn't one worth a 1st round pick. 1. DB 2. OL (has to be a day 1 starter. if drafting for depth wait until later) Tie for distant 3rd. Edge or DL. Other than WR, TE these are the teams deepest positions IMO. Hopefully Enagbare is back sooner rather than later. To me, he is like a draft pick who you hope develops and can give you quality snaps the 2nd half of the season. IMO.

I like what you say but I don't think we need another TE. If you're talking about the H back type; I'm thinking that guy has be tailor made for that position. I'm not convinced Dillon can do it but certainly willing to give him a chance.

 

[Schultz]

I like what you say but I don't think we need another TE. If you're talking about the H back type; I'm thinking that guy has be tailor made for that position. I'm not convinced Dillon can do it but certainly willing to give him a chance.

I agree. That's why I included TE in with WRs as currently the deepest positions.

 

[mradtke66]

"EDGE" is a tough one with this draft. With the shift to a "4-3", what do we now call edge? A guy on the edge of the DL, that puts his hand in the dirt? One of the 2 OLB's?

The entire point of "edge" is that 3-4 OLBs and 4-3 DEs are more largely, if not entirely, equivalent.

I realize that we will not be always seeing 4 on the DL and the linebackers, but that is just it, what will the defense look like and how much different will it look from that we saw under Barry?

In nickel, you probably won't see any different in the front 6.

 

[GBkrzygrl]

I know that we just got McKinney, but if there is a good safety in that spot I would be okay with that. He could learn from McKinney.

 

[Voyageur]

I know that we just got McKinney, but if there is a good safety in that spot I would be okay with that. He could learn from McKinney.

I wouldn't object one iota of they grabbed a DB with that first pick. We need to stop teams from treating our secondary like they weren't even on the field.

 

[PikeBadger]

That's fine, but offer an alternative rather than just disagreeing. What do you expect will happen? Even "I don't know" is a valid answer.

I don't know.
What I do know is that I figure the odds to be between 65-75% that the pick won't be a CB which automatically makes it a good bet for me.

 

[sschind]

Agreed. People need to view drafts differently. Each team starts with seven draft choices and a pool of money for rookie contracts. It really doesn't matter if it's your top picks or low picks that end up being your good players. What really matters is that you beat the average, which you can see below from one study is only about 30%. So if you whiff on your top picks but continually draft a bunch of Tom Bradys, Shannon Sharpes, Richard Dents, and Donald Drivers in the low rounds....what does it matter? The goal is to ace each draft, but the bar is set at getting at least 2-3 starters.

NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High

More analytics haven’t increased the success rate

www.dailynorseman.com

The author studied 1996-2016 draft picks. The results, which are based on the Pro Football Reference AV metric, are sobering:

• 16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them
• 37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.
• 15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.
• 10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.
• 12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters, Pat Elflein or Christian Ponder for example, or perhaps some genuinely good players that didn’t last all that long for the team that drafted them- Sidney Rice for example. This is where the AV metric can over-rate a player based on the number of starts, rather than their performance while on the field.
• 6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years.
• 1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers.

And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.

I've always said that the only time draft position matters to me is Thursday, Friday and Saturday, once Monday hits they are all equal. Sure I will have more expectations from the Thursday and Friday guys but I really dont care if the top 3 crash and burn if the bottom three become stars. That's why I will always consider AJ Hawk a very successful pick.

 

[sschind]

I'd guess that if some of the guys in the Packers war room did a mock draft for the Packers, many wouldn't get more than half of the names to match reality.

I'm guessing if Gute did a mock draft now he wouldn't get more than half the names to match reality. All it takes is one team to mess up your board and leave you scrambling and there are 31 of them. Thats why its nice to have options and I think Gute has them.

 

[sschind]

I don't know.
What I do know is that I figure the odds to be between 65-75% that the pick won't be a CB which automatically makes it a good bet for me.

He's picking against the field. CB is one position whereas the field consists of what, 4 maybe 5 realistically, You've got a good chance it won't be a CB.

