Why I Love The 2026-2027 Green Bay Packers

[milani]

Luther Burton will be just as good I believe.

Showed a lot last year.

 

[milani]

I think there is upside with Chicago's offense, Caleb year 3, Year 2 in Johnson's system. But what do you think about the significant things going against them such as

1. The Turnovers regressing to the mean

2. The less than 1 TD score games equalling out more

3. Caleb's incredible low % big time completions regressing to the mean.

Those 3 things would scare the hell out of me if I were Chicago.

I am betting on Caleb Williams getting over 4k yards, but I was hoping their win total would be set at 10.5 so I could buy it to 11.5 and be comfortable.

That is where coaching and injuries become the difference. Johnson is a better coach than what Chi has had since Lovie. Last year's final Bear record was due in part to how they started. They eventually got over the hump, reduced their penalties, and found ways to win the close ones. The wins in Vegas and in Washington proved to be the turning points. In past seasons the Bears lose those games like they would lose to the Packers. Had they lost them I believe they would have caved and it is same old same old.

 

[milani]

Chicago is one of those teams, and knowing @Calebs Revenge he even knows it, that many statistics (some mentioned above) point towards major regression to more normal levels and that easily could mean 4 or so more losses without blinking. Now some of that could be offset if Caleb can play just a tiny bit more in the first half of games like he does in the second half games....statistically the Bears are an enigma of a team I don't dare try to predict....you could tell me you placed a $100 bet that they'd win 6 or fewer games and I'd be as confident with that as I would saying 13 or more....

Aside from statistics Johnson has brought a winning attitude. The team plays hard all 4 quarters and then some. In the past Bear head coaches inspired a " hope we can win " mindset. Now the Bear players " believe " they will win. And that affects performance. Now the league will find out if the Bears will move up to the next level or simply be only a perennial division contender.

 

[CarryTheG14]

Chicago is one of those teams, and knowing @Calebs Revenge he even knows it, that many statistics (some mentioned above) point towards major regression to more normal levels and that easily could mean 4 or so more losses without blinking. Now some of that could be offset if Caleb can play just a tiny bit more in the first half of games like he does in the second half games....statistically the Bears are an enigma of a team I don't dare try to predict....you could tell me you placed a $100 bet that they'd win 6 or fewer games and I'd be as confident with that as I would saying 13 or more....

Caleb is the ultimate Wild Card. We have to be honest though. He wasn't good last year. He's being heavily propped up from his insane/clutch throws he made. A sub 60% passing percentage, a sub 7 YPA, one of the highest off target throws in the league. He's gotta show a lot more consistency to be considered a difference maker .

That is where coaching and injuries become the difference. Johnson is a better coach than what Chi has had since Lovie. Last year's final Bear record was due in part to how they started. They eventually got over the hump, reduced their penalties, and found ways to win the close ones. The wins in Vegas and in Washington proved to be the turning points. In past seasons the Bears lose those games like they would lose to the Packers. Had they lost them I believe they would have caved and it is same old same old.

Maybe/probably. I think those close games are so fickle, and largely to do with the TOs which they won't replicate. I would be shocked if they finish 1 or 2 in the division. I bet there's a bunch greater chance they're 4th.

 

[milani]

Caleb is the ultimate Wild Card. We have to be honest though. He wasn't good last year. He's being heavily propped up from his insane/clutch throws he made. A sub 60% passing percentage, a sub 7 YPA, one of the highest off target throws in the league. He's gotta show a lot more consistency to be considered a difference maker .


Maybe/probably. I think those close games are so fickle, and largely to do with the TOs which they won't replicate. I would be shocked if they finish 1 or 2 in the division. I bet there's a bunch greater chance they're 4th.

No matter what Caleb's numbers were against the rest of the league, they were good against the Packers. He almost beat us 3 times single-handedly in 2025. Of the players who hit us hard last season; Pickens, Dowdle, Henry, and Nix, Caleb is the one who I wish we could have avoided.

