What "Gute" Type Early Picks Could We See...

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tynimiller

tynimiller

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I truly hope one of you experts are keeping a compiled list of these guys and a friend of mine is really wondering about 6-7 round targets of the Packers.

LOL

Late Day3 Gute tends to lean highly into guys that fit RAS for sure or have just had prolific atypical type production.

Interesting Day 3 tidbit on Gute is college preferences switch more to the less prolific programs vs how it seems Day 1 and 2 he leans much heavier to the prolific or power 5 type programs. Now yes, this is probably played out across the league to varying degrees, but Gute seems really to be there.

Day 1 - Schools he has selected: Louisville, Michigan, Maryland, Utah State, Georgia, Georgia, Georgia, Iowa
Day 2 -
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Arguably some would argue SDSt, UCLA are both powerhouse type programs...but still he doesn't go outside Power 5 a ton first couple days.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Gute hasn't missed a day1 guy IMO yet...which is nuts....absolutely nuts.

We have another season to see, but Stokes is nearing the "miss" status for me.

As far as Savage goes, I tend to disagree with you. While he hasn't been a complete flop, Gute traded 3 picks (#30, #114 and #118) to be able to draft Savage at #21. That is a lot of draft capital and as of Monday, Savage is a free agent.

That said, we can go back and forth on all the first 3 round misses by Gute and other GM's. However, I recognize the fact that despite Stokes and Savage, his 1st round picks have been really solid (LVN pending). I also wouldn't complain too much about his free agent signings, as well as what players he has and hasn't retained.
 
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tynimiller

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We have another season to see, but Stokes is nearing the "miss" status for me.

As far as Savage goes, I tend to disagree with you. While he hasn't been a complete flop, Gute traded 3 picks (#30, #114 and #118) to be able to draft Savage at #21. That is a lot of draft capital and as of Monday, Savage is a free agent.

That said, we can go back and forth on all the first 3 round misses by Gute and other GM's. However, I recognize the fact that despite Stokes and Savage, his 1st round picks have been really solid (LVN pending). I also wouldn't complain too much about his free agent signings, as well as what players he has and hasn't retained.

Savage is a starting level NFL Safety - that isn't a miss, I cannot get on board with this logic in any way personally speaking.

Has he been the elite or high level starting safety you'd hope you get with a Day1, valid - but Dwayne Haskins or Deandre Baker are misses from 2019 Day1..they aren't even in the league any more.

Also guys like Andre Dillard has no registered years as a teams primary starter...LJ Collier barely holding on to a roster spot last year only active 1 game.....

Those four guys are misses - whiffs of Day 1s from that draft.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Savage is a starting level NFL Safety - that isn't a miss, I cannot get on board with this logic in any way personally speaking.

Has he been the elite or high level starting safety you'd hope you get with a Day1, valid - but Dwayne Haskins or Deandre Baker are misses from 2019 Day1..they aren't even in the league any more.

Also guys like Andre Dillard has no registered years as a teams primary starter...LJ Collier barely holding on to a roster spot last year only active 1 game.....

Those four guys are misses - whiffs of Day 1s from that draft.
Which is why I said that he hasn't been a complete flop. Again, we could go back and forth on players that would have been better or worse for Gute to have drafted instead. Neither of us would be right or wrong, since we would both be using hindsight.

The final thing I will say about Savage is this. He was an expensive acquisition and got even more costly with his 5th year option. If Gute had a do-over, with that crystal ball in hand, he doesn't draft Savage. The goal with a first rounder should be a player that you will want to sign to a second contract, that wasn't the case with Savage.
 
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We have another season to see, but Stokes is nearing the "miss" status for me.

As far as Savage goes, I tend to disagree with you. While he hasn't been a complete flop, Gute traded 3 picks (#30, #114 and #118) to be able to draft Savage at #21. That is a lot of draft capital and as of Monday, Savage is a free agent.

