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<blockquote data-quote="Magooch" data-source="post: 954626" data-attributes="member: 17987"><p>Seems like the best place to drop this. </p><p>I've seen a lot of talk about how much production can really be expected out of a rookie wide receiver. Of course, a lot of that is going to come down to scheme, quarterback, competition at WR (for instance, we've talked about how first-year WRs in GB have often faced a very crowded and well-established WR room, likely bringing their impact down), any number of things. But, just looking at some raw numbers, here is what I found. </p><p></p><p>I pretty much just looked at WRs taken in the first three rounds in the last 5 years. Of course there are some exceptions, but by-and-large you're not finding a lot of Year One "Impact" players past the first few rounds. </p><p></p><p>Keeping it pretty simple...just looked at total receptions, total yards, and total TDs in their rookie seasons - and then split each category into four "tiers" each: For receptions I looked at players who had 50+, players who had 25-49 rec, players who had 10-24, and players who had less than 10 rec their rookie season. For yards, I split it as 500+ yards, 250-499 yards, 100-249 yards, and 0-99 yards. And finally, for TDs - 5+ TD, 3-4 TD, 1-2 TD, and 0 TD. Oh, and it's all regular season only, for now. </p><p></p><p>Anyways, with all that in mind...</p><p></p><p>There were 20 players taken in the first three rounds in the last 5 years who topped 50+ rec in their rookie season. They are:</p><p>JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017, 2/62) - 58 rec; Cooper Kupp (2017, 3/69) - 62 ; DJ Moore (2018, 1/24) - 55 ; Calvin Ridley (2018, 1/26) - 64 ; Deebo Samuel (2019, 2/36) - 57; AJ Brown (2019, 2/51) - 52; DK Metcalf (2019, 2/64) - 58; Diontae Johnson (2019, 3/66) - 59; Terry McLaurin (2019, 3/76) - 58; Jerry Jeudy (2020, 1/15) - 52; CeeDee Lamb (2020, 1/17) - 74; Justin Jefferson (2020, 1/22) - 88; Brandon Aiyuk (2020, 1/25) - 60; Tee Higgins (2020, 2/33) - 67; Laviska Shenault (2020, 2/42) - 58; Chase Claypool (2020, 2/49) - 62; Ja'Marr Chase (2021, 1/5) - 81; Jaylen Waddle (2021, 1/6) - 104; DeVonta Smith (2021, 1/10) - 64; Rondale Moore (2021, 2/49) - 54</p><p></p><p>Additionally there were another 28 who topped 500+ yards in their first season:</p><p>JuJu Smith-Schuster - 917; Cooper Kupp - 869; Chris Godwin (2017, 3/84) - 525; DJ Moore - 788; Calvin Ridley - 821; Courtland Sutton (2018, 2/40) - 704; Christian Kirk (2018, 2/47) - 590; Michael Gallup (2018, 3/81) - 507; Marquise Brown (2019, 1/25) - 584; Deebo Samuel - 802; AJ Brown - 1,051; Mecole Hardman (2019, 2/56) - 538; DK Metcalf - 900; Diontae Johnson - 680; Terry McLaurin - 919; Jerry Jeudy - 856; CeeDee Lamb - 935; Justin Jefferson - 1,400; Brandon Aiyuk - 748; Tee Higgins - 908; Michael Pittman Jr (2020, 2/34) - 503; Laviska Shenault - 600; Chase Claypool - 873; Ja'Marr Chase - 1,455; Jaylen Waddle - 1,015; DeVonta Smith - 916, Rashod Bateman (2021, 1/27) - 515; Elijah Moore (2021, 2/34) - 538</p><p></p><p>And there were 22 who caught 5 or more touchdowns:</p><p>JuJu Smith-Schuster - 7; Cooper Kupp - 5; Calvin Ridley - 10; Dante Pettis (2018, 2/44) - 5; Anthony Miller (2018, 2/51) - 7; TreQuan