Sorry about the multiple posts. I'm doing this on my phone while I'm walking. Its too much of a pain to use the multiple reply

 

[Heyjoe4]

I don't know.
What I do know is that I figure the odds to be between 65-75% that the pick won't be a CB which automatically makes it a good bet for me.

Fair enough. I think Gluten moves up in round 1 to take a CB. It might be a Safety - the point is they need secondary help more than any other position IMO. We'll find out soon enough if that need, and 11 draft picks, motivates Gluten to move up.

It's possible a CB falls to them at 25. I just don't see it.

 

[Heyjoe4]

He's picking against the field. CB is one position whereas the field consists of what, 4 maybe 5 realistically, You've got a good chance it won't be a CB.

Sorry about the multiple posts. I'm doing this on my phone while I'm walking. Its too much of a pain to use the multiple reply

I agree with you sschind. And I am picking against the field, sans CBs. But based on need, it's not much of a gamble. If Gluten does take a CB, or even a S, he has to move up to around 15. And he will.

And Gluten may trade out of the first round entirely. With all the picks he already has, and not as much need as prior years, I don't see that happening. Who the hell knows?

 

[Schultz]

Fair enough. I think Gluten moves up in round 1 to take a CB. It might be a Safety - the point is they need secondary help more than any other position IMO. We'll find out soon enough if that need, and 11 draft picks, motivates Gluten to move up.

It's possible a CB falls to them at 25. I just don't see it.

If you like Kool-Aid, which a lot of people do, they could get their CB at 25.

 

[Heyjoe4]

If you like Kool-Aid, which a lot of people do, they could get their CB at 25.

I forgot about Kool-Aid. And yeah, he's one guy who could drop to 25. I really haven't looked at him enough to say if he would be a reach at 25. And while I'm no fan of mocks, most have him going somewhere in the last third of the draft. Hell, I'd take him just for his name!

Hard to say if Gluten would take him if he stands pat at 25, but thanks for the reminder. Just seems like he has the draft capital to move up, and there are good players in the top 15 or 20. A move up just seems likely.

Pike and I have both said that mock drafts are mostly wrong. But this is kinda fun. I say CB, Pike says no. We'll have a little fun with it.

 

[Half Empty]

I've always said that the only time draft position matters to me is Thursday, Friday and Saturday, once Monday hits they are all equal. Sure I will have more expectations from the Thursday and Friday guys but I really dont care if the top 3 crash and burn if the bottom three become stars. That's why I will always consider AJ Hawk a very successful pick.

Don't really follow. Which of the guys at the bottom of the 2006 draft make up for the choice of Hawk's production with the #5 pick?

 

[PikeBadger]

I forgot about Kool-Aid. And yeah, he's one guy who could drop to 25. I really haven't looked at him enough to say if he would be a reach at 25. And while I'm no fan of mocks, most have him going somewhere in the last third of the draft. Hell, I'd take him just for his name!

Hard to say if Gluten would take him if he stands pat at 25, but thanks for the reminder. Just seems like he has the draft capital to move up, and there are good players in the top 15 or 20. A move up just seems likely.

Pike and I have both said that mock drafts are mostly wrong. But this is kinda fun. I say CB, Pike says no. We'll have a little fun with it.

I never said no to CB.

I said I think the chances of CB are such that betting against it makes good sense.

 

[sschind]

Don't really follow. Which of the guys at the bottom of the 2006 draft make up for the choice of Hawk's production with the #5 pick?

I'm saying that Hawk a a very good career in Green Bay. If he hadn't been the #5 pick he would have been considered a home run but since he was picked that high some people consider him a minor bust. I Don't. If you get that production out of a draft pick I don't care where he was drafted. First or last its a big hit. If not a home run at least a triple and I'll take triples every day.

 

[Schultz]

Since Hawk was that early of a pick I would call it a 2 out triple. If he was day 2 then IMO that would have been a lead-off triple.

 

[tynimiller]

****…if Hawk had been a day 2 pick and you got that career out him, I call than a three run homerun.