That said, we can go back and forth on all the first 3 round misses by Gute and other GM's. However, I recognize the fact that despite Stokes and Savage, his 1st round picks have been really solid (LVN pending). I also wouldn't complain too much about his free agent signings, as well as what players he has and hasn't retained.
That is utterly disgusting. With those 3 picks we could have had Deebo Samuels, Tony Pollard and Dre Greenlaw, which would've been nice. Trading up for a less than average safety. Eesh.

Easily Gutekunst's biggest failure imo.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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That is utterly disgusting. With those 3 picks we could have had Deebo Samuels, Tony Pollard and Dre Greenlaw, which would've been nice. Trading up for a less than average safety. Eesh.

Easily Gutekunst's biggest failure imo.
Yeah but we also could have drafted.....fill in the names of 3 failed picks here.

While I agree with @tynimiller that they got some value as a starter from Savage, I'd have higher expectations, considering the draft investment they made in him.
 

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I maintain he was never a good starter. Bad teams are filled with bad starters.
 
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tynimiller

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I maintain he was never a good starter. Bad teams are filled with bad starters.

We haven’t been a bad team while he’s been here more than arguably two years…and one of those we made playoffs.

I don’t see a draftee as purely massive hit or strikeout like some…which to be fair both sides of thinking probably have merit for sure.
 

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We haven’t been a bad team while he’s been here more than arguably two years…and one of those we made playoffs.

I don’t see a draftee as purely massive hit or strikeout like some…which to be fair both sides of thinking probably have merit for sure.
I don't either. I just think you could have gotten a better performer than Savage in the 3rd or 4th round. Of course, I felt the same way about Dix.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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We haven’t been a bad team while he’s been here more than arguably two years…and one of those we made playoffs.

I don’t see a draftee as purely massive hit or strikeout like some…which to be fair both sides of thinking probably have merit for sure.
I don't either. I just think you could have gotten a better performer than Savage in the 3rd or 4th round. Of course, I felt the same way about Dix.

I tend to agree with PB here. For the draft capital (and money) that the Packers invested in Savage, they did not get a good return. Whether he is a starter or not, doesn't really matter IMO, because lets face it, we could have used a much better starter back there.

I also don't think you give him a pass by saying "we have had a good team while he has been here". Way too many factors to look at there and I would counter with the names of the players that the Packers cut, didn't play, etc. during that same time period.

Probably not a super accurate comparison, but it popped into my head. If you were rating Free Agent signings. You wouldn't say "Jimmy Graham can't be considered a bad signing, he started, did some things and the Packers won while he was here." Gute invested quite a bit of Money in Graham and he didn't give nearly the return on that investment as expected.
 
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tynimiller

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I tend to agree with PB here. For the draft capital (and money) that the Packers invested in Savage, they did not get a good return. Whether he is a starter or not, doesn't really matter IMO, because lets face it, we could have used a much better starter back there.

I also don't think you give him a pass by saying "we have had a good team while he has been here". Way too many factors to look at there and I would counter with the names of the players that the Packers cut, didn't play, etc. during that same time period.

Probably not a super accurate comparison, but it popped into my head. If you were rating Free Agent signings. You wouldn't say "Jimmy Graham can't be considered a bad signing, he started, did some things and the Packers won while he was here." Gute invested quite a bit of Money in Graham and he didn't give nearly the return on that investment as expected.

FTR in saying he wasn’t a miss I in no way meant a defense of picking him - in hindsight he absolutely wasn’t the pick.

At the time there was not a lot of trusted pundits that didn’t see a special player with ball skills.
 

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FTR in saying he wasn’t a miss I in no way meant a defense of picking him - in hindsight he absolutely wasn’t the pick.

At the time there was not a lot of trusted pundits that didn’t see a special player with ball skills.
I agree with you and reiterate, this discussion is totally based on hindsight and evaluating the outcome of the pick, not "Gute should have known that DK Metcalf was the player to take instead of Savage." People who want to tear into a GM solely because a draft pick doesn't fully pan out, don't have a good understanding of player development in the NFL. Nothing guarantees a draft pick being "worth it", but they do their best with the information they have at the time.

