A Jordan Love Contract

[Heyjoe4]

I'm not sure either side is really eager to sign for more than 5. It's probably not in Love's best interest to lock himself into a really long term deal unless he's getting paid in Mahomes Dollars, $55M+... but it's not in the Packers' best interest to commit to that kind of money for such a long term. The kind of money it would probably take to sign him for 5 or more is probably more than Green Bay would want to pay.

I wouldn't be surprised if both parties were comfortable with something like 3, or maybe 3 plus an option or whatever. I think 4 is more likely, but I wouldn't expect it to go more than 5. Unless Green bay really, really beieves in him.

Yeah I think the only way GB reduces its risk in extending Love is to make the duration manageable, so 3 or 4 years sounds likely, and even that doesn't lower the risk of under performance much.

A lot depends on Love and how he sees his future in the NFL. If he has confidence in his game and the Packers try to mess with him, he could just play out his current deal ($20 mil I think) and then go on the market in 2025.

Love played too well for too long, including playoffs, to risk losing him. And big deals are always risky, even when the player's ability is well known (Bakhtiari). Love will get $50 mil/year, give or take. But we don't know what Love is thinking. Anyway, I'll feel better once a deal is done - 3 years, 4 years, whatever. Love is the real deal. Never thought I'd say that, but hey, I'm happy to have been wrong about him.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm not sure either side is really eager to sign for more than 5. It's probably not in Love's best interest to lock himself into a really long term deal unless he's getting paid in Mahomes Dollars, $55M+... but it's not in the Packers' best interest to commit to that kind of money for such a long term. The kind of money it would probably take to sign him for 5 or more is probably more than Green Bay would want to pay.

I wouldn't be surprised if both parties were comfortable with something like 3, or maybe 3 plus an option or whatever. I think 4 is more likely, but I wouldn't expect it to go more than 5. Unless Green bay really, really beieves in him.

Historically this team if they know the QB is their QB don't go shorter than 4 or 5.

If they extend it will tack three or four additional years to his present contract that has one remaining...if I was a betting man my guess is three additional so a four year overall deal.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Historically this team if they know the QB is their QB don't go shorter than 4 or 5.

If they extend it will tack three or four additional years to his present contract that has one remaining...if I was a betting man my guess is three additional so a four year overall deal.

So he's set to make $20 mil next year, I think, and that's guaranteed. You're right, it is GB's MO to extend deals, so the one year deal becomes 4, and the money????? They'll structure it with bonuses and such, but probably around $50 mil/year. Sound right to you?

I do wish he had more time under his belt, there is still some risk. Even $45 mil/year allows the team to do more with more players. One thing is for sure, the extension will happen. The question is $$$. Maybe some of the guaranteed dollars are tied to performance after one year. Wait, that's an oxymoron. Nevermind.......

 

[Voyageur]

Love's contract will fall in the $40-$45 mill range per year, over 4 years. That would put him somewhere in the middle of the top 5, I believe? It's possible that as much as $2 - $3 mill a year of that will be roster bonus, and incentives that are easily reachable. It will also more than likely provide that he would become a free agent after the contract expires. Right now, I do believe he has the Packers by the short hairs, because if they don't renew him now, and he opts to play out next season without a new contract, he's a free agent. He'd be in a position to make a boat load of front money, and a contract that he'd dictate the amount, and someone would pay it. That is, assuming he doesn't hit the wall next year, and flame out. That is always a possibility. It has happened way too often in the past for promising QBs.

It's going to be up to the Packers to roll the dice on this one. They have practically no choice. Of course, one of those four seasons would be next year, which would be rolled over into part of the new contract.

NOTE: It is possible that the total per year could be on an escalating basis, each year being based on the average of the top 5, or even something that guarantees him even more.

 

[SudsMcBucky]

Love's contract will fall in the $40-$45 mill range per year, over 4 years. That would put him somewhere in the middle of the top 5, I believe? It's possible that as much as $2 - $3 mill a year of that will be roster bonus, and incentives that are easily reachable. It will also more than likely provide that he would become a free agent after the contract expires. Right now, I do believe he has the Packers by the short hairs, because if they don't renew him now, and he opts to play out next season without a new contract, he's a free agent. He'd be in a position to make a boat load of front money, and a contract that he'd dictate the amount, and someone would pay it. That is, assuming he doesn't hit the wall next year, and flame out. That is always a possibility. It has happened way too often in the past for promising QBs.