 

[gopkrs]

Luther Burton will be just as good I believe.

Still. I'm glad they don't have Moore.

 

[OldSchool101]

Chicago is one of those teams, and knowing @Calebs Revenge he even knows it, that many statistics (some mentioned above) point towards major regression to more normal levels and that easily could mean 4 or so more losses without blinking. Now some of that could be offset if Caleb can play just a tiny bit more in the first half of games like he does in the second half games....statistically the Bears are an enigma of a team I don't dare try to predict....you could tell me you placed a $100 bet that they'd win 6 or fewer games and I'd be as confident with that as I would saying 13 or more....

Chicago pushed their $ chips in pretty good to open 2024. Then Ben did a nice job turning the Offense around. That said we always talk about how 2nd year coaching can allow other division teams to figure you out. That’s kinda what happened to Hafley last season. We added Micah and went from a #5 ranked D snd shrunk outside the Top 10 group. Now I like Hafley, but imo what separates the truly great Coordinator from the good ones is staying ahead of their opponent by not becoming predictable. Last year we started strong, but by Q3 it felt like opponents were figuring us out.

I guess I have alot of confidence in 2026 GB. Our staff is exceptionally experienced now. We retained a mixture of old coaching (Covington) and added some mix of new. I don’t see anything that would make me think our D will regress we actually get a nice injection of talent and I could see us clawing back into a Top 10 scoring Unit.

On Offense we did lose Doubs. Yet Golden should start clicking a little more in year 2. Plus a portion of Doubs production was being the recipient of Watson and Reed combining for a most 17 games. Hopefully we won’t lose Reed in Week1

I’m excited to see Lukas opposite Micah and even to see Cox Jr or Oliver or Sorrell (+ DDS) getting in the mix more.

Change isn’t always good. Yet getting a Bonafide PR and PK brings some excitement also. That 2025 Teams group really held us back aside from Punting.

 

[Calebs Revenge]

I think there is upside with Chicago's offense, Caleb year 3, Year 2 in Johnson's system. But what do you think about the significant things going against them such as

1. The Turnovers regressing to the mean

2. The less than 1 TD score games equalling out more

3. Caleb's incredible low % big time completions regressing to the mean.

Those 3 things would scare the hell out of me if I were Chicago.

I am betting on Caleb Williams getting over 4k yards, but I was hoping their win total would be set at 10.5 so I could buy it to 11.5 and be comfortable.

Lots of drops by *cough* Rome..... and others.
My guy just getting started.
Losing a C and HoF LG is our weak point....maybe. We have some lumberjacks and a deer in da TE room.
That's why we play da games.
Hope Murray sux in Minn.
we can agree on that.

 

[CarryTheG14]

Lots of drops by *cough* Rome..... and others.
My guy just getting started.
Losing a C and HoF LG is our weak point....maybe. We have some lumberjacks and a deer in da TE room.
That's why we play da games.
Hope Murray sux in Minn.
we can agree on that.

I made a lot of money off Caleb's passing yards prop last year and already have money on it now ( it went up like 100 yards already)

I personally like when Chicago is good compared to Minny, and don't get me started on Detroit.

 

[milani]

I made a lot of money off Caleb's passing yards prop last year and already have money on it now ( it went up like 100 yards already)

I personally like when Chicago is good compared to Minny, and don't get me started on Detroit.

It is a 4 team competitive division.

 

[CarryTheG14]

It is a 4 team competitive division.

I'd be shocked if Minny won the division, but I wouldn't be floored.

 

[Magooch]

It will probably seem like sour grapes* but I do think the Bears are a big candidate for regression this season. Honestly in a lot of ways they remind me of the Vikings the year prior (except the Vikings were better defensively...)

- Last season they had a really mediocre-to-bad defense overall. They allowed the 4th-most total yards and yards per play in the league, finished 23rd in defensive EPA, and were 26th in pressure rate. They did very little to address their terrible pass rush, and are having some heavy turnover in the secondary - apparently hoping to be able to offset most of that thru their rookie safety they've added in Thieneman. Tyrique Stevenson and Jaylon Johnson look set to feature heavily at CB but both were average-at-best last season.