Now if you want to play the fun "what if he had done this" game, then you are into Crystal Ball and Fantasy Football. I think all those that spent 3+ years fuming about the Love pick, know what I am talking about.
 

DoURant

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Savage improved from yr 1 to yr 2 under Pettine. After Barry became DC he seemed to digress. I'm of belief he will sign with a team and have a Micah Hyde/ Casey Hayward type of breakout/turnaround season.... you never know, maybe even with Green Bay.
 

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Savage improved from yr 1 to yr 2 under Pettine. After Barry became DC he seemed to digress. I'm of belief he will sign with a team and have a Micah Hyde/ Casey Hayward type of breakout/turnaround season.... you never know, maybe even with Green Bay.
That's my strong feeling, as well.

He's a mixed bag. He's never really shown the onfield presence we all hoped we'd see, considering how much we traded to draft him, but there are some real positives. Lafleur has often spoken highly of his leadership and his support of his teammates, and the locker room loves him and supports him. He missed 7 games on IR last season, and instead of sitting at home watching MTV and playing video games, he made it his mission to stay part of the team. He was in the locker room and on the practice field constantly, talking to his teammates (especially the younger players), encouraging them, trying to share his suggestions and insights and making sure everyone knew he was there for them all the way.

He even spent last offseason in Green Bay because he thinks being a Packer is a fulltime job. I think I've read that he's done that most offseasons. Whatever his shortcomings, it's not like he lacks commitment or motivation and doesn't really care about making the extra effort. But still.... there were several defensive players who consistently just did not seem to know what was expected of them the last couple of years, and Savage is one of the first ones who come to mind.

This was the year you would have hoped he'd step up and make a case for a respectable contract, but that didn't happen. But at the same time, he's shown enough that I think he can still have a really nice career, but probably needs a fresh start with a new system.

Which he now can get here in Green Bay, and I'd kind of like that to happen if the price is rght. He's said he wants very badly to be back, and if he wants it badly enough, it might be worth a one-year "prove-it" deal at a reasonable but still respectful number. If he's motivated to say yes to that, I'd like to do it, but if he insists on a longer deal and/or too much money, I think we'd be better off spending that cash on a higher-end UFA who may cost more but has shown a more impressive body of work the last couple of years.

I think Green Bay will make a sincere effort to keep him on the team, but the two sides may have a hard time meeting in the middle. Green Bay is likely to want to pay him mostly on the basis of his last couple of years of demonstrated performance, but it's a good bet there will be at least one team out there willing to pay more for what they see as his potential. And then he's going to have a decision to make.

Out of all of our UFAs, this may be the most important call we have to make. If we give him a one-year prove-it deal, and he rises to the occasion, we may end up looking very smart. But I don't think we're going to stick our necks out too far - I think we're going to be approaching this rather cautiously, or at least we [ishould[/i].
 

DoURant

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That's my strong feeling, as well.

He's a mixed bag. He's never really shown the onfield presence we all hoped we'd see, considering how much we traded to draft him, but there are some real positives. Lafleur has often spoken highly of his leadership and his support of his teammates, and the locker room loves him and supports him. He missed 7 games on IR last season, and instead of sitting at home watching MTV and playing video games, he made it his mission to stay part of the team. He was in the locker room and on the practice field constantly, talking to his teammates (especially the younger players), encouraging them, trying to share his suggestions and insights and making sure everyone knew he was there for them all the way.

He even spent last offseason in Green Bay because he thinks being a Packer is a fulltime job. I think I've read that he's done that most offseasons. Whatever his shortcomings, it's not like he lacks commitment or motivation and doesn't really care about making the extra effort. But still.... there were several defensive players who consistently just did not seem to know what was expected of them the last couple of years, and Savage is one of the first ones who come to mind.

This was the year you would have hoped he'd step up and make a case for a respectable contract, but that didn't happen. But at the same time, he's shown enough that I think he can still have a really nice career, but probably needs a fresh start with a new system.

