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Who do you want the Packers to draft? 2013
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 496353"><p></p><p> </p><p>It's a process. Surely the pre-Senior Bowl/pre-East West tape builds the foundation. Then adjustments are made, some quite dramatic and many incremental that in the aggregate have a major impact on the final outcome.</p><p> </p><p>The all-star games can cause a significant change in how a player is viewed. Fisher is a good example in the current class. Nobody had Fisher higher than low first round pre-Senior Bowl because of the level-of-competition uncertainties. Then at the Senior Bowl he showed he could handle the top DE/OLB draftees and shot up the board. Other less dramatic adjustments are surely made up and down the board.</p><p> </p><p>The Combine also helps to evaluate level-of-competition issues. It's difficult to tell if a guy is 4.45 or 4.60 looking at game tape. For example, if a WR has played against slow safeties, the tape could make him look like he has more long speed than he really has. The Combine gives teams a chance to evaluate both that guy and some of his college competitors for levels of athleticism. Athleticism is very important, regardless of college success. There is a step up in athletic competition in the NFL, and in the NFL a player will be asked to do things he was never asked to do in college. Is the capability present? Are minimum thresholds met? What do the athletic measureables say about the player's upside, which goes to draft value?</p><p> </p><p>Mayock's take on the Combine is if a player underperforms or outperforms expectations established from college tape, then it will lead scouts to reconcile the disparity by going back and reviewing the tape again.</p><p> </p><p>We talk a lot about FA signing failures. Many of these are scheme fit issues. That's from one NFL team to another. The question is more acute in the jump from college to the NFL. There is a record of the athletic characteristics of successful players at each position and in varying schemes in the NFL. The Combine provides perspective on the likelihood of success. There are no certainties, which is obvious from the numerous draft busts year after year, but athleticism weights the odds in your favor.</p><p> </p><p>One should ask, had Clay Matthews not had an outstanding Combine, particularly the 4.6 speed and eye popping 10-yard slit, would we have taken him at #26? Perhaps not. Perry's Combine was perhaps more impressive for the balance of speed/vertical/strength at 270 lbs. Would we have taken him without those numbers? Probably not.</p><p> </p><p>Pro Days provide a third look under professional direction. Most of the emphasis in the press is given to guys coming off injuries or guys who underperformed at the Combine...again, trying to suss out the potential upside. A less publicized aspect, probably because it is squishy and unmeasurable, is how well the player has absorbed the professional all-star game and Combine coaching and advice. Is there improvement in targeted areas?</p><p> </p><p>Throughout the process, there is the added component of character evaluation. Tape doesn't tell you much about that. Besides issues of past transgressions, a team will want to get additional input on how coachable a guy might be and how he stands up in the squishy area of football intelligence.</p><p> </p><p>If one adds up all of the incremental adjustments to player grades across 32 teams, and imagines a hypothetical draft done pre-Senior Bowl vs. the real thing in April, the difference would likely be dramatic.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 496353"] [FONT=Arial][/FONT] It's a process. Surely the pre-Senior Bowl/pre-East West tape builds the foundation. Then adjustments are made, some quite dramatic and many incremental that in the aggregate have a major impact on the final outcome. The all-star games can cause a significant change in how a player is viewed. Fisher is a good example in the current class. Nobody had Fisher higher than low first round pre-Senior Bowl because of the level-of-competition uncertainties. Then at the Senior Bowl he showed he could handle the top DE/OLB draftees and shot up the board. Other less dramatic adjustments are surely made up and down the board. The Combine also helps to evaluate level-of-competition issues. It's difficult to tell if a guy is 4.45 or 4.60 looking at game tape. For example, if a WR has played against slow safeties, the tape could make him look like he has more long speed than he really has. The Combine gives teams a chance to evaluate both that guy and some of his college competitors for levels of athleticism. Athleticism is very important, regardless of college success. There is a step up in athletic competition in the NFL, and in the NFL a player will be asked to do things he was never asked to do in college. Is the capability present? Are minimum thresholds met? What do the athletic measureables say about the player's upside, which goes to draft value? Mayock's take on the Combine is if a player underperforms or outperforms expectations established from college tape, then it will lead scouts to reconcile the disparity by going back and reviewing the tape again. We talk a lot about FA signing failures. Many of these are scheme fit issues. That's from one NFL team to another. The question is more acute in the jump from college to the NFL. There is a record of the athletic characteristics of successful players at each position and in varying schemes in the NFL. The Combine provides perspective on the likelihood of success. There are no certainties, which is obvious from the numerous draft busts year after year, but athleticism weights the odds in your favor. One should ask, had Clay Matthews not had an outstanding Combine, particularly the 4.6 speed and eye popping 10-yard slit, would we have taken him at #26? Perhaps not. Perry's Combine was perhaps more impressive for the balance of speed/vertical/strength at 270 lbs. Would we have taken him without those numbers? Probably not. Pro Days provide a third look under professional direction. Most of the emphasis in the press is given to guys coming off injuries or guys who underperformed at the Combine...again, trying to suss out the potential upside. A less publicized aspect, probably because it is squishy and unmeasurable, is how well the player has absorbed the professional all-star game and Combine coaching and advice. Is there improvement in targeted areas? Throughout the process, there is the added component of character evaluation. Tape doesn't tell you much about that. Besides issues of past transgressions, a team will want to get additional input on how coachable a guy might be and how he stands up in the squishy area of football intelligence. If one adds up all of the incremental adjustments to player grades across 32 teams, and imagines a hypothetical draft done pre-Senior Bowl vs. the real thing in April, the difference would likely be dramatic. [/QUOTE]
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