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<blockquote data-quote="Thirteen Below" data-source="post: 1028962" data-attributes="member: 18006"><p>I wonder now if that actually would have been a better outcome, or if this really did work out for the best.</p><p></p><p>Hanging onto Rodgers one more season created a specific set of circumstances that set into motion a specific chain of events that (in turn) led to a specific set of outcomes - beginning with a a very good 2022 draft, another year of development for Jordan Love, that phenomenal 2023 draft where Gute hit a home run on practically every one of the 13 picks we had, and Jordan Love popping out of his cocoon and emerging as one of the top half-dozen quarterbacks in the NFL.</p><p></p><p>And the most significant specific outcome of that chain of events is that right now we're the best young team in the NFL - we're primed for a deep playoff run and quite possibly a Super Bowl in the year 2024. Just 2 years after that catastrophic 13-10 debacle.</p><p></p><p>Make that trade with Denver in 22, how many of those specific circumstances actually happen going into the 2022 pre-season? None. And without those circumstances in place, how many of the events over the next 2 years play out the same way? None, really.</p><p></p><p>And if none of those key circumstances develop the same way that they did in real life, how likely is it that we would have arrived at this set of outcomes - strongest young team in the league, one of the top 5 or 6 quarterbacks, legitimate Lombardi contender?</p><p></p><p>Hard to say, because it's purely speculation, but there are a number of reasons to believe this might not have happened.</p><p></p><p>In that alternate universe, the first event that is different is that Rodgers is traded before the 22 draft. That means the draft won't be the same - might get some of the same players, but not all of them, and the draft picks we would have gottten from Denver would have changed our whole draft strategy. So that's one thing that will be different. Will the draft turn out better for us - or worse?</p><p></p><p>Or roughly comparable?</p><p></p><p>Who can know? You only need to change a small number of picks to dramatically change the course of an entire draft.</p><p></p><p>Second thing that happens is probably the big one - Love steps up as the starter after just 2 seasons of apprenticeship, rather than 3.</p><p></p><p>It's safe to say that he probably wouldn't have been quite as polished in Year 3 as he was in Year 4, and while I now believe he would still be a very good quarterback, I doubt we'd have seen the same level of excellence in his first year as a starter as we did in 23. Even if for no other reason than that he woudn't have had those tremendous young receivers from the 23 draft.</p><p></p><p>Which is the next big difference between Real Life and the Alternate Universe - the 2023 draft that <em>really</em> loaded the team for our window would have been very different. Again, probably still good, but the odds of it being the huge grand slam that it was seem slim.</p><p></p><p>Long story short, when we held onto Rodgers in the 2022 offseason, a lot of us (and yeah, me included) melted down and said "whoopeee, 1970s and 80s here we come again!!!"</p><p></p><p>Jim del Gaizo. Randy Johnson, Jerry Tagge, Carlos Brown, Don Milan.... Randy Wright, Rich Campbell, David Whitehurst, Blair Kiel... Alan Risher, Jack Concannon, Scott Hunter, and AFD - Anthony Freaking Dilweg. I looked back at our past, and I saw our future. I honestly did not have high expectations of Rodgers at that point, and while I didn't expect to spend 15 years marooned on Planet Dilweg with no hope of rescue, I figured there was a a pretty decent chance that we'd have a 4-8 year period where we had a revolving door for mediocre quarterbacks, and the <em>Bears</em> would be the ones laughing and pointing at <em>us</em>.</p><p></p><p>The only time in my life that I was ever happier to be wrong about something was when my wife finally told me we were getting married because she was sick of waiting for me to figure out that yeah, it actually <em>was </em>what she had in mind all the time.</p><p></p><p>Point is, this whole thing has turned out incredibly differently than what seemed possible (maybe even likely) just 24 months ago. There is no other team in the league that I would trade places with right now, or trade futures. It's almost impossible to imagine how we could be in any better position than we are going into 24.</p><p></p><p>And if we had done what so many of us wanted and moved Rodgers to the Broncos 2 years ago, we would be in a very different place than we are now, and it's quite possible it wouldn't be as good a place as it is.