Which he now can get here in Green Bay, and I'd kind of like that to happen if the price is rght. He's said he wants very badly to be back, and if he wants it badly enough, it might be worth a one-year "prove-it" deal at a reasonable but still respectful number. If he's motivated to say yes to that, I'd like to do it, but if he insists on a longer deal and/or too much money, I think we'd be better off spending that cash on a higher-end UFA who may cost more but has shown a more impressive body of work the last couple of years.

I think Green Bay will make a sincere effort to keep him on the team, but the two sides may have a hard time meeting in the middle. Green Bay is likely to want to pay him mostly on the basis of his last couple of years of demonstrated performance, but it's a good bet there will be at least one team out there willing to pay more for what they see as his potential. And then he's going to have a decision to make.

Out of all of our UFAs, this may be the most important call we have to make. If we give him a one-year prove-it deal, and he rises to the occasion, we may end up looking very smart. But I don't think we're going to stick our necks out too far - I think we're going to be approaching this rather cautiously, or at least we [ishould[/i].
The saying is square peg in a round hole... I consider Savage more oval than square. He played Corner and Safety in college,, and felt he hasn't always been able to, or be put in a position to play to his strengths. The guy is fast, and if he could have things "simplified" so he could "play with his hair on fire" like Coach Hafley said he wants his guys to do at has press conference, I could see a more impactful, consistent player that I think the Packers saw when they traded up for him, coming out. He has the skills and talent, and I feel the real Darnell Savage will be released when that oval peg is round. I also feel the Packers want to see how much the league values Savage, and may throw an offer to him, as long as some team doesn't throw "stupid money" at him.
 

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While I agree with both of you about the possibility that Savage could turn out to be a solid player, in the right situation, I would be very cautious if I was a team signing him. I can't help but think about 2 recent Packers that fit that same scenario, Damarious Randall and Ha Ha Clinton Dix. Even Josh Jackson to some extent. We as Packer fans wanted to believe that it might not be the player, as much it was the situation, that influenced a high draft pick to not perform at a consistently high level.

The fact that the Packers exercised the 5th year option on Savage in 2022, leads me to believe that at that time, they felt they had a solid player. Conversely, his play in 2023 and the fact that he is most likely hitting Free Agency, tells me that the Packers have had second thoughts. Now maybe they just could work out a deal and Savage wanted to test the Free Agency waters, but any contract the Packers offer him should be structured around his 2023 play, with few guarantees and lots of incentives.

If you sat down with Gute and MLF over several beers, you might get their full and honest opinion as well as some history on Savage. However, until that day, all we can do is draw conclusions from their actions or inactions.
 

PikeBadger

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Savage improved from yr 1 to yr 2 under Pettine. After Barry became DC he seemed to digress. I'm of belief he will sign with a team and have a Micah Hyde/ Casey Hayward type of breakout/turnaround season.... you never know, maybe even with Green Bay.
I don't see it. He has no football instincts, can't tackle and can't change directions. He can however run fast straight forward for whatever that's worth.
 
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tynimiller

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I don't see it. He has no football instincts, can't tackle and can't change directions. He can however run fast straight forward for whatever that's worth.

You just described Devin White more so lol Savage has some football instincts but not much more than White.
 

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You just described Devin White more so lol Savage has some football instincts but not much more than White.
I used to really like Devin White, not so much anymore. Will be interesting to see where he lands in Free Agency, hopefully not in GB.
 

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So nearly every draft...Gute has done one thing arguably - draft a luxury type pick on the first two days or really early Day3 in the fourth. Now by what I mean luxury pick, just so you know where I'm coming from is a pick that roster construction and/or depth charts don't indicate a significant enough need to pick a prospect with need being even half of it, or even any of it.

Historically a few of these are:

Rashan Gary in 2019...we used the 12th overall pick on a guy that wasn't going to even see the field much likely. We had just signed two NFL proven edges in Preston Smith and Zadarius Smith...plus Kyler Fackrell had just had a double digit sack year in 2018.