Smith (2018, 3/91) - 5; Marquise Brown - 7; AJ Brown - 8; Mecole Hardman - 6; DK Metcalf - 7; Diontae Johnson - 5; Terry McLaurin - 7; CeeDee Lamb - 5; Justin Jefferson - 7; Brandon Aiyuk - 5; Tee Higgins - 6; Laviska Shenault - 8; Chase Claypool - 9; JaMarr Chase - 13; Jaylen Waddle - 6; DeVonta Smith - 5; Elijah Moore - 5</p><p></p><p>So finally, looking at all three...By my count there have been 13 players drafted in the first three rounds of each of the last 5 drafts who have caught at least 50 receptions, 500 yards, and 5 TD in their rookie seasons (regular season). They are:</p><p>2017 - JuJu Smith-Schuster (2/62) - 58 rec, 917 yards, 7 TD</p><p>2017 - Cooper Kupp (3/69) - 62 rec, 869 yards, 5 TD</p><p>2018 - Calvin Ridley (1/26) - 64 rec, 821 yards, 10 TD</p><p>2019 - AJ Brown (2/51) - 52 rec, 1051 yards, 8 TD</p><p>2019 - DK Metcalf (2/64) - 58 rec, 900 yards, 7 TD</p><p>2019 - Diontae Johnson (3/66) - 59 rec, 680 yards, 5 TD</p><p>2019 - Terry McLaurin (3/76) - 58 rec, 919 yards, 7 TD</p><p>2020 - CeeDee Lamb (1/17) - 74 rec, 935 yards, 5 TD</p><p>2020 - Justin Jefferson (1/22) - 88 rec, 1400 yards, 7 TD</p><p>2020 - Brandon Aiyuk (1/25) - 60 rec, 748 yards, 5 TD</p><p>2020 - Tee Higgins (2/33) - 67 rec, 908 yards, 6 TD</p><p>2020 - Laviska Shenault (2/42) - 58 rec, 600 yards, 8 TD</p><p>2020 - Chase Claypool (2/49) - 62 rec, 873 yards, 9 TD</p><p>2021 - JaMarr Chase (1/5) - 81 rec, 1455 yards, 13 TD</p><p>2021 - Jaylen Waddle (1/6) - 104 rec, 1015 yards, 6 TD</p><p>2021 - DeVonta Smith (1/10) - 64 rec, 916 yards, 5 TD</p><p></p><p>So, for whatever it's worth, 12 of those 13 came at the 22nd pick or later, if that means anything <img src="/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/tongue.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":p" title="Stick Out Tongue :p" data-shortname=":p" /></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Magooch, post: 954626, member: 17987"] Seems like the best place to drop this. I've seen a lot of talk about how much production can really be expected out of a rookie wide receiver. Of course, a lot of that is going to come down to scheme, quarterback, competition at WR (for instance, we've talked about how first-year WRs in GB have often faced a very crowded and well-established WR room, likely bringing their impact down), any number of things. But, just looking at some raw numbers, here is what I found. I pretty much just looked at WRs taken in the first three rounds in the last 5 years. Of course there are some exceptions, but by-and-large you're not finding a lot of Year One "Impact" players past the first few rounds. Keeping it pretty simple...just looked at total receptions, total yards, and total TDs in their rookie seasons - and then split each category into four "tiers" each: For receptions I looked at players who had 50+, players who had 25-49 rec, players who had 10-24, and players who had less than 10 rec their rookie season. For yards, I split it as 500+ yards, 250-499 yards, 100-249 yards, and 0-99 yards. And finally, for TDs - 5+ TD, 3-4 TD, 1-2 TD, and 0 TD. Oh, and it's all regular season only, for now. Anyways, with all that in mind... There were 20 players taken in the first three rounds in the last 5 years who topped 50+ rec in their rookie season. They