- On top of all that, the defense was VERY much buoyed by generating turnovers. As you may have heard before, turnovers are one of the single-most volatile metrics in the game. Last season they led the league with 33; the season prior they were 11th with 24. Teams almost never go back-to-back as turnover leaders. Even if you didn't take into account any of the personnel changes, a turnover-regression alone would seriously hurt their defense. Overall, I think it is more likely the defense is worse this season rather than better compared to last season.

- Relatedly, in another volatile metric - the Bears went 7-4 in one-score games, 8-5 if you include the postseason. League average win percentage in one-score games is right around 50%; last season they were about 62-64% here. One might reasonably also expect 1-2 more losses on this basis alone...

- And the context for this - last season Chicago had the 3rd-eastiest preseason strength of schedule, and ended up finishing the year with the 4th-easiest strength of schedule. This year their preseason strength of schedule is the most difficult in the league. Simple Rating System, which accounts for strength of schedule and point differential, had the Bears as the 17th-ranked team in the league last season.

And looking in particular at Caleb...

- Last season he had the third-highest bad throw percentage and second-lowest on target percentage, and the lowest completion percentage of any playoff-bound QB since 2012

- Out of 30 qualified passers, Williams was 19th in EPA per play, 24th in pass success rate, 29th in completion percentage over expectation, and 20th in adjusted EPA per play.

- Similarly, he finished last season 17th in QBR and 22nd in passer rating

- per PFF, Caleb was 18th in overall passing grade. He was 21st in pass yards per attempt, 18th in turnover worth throw rate, 29th in accuracy rate, and 32nd in adjusted completion rate.

- from the previous season, Williams' completion rating under pressure declined; he took less sacks overall but also was the second-slowest QB in the league in time to throw, and by extension his total attempts made under pressure increased

- Speaking again of turnover-volatility, we saw in 2024 that Caleb had 6 interceptions to go against 12 "expected" interceptions. In other words, he threw 12 balls that "should" have been picked, but only 6 were. As you might expect that number balanced out some last season - his turnover-worthy-throws-to-interceptions rate nearly doubled from 26.7% in 2024 to 45% in 2025, and it followed that total INTS doubled from 6 in 2024 to 12 in 2025. At the same time, he had just 8.4 "credited" turnovers last season against 16 "turnover worthy plays" (in this sense - some plays generated a turnover that "shouldn't have," but more plays that *didn't* result in a turnover "should have".)


*Just to look somewhat objective, it would not surprise me if the Packers take a step back this season as well. On a related note, we had the 9th-easiest schedule last season, and are projected the 3rd-hardest this season. On the whole, I think there are reasons for optimism and reasons for doubt on both sides

 

[milani]

I'd be shocked if Minny won the division, but I wouldn't be floored.

One play in Minny and the Bears have one less win in 2025. One play in Chicago and the Bears have another less win in 2025. In Cousin's last season in Minnesota the Vikings escaped with a lot of one score wins. I think a lot of what happens in this division like others will come down to injuries and coaching.

 

[milani]

It will probably seem like sour grapes* but I do think the Bears are a big candidate for regression this season. Honestly in a lot of ways they remind me of the Vikings the year prior (except the Vikings were better defensively...)

- Last season they had a really mediocre-to-bad defense overall. They allowed the 4th-most total yards and yards per play in the league, finished 23rd in defensive EPA, and were 26th in pressure rate. They did very little to address their terrible pass rush, and are having some heavy turnover in the secondary - apparently hoping to be able to offset most of that thru their rookie safety they've added in Thieneman. Tyrique Stevenson and Jaylon Johnson look set to feature heavily at CB but both were average-at-best last season.