It's going to be up to the Packers to roll the dice on this one. They have practically no choice. Of course, one of those four seasons would be next year, which would be rolled over into part of the new contract.

NOTE: It is possible that the total per year could be on an escalating basis, each year being based on the average of the top 5, or even something that guarantees him even more.

Not necessarily. The Packers would still have multiple franchise tags available, but no, that wouldn't be the situation you'd want, either. My point, though, is he's not gone after 2024 unless the Pack chooses to.

 

[tynimiller]

So he's set to make $20 mil next year, I think, and that's guaranteed. You're right, it is GB's MO to extend deals, so the one year deal becomes 4, and the money????? They'll structure it with bonuses and such, but probably around $50 mil/year. Sound right to you?

I do wish he had more time under his belt, there is still some risk. Even $45 mil/year allows the team to do more with more players. One thing is for sure, the extension will happen. The question is $$$. Maybe some of the guaranteed dollars are tied to performance after one year. Wait, that's an oxymoron. Nevermind.......

So it all comes down to guarantee often times and we are not one to give a TON % wise on that, which is why honestly we may see a four year extension...since best point of reference is Rodgers deals (let's ignore the atypical outlier of his last one):

First real contract he signed a 6 year deal with 31% guarantee.
Next contract before other ended we penned a 5 year deal with about 49% guaranteed
Next contract was 73.6% guaranteed.

His final one was crazy at 100% and I swear was more about thanking him than what we really would normally do.

Now some recent ones for comparison:

Herbert got 50% or so guaranteed
Burrow got around 53%
Lamar got 52%
Hurts got 43%
Jones got 50%

So let's look at it this way....say you do three years $50M a year that's a structure that arguably has a much smaller out as the years are short...and puts about $75M guaranteed to him....

Now what Russ and Gute could say is we want to be closer to that 43% range like Hurts. BUT you could say let's do a four year extension Jordan....with 50% guaranteed at $50M a year...but 2024 allows you to spread some of that burden as it really would be a 5 year deal (4 year extension) and put a bigger amount in his pocket with guarantee of around $115M-$125M (Hurts got $110M) but allows a maybe earlier cap out for the team....

I don't know....I just know if they think Love is Him - sign him now rather than later (now as in as soon as possible) and truthfully I don't care if they go 5, 6 or 7 years if they believe he is Him.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Love's contract will fall in the $40-$45 mill range per year, over 4 years. That would put him somewhere in the middle of the top 5, I believe? It's possible that as much as $2 - $3 mill a year of that will be roster bonus, and incentives that are easily reachable. It will also more than likely provide that he would become a free agent after the contract expires. Right now, I do believe he has the Packers by the short hairs, because if they don't renew him now, and he opts to play out next season without a new contract, he's a free agent. He'd be in a position to make a boat load of front money, and a contract that he'd dictate the amount, and someone would pay it. That is, assuming he doesn't hit the wall next year, and flame out. That is always a possibility. It has happened way too often in the past for promising QBs.

It's going to be up to the Packers to roll the dice on this one. They have practically no choice. Of course, one of those four seasons would be next year, which would be rolled over into part of the new contract.

NOTE: It is possible that the total per year could be on an escalating basis, each year being based on the average of the top 5, or even something that guarantees him even more.

Yeah I think you nailed it here V. With only one year left on his deal, Love is in the captain's chair. IMO they can't afford to gamble that what Love did in the second half of the season and through two well-played playoff games needs more proof - even though it does.

Love comes across as a charming and humble guy. But $50 mil is $50 mil, or somewhere in that neighborhood, and he can let his agent be the bad cop.

Anyway, it's likely to play out as you note. The escalating comp idea is interesting. But until everyone is on that kind of contract - well the Packers can't force him to accept it, and why should he?