are: JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017, 2/62) - 58 rec; Cooper Kupp (2017, 3/69) - 62 ; DJ Moore (2018, 1/24) - 55 ; Calvin Ridley (2018, 1/26) - 64 ; Deebo Samuel (2019, 2/36) - 57; AJ Brown (2019, 2/51) - 52; DK Metcalf (2019, 2/64) - 58; Diontae Johnson (2019, 3/66) - 59; Terry McLaurin (2019, 3/76) - 58; Jerry Jeudy (2020, 1/15) - 52; CeeDee Lamb (2020, 1/17) - 74; Justin Jefferson (2020, 1/22) - 88; Brandon Aiyuk (2020, 1/25) - 60; Tee Higgins (2020, 2/33) - 67; Laviska Shenault (2020, 2/42) - 58; Chase Claypool (2020, 2/49) - 62; Ja'Marr Chase (2021, 1/5) - 81; Jaylen Waddle (2021, 1/6) - 104; DeVonta Smith (2021, 1/10) - 64; Rondale Moore (2021, 2/49) - 54 Additionally there were another 28 who topped 500+ yards in their first season: JuJu Smith-Schuster - 917; Cooper Kupp - 869; Chris Godwin (2017, 3/84) - 525; DJ Moore - 788; Calvin Ridley - 821; Courtland Sutton (2018, 2/40) - 704; Christian Kirk (2018, 2/47) - 590; Michael Gallup (2018, 3/81) - 507; Marquise Brown (2019, 1/25) - 584; Deebo Samuel - 802; AJ Brown - 1,051; Mecole Hardman (2019, 2/56) - 538; DK Metcalf - 900; Diontae Johnson - 680; Terry McLaurin - 919; Jerry Jeudy - 856; CeeDee Lamb - 935; Justin Jefferson - 1,400; Brandon Aiyuk - 748; Tee Higgins - 908; Michael Pittman Jr (2020, 2/34) - 503; Laviska Shenault - 600; Chase Claypool - 873; Ja'Marr Chase - 1,455; Jaylen Waddle - 1,015; DeVonta Smith - 916, Rashod Bateman (2021, 1/27) - 515; Elijah Moore (2021, 2/34) - 538 And there were 22 who caught 5 or more touchdowns: JuJu Smith-Schuster - 7; Cooper Kupp - 5; Calvin Ridley - 10; Dante Pettis (2018, 2/44) - 5; Anthony Miller (2018, 2/51) - 7; TreQuan Smith (2018, 3/91) - 5; Marquise Brown - 7; AJ Brown - 8; Mecole Hardman - 6; DK Metcalf - 7; Diontae Johnson - 5; Terry McLaurin - 7; CeeDee Lamb - 5; Justin Jefferson - 7; Brandon Aiyuk - 5; Tee Higgins - 6; Laviska Shenault - 8; Chase Claypool - 9; JaMarr Chase - 13; Jaylen Waddle - 6; DeVonta Smith - 5; Elijah Moore - 5 So finally, looking at all three...By my count there have been 13 players drafted in the first three rounds of each of the last 5 drafts who have caught at least 50 receptions, 500 yards, and 5 TD in their rookie seasons (regular season). They are: 2017 - JuJu Smith-Schuster (2/62) - 58 rec, 917 yards, 7 TD 2017 - Cooper Kupp (3/69) - 62 rec, 869 yards, 5 TD 2018 - Calvin Ridley (1/26) - 64 rec, 821 yards, 10 TD 2019 - AJ Brown (2/51) - 52 rec, 1051 yards, 8 TD 2019 - DK Metcalf (2/64) - 58 rec, 900 yards, 7 TD 2019 - Diontae Johnson (3/66) - 59 rec, 680 yards, 5 TD 2019 - Terry McLaurin (3/76) - 58 rec, 919 yards, 7 TD 2020 - CeeDee Lamb (1/17) - 74 rec, 935 yards, 5 TD 2020 - Justin Jefferson (1/22) - 88 rec, 1400 yards, 7 TD 2020 - Brandon Aiyuk (1/25) - 60 rec, 748 yards, 5 TD 2020 - Tee Higgins (2/33) - 67 rec, 908 yards, 6 TD 2020 - Laviska Shenault (2/42) - 58 rec, 600 yards, 8 TD 2020 - Chase Claypool (2/49) - 62 rec, 873 yards, 9 TD 2021 - JaMarr Chase (1/5) - 81 rec, 1455 yards, 13 TD 2021 - Jaylen Waddle (1/6) - 104 rec, 1015 yards, 6 TD 2021 - DeVonta Smith (1/10) - 64 rec, 916 yards, 5 TD So, for whatever it's worth, 12 of those 13 came at the 22nd pick or later, if that means anything :P [/QUOTE]
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