- On top of all that, the defense was VERY much buoyed by generating turnovers. As you may have heard before, turnovers are one of the single-most volatile metrics in the game. Last season they led the league with 33; the season prior they were 11th with 24. Teams almost never go back-to-back as turnover leaders. Even if you didn't take into account any of the personnel changes, a turnover-regression alone would seriously hurt their defense. Overall, I think it is more likely the defense is worse this season rather than better compared to last season.

- Relatedly, in another volatile metric - the Bears went 7-4 in one-score games, 8-5 if you include the postseason. League average win percentage in one-score games is right around 50%; last season they were about 62-64% here. One might reasonably also expect 1-2 more losses on this basis alone...

- And the context for this - last season Chicago had the 3rd-eastiest preseason strength of schedule, and ended up finishing the year with the 4th-easiest strength of schedule. This year their preseason strength of schedule is the most difficult in the league. Simple Rating System, which accounts for strength of schedule and point differential, had the Bears as the 17th-ranked team in the league last season.

And looking in particular at Caleb...

- Last season he had the third-highest bad throw percentage and second-lowest on target percentage, and the lowest completion percentage of any playoff-bound QB since 2012

- Out of 30 qualified passers, Williams was 19th in EPA per play, 24th in pass success rate, 29th in completion percentage over expectation, and 20th in adjusted EPA per play.

- Similarly, he finished last season 17th in QBR and 22nd in passer rating

- per PFF, Caleb was 18th in overall passing grade. He was 21st in pass yards per attempt, 18th in turnover worth throw rate, 29th in accuracy rate, and 32nd in adjusted completion rate.

- from the previous season, Williams' completion rating under pressure declined; he took less sacks overall but also was the second-slowest QB in the league in time to throw, and by extension his total attempts made under pressure increased

- Speaking again of turnover-volatility, we saw in 2024 that Caleb had 6 interceptions to go against 12 "expected" interceptions. In other words, he threw 12 balls that "should" have been picked, but only 6 were. As you might expect that number balanced out some last season - his turnover-worthy-throws-to-interceptions rate nearly doubled from 26.7% in 2024 to 45% in 2025, and it followed that total INTS doubled from 6 in 2024 to 12 in 2025. At the same time, he had just 8.4 "credited" turnovers last season against 16 "turnover worthy plays" (in this sense - some plays generated a turnover that "shouldn't have," but more plays that *didn't* result in a turnover "should have".)


*Just to look somewhat objective, it would not surprise me if the Packers take a step back this season as well. On a related note, we had the 9th-easiest schedule last season, and are projected the 3rd-hardest this season. On the whole, I think there are reasons for optimism and reasons for doubt on both sides

The upside for Chicago is that CW is very young yet. And he will only get better as the team around him matures. Whatever his numbers were in 2025 the dude made numerous near impossible plays that other QBs would not replicate, both with his arm and his feet. And to his benefit he is playing for a much better HC in Chicago now than that team has seen since Lovie. Giving the guy 3 downs to make a first down is challenging enough. Give him 4 downs and it becomes very difficult, which this coach will. The Bears appeared to have more difficulty with the Lions than they did with either the Vikings or Packers in 2025. And that trend may continue.

 

[CarryTheG14]

Well, that sucks. LAR just got Myles Garrett

 

[tynimiller]

Well, that sucks. LAR just got Myles Garrett

But will be giving up Jared Verse and a first as the main things back....that is an All Pro level dude.

 

[gopkrs]

Will Morgan be able to contain Garrett?

 

[tynimiller]

Will Morgan be able to contain Garrett?

No one can answer this, as it only exists in the future.

However, Garrett is one of very few guys you don't consistently beat 1 on 1...you will lose, the key is trying to avoid losing massively and/or mitigate the true losses to as few as possible.

 

[Firethorn1001]

Here come the sky is falling doom and gloomers.

 

[tynimiller]

Here come the sky is falling doom and gloomers.

Right...every move another team makes is perfect and every move Gute makes is autrocious...just something I've grown to expect.