 

[Voyageur]

Yeah I think you nailed it here V. With only one year left on his deal, Love is in the captain's chair. IMO they can't afford to gamble that what Love did in the second half of the season and through two well-played playoff games needs more proof - even though it does.

Love comes across as a charming and humble guy. But $50 mil is $50 mil, or somewhere in that neighborhood, and he can let his agent be the bad cop.

Anyway, it's likely to play out as you note. The escalating comp idea is interesting. But until everyone is on that kind of contract - well the Packers can't force him to accept it, and why should he?

It's so difficult trying to project where they'll go with the whole thing, because we have no idea what they consider their chief priorities on a year to year basis, for the next 3 to 4 years. Unless we were in their offices, and sat down watching, and listening to Russ Ball, Glute, and all the top brass discussing numbers, and getting input from LeFleur on relative value of unsigned players, and what range they'd be willing to pay them, we are out in the cold, looking in.

Then, even after they crunch all their numbers, Love and his people are going to be looking at the new salary cap figures, and figuring out just how much money there will be out there which teams will be willing to invest in a top QB. They're going to be shooting for the max percentage, no doubt about it, but how far down could the negotiations go, and is Love interested more in a long term deal, or something of shorter duration, where he can name his own price on a third contract, as a seasoned vet who knows the ropes?

To be honest, I think the Packers front office isn't seeing it much better than we are at this point. As for the Love people, they're just waiting on the ball to fall on how much money will be put into the players' coffers for the coming year. It will more than likely be a fair amount over $240 million, but it's not confirmed yet. A lot of decisions hang in the balance as to how much it is.

 

[Packer Fan in SD]

Everyone needs to take Love out of the equation. His agent will work out what he thinks the value market is, and between that number and the team's number, the negotiations start.

 

[Thirteen Below]

He'd be in a position to make a boat load of front money, and a contract that he'd dictate the amount, and someone would pay it. That is, assuming he doesn't hit the wall next year, and flame out. That is always a possibility. It has happened way too often in the past for promising QBs.

I think the chances are pretty slim that will happen. First off, just a gut feeling about Love. Nothing about this guy looks like a fluke; every single thing just screams "real deal", what you you see is what you get. The talent, the maturity, the composure, the confidence... everything about him is just through the roof.

And second, the team has put him in a position where he has every single thing he could possibly need to succeed. He's surrounded by a supporting cast of one of the top O-lines in the league, one of the best feature backs in the league, one of the top tight-end duos, and arguably the best top-to-bottom wide receiver corps in the NFL. And all of them under the tutelage of one of the best coaching staffs in the league.

For him to regress substantially would almost have to be a total internal meltdown of some sort, and that's the last thing I would ever expect to see from this kid.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Love comes across as a charming and humble guy. But $50 mil is $50 mil, or somewhere in that neighborhood, and he can let his agent be the bad cop.

And his agent, Dave Mulugheta, is probably the best bad cop in the business. He fights like a wildcat for every dime he can get for his clients. To the point where it was reported that the Texans very nearly didn't draft CJ Stroud simply because he's repped by Mulugheta, who whipped Dan Caserio's *** up one side of the street and down the other and left him in a bloody heap over the Deshaun Watson disaster. He's rated by Forbes as the top agent in the NFL, because he is utterly ruthless.

I'm going to keep my fingers crossed for the next coupld of months.

 

[Voyageur]

I think the chances are pretty slim that will happen. First off, just a gut feeling about Love. Nothing about this guy looks like a fluke; every single thing just screams "real deal", what you you see is what you get. The talent, the maturity, the composure, the confidence... everything about him is just through the roof.

And second, the team has put him in a position where he has every single thing he could possibly need to succeed. He's surrounded by a supporting cast of one of the top O-lines in the league, one of the best feature backs in the league, one of the top tight-end duos, and arguably the best top-to-bottom wide receiver corps in the NFL. And all of them under the tutelage of one of the best coaching staffs in the league.

For him to regress substantially would almost have to be a total internal meltdown of some sort, and that's the last thing I would ever expect to see from this kid.