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Thirteen Below, post: 1028962, member: 18006"] I wonder now if that actually would have been a better outcome, or if this really did work out for the best. Hanging onto Rodgers one more season created a specific set of circumstances that set into motion a specific chain of events that (in turn) led to a specific set of outcomes - beginning with a a very good 2022 draft, another year of development for Jordan Love, that phenomenal 2023 draft where Gute hit a home run on practically every one of the 13 picks we had, and Jordan Love popping out of his cocoon and emerging as one of the top half-dozen quarterbacks in the NFL. And the most significant specific outcome of that chain of events is that right now we're the best young team in the NFL - we're primed for a deep playoff run and quite possibly a Super Bowl in the year 2024. Just 2 years after that catastrophic 13-10 debacle. Make that trade with Denver in 22, how many of those specific circumstances actually happen going into the 2022 pre-season? None. And without those circumstances in place, how many of the events over the next 2 years play out the same way? None, really. And if none of those key circumstances develop the same way that they did in real life, how likely is it that we would have arrived at this set of outcomes - strongest young team in the league, one of the top 5 or 6 quarterbacks, legitimate Lombardi contender? Hard to say, because it's purely speculation, but there are a number of reasons to believe this might not have happened. In that alternate universe, the first event that is different is that Rodgers is traded before the 22 draft. That means the draft won't be the same - might get some of the same players, but not all of them, and the draft picks we would have gottten from Denver would have changed our whole draft strategy. So that's one thing that will be different. Will the draft turn out better for us - or worse? Or roughly comparable? Who can know? You only need to change a small number of picks to dramatically change the course of an entire draft. Second thing that happens is probably the big one - Love steps up as the starter after just 2 seasons of apprenticeship, rather than 3. It's safe to say that he probably wouldn't have been quite as polished in Year 3 as he was in Year 4, and while I now believe he would still be a very good quarterback, I doubt we'd have seen the same level of excellence in his first year as a starter as we did in 23. Even if for no other reason than that he woudn't have had those tremendous young receivers from the 23 draft. Which is the next big difference between Real Life and the Alternate Universe - the 2023 draft that [I]really[/I] loaded the team for our window would have been very different. Again, probably still good, but the odds of it being the huge grand slam that it was seem slim. Long story short, when we held onto Rodgers in the 2022 offseason, a lot of us (and yeah, me included) melted down and said "whoopeee, 1970s and 80s here we come again!!!" Jim del Gaizo. Randy Johnson, Jerry Tagge, Carlos Brown, Don Milan.... Randy Wright, Rich Campbell, David Whitehurst, Blair Kiel... Alan Risher, Jack Concannon, Scott Hunter, and AFD - Anthony Freaking Dilweg. I looked back at our past, and I saw our future. I honestly did not have high expectations of Rodgers at that point, and while I didn't expect to spend 15 years marooned on Planet Dilweg with no hope of rescue, I figured there was a a pretty decent chance that we'd have a 4-8 year period where we had a revolving door for mediocre quarterbacks, and the [I]Bears[/I] would be the ones laughing and pointing at [I]us[/I]. The only time in my life that I was ever happier to be wrong about something was when my wife finally told me we were getting married because she was sick of waiting for me to figure out that yeah, it actually [I]was [/I]what she had in mind all the time. Point is, this whole thing has turned out incredibly differently than what seemed possible (maybe even likely) just 24 months ago. There is no other team in the league that I would trade places with right now, or trade futures. It's almost impossible to imagine how we could be in any better position than we are going into 24. And if we had done what so many of us wanted and moved Rodgers to the Broncos 2 years ago, we would be in a very different place than we are now, and it's quite possible it wouldn't be as good a place as it is. [/QUOTE]
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