NOT saying anyone hinted or even said that type of thing yet here before anyone comes at me.

 

[Magooch]

I mean it's rough. Garrett basically destroyed our offensive gameplan when we played the Browns early last season and the Browns are a much, MUCH worse team than the Rams. That's a tough add for us to potentially face, no two ways around it.

But if I am being perfectly honest that Rams game (and any potential playoff matchup) was always going to be a tough matchup, Garrett or not. And to be totally frank I think they are a team who are in a slightly higher echelon than us right now. Any given Sunday and all that, but generally speaking if I'm being objective I think they'd probably beat us more often than we'd beat them in an isolated matchup. Like, their average performance beats our average performance, I guess. So even without Garrett I'm of the mind that we would need to play a better-than-average best-performance-of-the-season type of showing out of us in order to beat them either way. That doesn't really change now. The bar is a little higher but we were always going to need to be at our best (or them at their worst) for us to win IMO

 

[Magooch]

On a positive note too, while that top EDGE rotation with Garrett, Fiske, and Turner is obviously very strong, they are really thin for proven and experienced depth elsewhere IMO.

Prior to Garrett,

Behind Turner at LDE you have Larrell Murchison and Jaxson Moi. Murchison is a 6-year veteran with 20 career solo tackles and 4 career sacks. Moi is a rookie UDFA.

At RDE you have Fiske and then Tyler Davis, Payton Zdroik, and Jalen Logan-Redding. In two years, Davis has a total of 26 solo tackles and 1.5 sacks; Zdroik and Logan-Redding are both UDFA rookies.

With Verse gone the SLB will probably go to Desjuan Johnson, backed up by Keir Thomas II and Darryl Peterson III. Keir Thomas is a career backup and Peterson is another rookie UDFA. Johnson was Mr. Irrelevant in 2023 and has only ever been a rotation type player who they will now be banking on making a big step up.

So I mean make no mistake, they are better now than before, but (like many teams) just an injury or two and suddenly they're looking extremely thin

 

[Firethorn1001]

I guess. So even without Garrett I'm of the mind that we would need to play a better-than-average best-performance-of-the-season type of showing out of us in order to beat them either way. That doesn't really change now. The bar is a little higher but we were always going to need to be at our best (or them at their worst) for us to win IMO

Noted, but it's June 1st. I'm not going to worry about what the Packers need to do to beat certain teams until at least after the season starts.

As you noted, injury happens and suddenly everything is different.

 

[milani]

I mean it's rough. Garrett basically destroyed our offensive gameplan when we played the Browns early last season and the Browns are a much, MUCH worse team than the Rams. That's a tough add for us to potentially face, no two ways around it.

But if I am being perfectly honest that Rams game (and any potential playoff matchup) was always going to be a tough matchup, Garrett or not. And to be totally frank I think they are a team who are in a slightly higher echelon than us right now. Any given Sunday and all that, but generally speaking if I'm being objective I think they'd probably beat us more often than we'd beat them in an isolated matchup. Like, their average performance beats our average performance, I guess. So even without Garrett I'm of the mind that we would need to play a better-than-average best-performance-of-the-season type of showing out of us in order to beat them either way. That doesn't really change now. The bar is a little higher but we were always going to need to be at our best (or them at their worst) for us to win IMO

The Rams know what they need to compete with Darnold and the Seahawks along with CM and the 9ers.
The Packers dealt with some fierce names on the opposing D. The question is how to plan for it. How do you match up. And are there more defensive weapons beside Garrett that are dangerous?
We faced Parsons when he was with the Boys and we put up points.
We went out to SF against Bosa and put up 30.
We beat the Lions with Hutchinson several times.
The entire offense has to be dialed in along with your FG team.
The great Packer teams faced names like Deacon Jones, Alex Karras, Merlin Olsen, Rosey Grier, Roger Brown, Gino Marchetti, Sam Huff, Bob Lily, and **** Butkus that took shots at the Packers.
Lombardi's offenses went up against HOF DLs and LBs. And even though the defense helped the offense, Starr and company did enough to win most of the time and put up plenty of points.
We did not need 30 to beat the Browns that day. We did not even need 20. MLF just did not plan well against a bad Brown team.