I agree. I don't think he'll flame out either. I think he's the real deal. He has the intestinal-fortitude to actually grow even better over the next couple of years. I also agree with your assessment of the players they've surrounded him with. Even the offensive line, which was maligned constantly earlier in the season. The assets are there, and I think they might even add a player or two to the mix in the draft, who could develop into some consistent minutes as back ups, and eventually move into starting roles.

I'll agree on "best coaching staffs" on the offensive side of the ball, but in all honesty, I thought the defense was poorly managed. That, I'd guess, does require both LeFleur and Gute to shoulder some of the responsibility. Fortunately, they decided to move on. I think we're going to see some interesting new tweaks, and lineups out of the defense this coming season, and if the Packers do invest heavily on that side of the ball, it could vault them into the top 10.

But, I temper my judgement on how good they will be, as a team. They're going to have to show me on the field before I start talking about lofty goals.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Everyone needs to take Love out of the equation. His agent will work out what he thinks the value market is, and between that number and the team's number, the negotiations start.

Yes that's true and why these guys also make a boatload of money. Seems like he has a good agent as well, not really a surprise.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think the chances are pretty slim that will happen. First off, just a gut feeling about Love. Nothing about this guy looks like a fluke; every single thing just screams "real deal", what you you see is what you get. The talent, the maturity, the composure, the confidence... everything about him is just through the roof.

And second, the team has put him in a position where he has every single thing he could possibly need to succeed. He's surrounded by a supporting cast of one of the top O-lines in the league, one of the best feature backs in the league, one of the top tight-end duos, and arguably the best top-to-bottom wide receiver corps in the NFL. And all of them under the tutelage of one of the best coaching staffs in the league.

For him to regress substantially would almost have to be a total internal meltdown of some sort, and that's the last thing I would ever expect to see from this kid.

Good points. We all learned last year just how good these receivers are - kinda shocking given their age and maturity and that they'll only get better. And with 5 picks in rounds 1 through 3, it'sonly gonna get better.

So GB is where Love can make a lotta money and have a chance at an MVP and SB very early in his career. And I don't think his performance last year, or the performance of the receivers, was a fluke. All of these guys are the real deal. Gotta give Gluten his due for finding all of these guys, including Love, in the first place. And yeah, I didn't like the Love pick but am happy to be wrong.

 

[AKCheese]

In a perfect world we’d pump the brakes right here. Halfway through the season Jordan Love was being deemed “not the guy” (and worse) in many circles. People were calling for him to be benched so we could see what Clifford had. He had a great second half. Was this “just” a nice run? Or was it his career clearing the tower and taking off? Even in the darkest days I said we needed to (and he would be given) until the end of the 2024 season. There are more than a few guys who have flashed half a good season and gone on to be pretty ordinary. Green Bay has to consider that. I’m not sure how much leeway for creativity there is in NFL contracting, but if a deal is done this spring we could see a very very unique deal. Again in a perfect world I’d give him a one year deal paying him around #10 money - then HOPE you get burned and have to pony up $5-10 mil more per year than you could have locked him in for on a long term deal this spring.

 

[Heyjoe4]

In a perfect world we’d pump the brakes right here. Halfway through the season Jordan Love was being deemed “not the guy” (and worse) in many circles. People were calling for him to be benched so we could see what Clifford had. He had a great second half. Was this “just” a nice run? Or was it his career clearing the tower and taking off? Even in the darkest days I said we needed to (and he would be given) until the end of the 2024 season. There are more than a few guys who have flashed half a good season and gone on to be pretty ordinary. Green Bay has to consider that. I’m not sure how much leeway for creativity there is in NFL contracting, but if a deal is done this spring we could see a very very unique deal. Again in a perfect world I’d give him a one year deal paying him around #10 money - then HOPE you get burned and have to pony up $5-10 mil more per year than you could have locked him in for on a long term deal this spring.

There certainly is risk involved - signing a guy to a 4 or 5 year deal, a very expensive deal, based on a half season and two very good playoff games.

I remember Joe Flacco leading the Ravens to a SB win, and then getting, at the time, a huge contract. Flacco didn't come close to earning that contract in subsequent years.

I'm on the side of - extend him another 4 year-end give him the money the top 5-10 guys get, closer to top 5. I don't think his play was an aberration. He's the real deal.