 

[OldSchool101]

It will probably seem like sour grapes* but I do think the Bears are a big candidate for regression this season. Honestly in a lot of ways they remind me of the Vikings the year prior (except the Vikings were better defensively...)

- Last season they had a really mediocre-to-bad defense overall. They allowed the 4th-most total yards and yards per play in the league, finished 23rd in defensive EPA, and were 26th in pressure rate. They did very little to address their terrible pass rush, and are having some heavy turnover in the secondary - apparently hoping to be able to offset most of that thru their rookie safety they've added in Thieneman. Tyrique Stevenson and Jaylon Johnson look set to feature heavily at CB but both were average-at-best last season.

- On top of all that, the defense was VERY much buoyed by generating turnovers. As you may have heard before, turnovers are one of the single-most volatile metrics in the game. Last season they led the league with 33; the season prior they were 11th with 24. Teams almost never go back-to-back as turnover leaders. Even if you didn't take into account any of the personnel changes, a turnover-regression alone would seriously hurt their defense. Overall, I think it is more likely the defense is worse this season rather than better compared to last season.

- Relatedly, in another volatile metric - the Bears went 7-4 in one-score games, 8-5 if you include the postseason. League average win percentage in one-score games is right around 50%; last season they were about 62-64% here. One might reasonably also expect 1-2 more losses on this basis alone...

- And the context for this - last season Chicago had the 3rd-eastiest preseason strength of schedule, and ended up finishing the year with the 4th-easiest strength of schedule. This year their preseason strength of schedule is the most difficult in the league. Simple Rating System, which accounts for strength of schedule and point differential, had the Bears as the 17th-ranked team in the league last season.

And looking in particular at Caleb...

- Last season he had the third-highest bad throw percentage and second-lowest on target percentage, and the lowest completion percentage of any playoff-bound QB since 2012

- Out of 30 qualified passers, Williams was 19th in EPA per play, 24th in pass success rate, 29th in completion percentage over expectation, and 20th in adjusted EPA per play.

- Similarly, he finished last season 17th in QBR and 22nd in passer rating

- per PFF, Caleb was 18th in overall passing grade. He was 21st in pass yards per attempt, 18th in turnover worth throw rate, 29th in accuracy rate, and 32nd in adjusted completion rate.

- from the previous season, Williams' completion rating under pressure declined; he took less sacks overall but also was the second-slowest QB in the league in time to throw, and by extension his total attempts made under pressure increased

- Speaking again of turnover-volatility, we saw in 2024 that Caleb had 6 interceptions to go against 12 "expected" interceptions. In other words, he threw 12 balls that "should" have been picked, but only 6 were. As you might expect that number balanced out some last season - his turnover-worthy-throws-to-interceptions rate nearly doubled from 26.7% in 2024 to 45% in 2025, and it followed that total INTS doubled from 6 in 2024 to 12 in 2025. At the same time, he had just 8.4 "credited" turnovers last season against 16 "turnover worthy plays" (in this sense - some plays generated a turnover that "shouldn't have," but more plays that *didn't* result in a turnover "should have".)


*Just to look somewhat objective, it would not surprise me if the Packers take a step back this season as well. On a related note, we had the 9th-easiest schedule last season, and are projected the 3rd-hardest this season. On the whole, I think there are reasons for optimism and reasons for doubt on both sides

Some great points there!

Not to nitpick but for accuracy. I did recheck our final SOS through all games including Postseason from 2025 (ESPN) As it changes real time after each game.
SOS difficulty ranked in 2025
Minnesota 3rd
Detroit 7th
Chicago 9th
Green Bay 18th.

ESPN factors schedule into their Power Index
Detroit #3 most powerful
GB #4
Chicago 14th
MN 27th