Elgton Jenkins OC in 2019...we had Corey Linsley...our bookends were locked in...and Jenkins at Ole Miss had only played Tackle before switching to C for them for two years...a lesser degree luxury pick but one which could be argued for sure. He just happened to come in and say to Lane Taylor and Lucas Patrick...sorry but this guard spot is mine....don't forget we also brought Billy Turner in before this draft.

Jordan Love in 2020....massive luxury pick. You have a first ballot HOFer infront of him...likely not going to see the field for years....

AJ Dillon in 2020....We had Aaron Jones. We had Jamaal Williams...Tyler Ervin was signed in March before the draft (he actually played more snaps than Dillon in 2020 then) there was no need or even depth need at RB to go this early.

Josh Myers in 2021...We had Lucas Patrick - who even played like 80%+ of the center snaps in 2021 ready and set.

Zach Tom in 2022...I could make the case for Tom...but his is the biggest stretch...until the 2022 season Runyan and Newman both came in and out the gate looked the part as rookies...many expected one or both to take jumps. Our Tackle position was supposed to be solved with Bakh coming back and Yosh played solid in 2021. Not too mention we had in the third just drafted Rhyan.

Lukas Van Ness in 2023...We had Preston, Gary, Enagbare already in house....luxury to draft a high ceiling oober athletic edge.

Tucker Kraft in 2023...Yup I'll list it...but this could bump Tom as the biggest reach of the list. But we drafted a likely high snap guy in the second already, Deguara was still in house as was Davis...going to this position a second time so quickly again was a luxury type pick where the prospect and what your scouting staff saw outweighed the concept of need some if not a decent amount.


Put simply...when Gute and Co. draft what they feel is a high level prospect....it has played out arguably never bad, most of the time great...on the flipside a few times we've arguably done things based on need there are more misses (essentially all third rounders for a long time....but could argue Savage to a degree, Josh Jackson...)

The worst two to make the list is Dillon and Myers.....which all they did was give you multiple years of starts.....

But on this list you have our best edge player, our two best OL under contract that are healthy and a tight end tandem that is doing things NONE have done here and few in the league has.

So who might be the Packer types this draft that could just tempt Gute too much....for the sake of having fun I'll toss out some luxury picks on each day:

Day1
Jer'Zhan Newton or Byron Murphy iDL
...both of these two are interior down lineman wrecking machines that just ooze athletic profiles which are hard to describe until you watch the tape. While the 4-3 shift will rely less on bigger nose type plugs (Slaton may see fewer snaps this year than last) mobile and diverse bigguns along the interior will eat. Jer'Zhan IMO should be gone by the time we pick...and Murphy has all the signs of a high prospect but could be touch early to many. We have all pro Clark...and have Slaton, Wooden, Brooks and such but a few of those guys are likely to slide out to end roles more leaving a depth spot on the interior that such a pick this early would for sure be a luxury pick.

Darius Robinson Edge...I've touched on him enough and laid out the logic/argument.....

Jackson Powers-Johnson OC...drafting JPJ would honestly be ironic because Myers got drafted while Lucas Patrick was locked in as the starter....and JPJ would be getting drafted high while Myers is the locked in starter. Would Gute use not only a Day1 pick on a guy that sits a year and doesn't play his best position? OR given JPJ's background at guard just as recently as some in 2022 - would the plan be JPJ possibly RG till Myers proves worthy or not of a contract after 2024. Either way, a center is not a need we must fill right now....but JPJ is a freaking excellent center prospect.


Day2
Xavier Lagette WR
.....I hate even putting a wide receiver on this list, but because of our insane track record of second rounders and the topic of the thread being luxury picks Lagette and the next guy I feel are fitting to include. We have legit 5 guys I don't want to impeded their progression for one second....but if Lagette's name is called it would make sense. He's likely to explode on the RAS testing and despite him measuring shorter than his camp claimed - tape doesn't lie he is a jump ball mega giant. Offering a type of receiver that is like a mix of Doubs and Wicks stealing attributes of both but being neither.

Malachi Corley WR...you want a Jayden Reed type comp of a prospect I'd argue look no further than Corley from WKU. Smaller frame, well balanced lightning bolt in short yards make him a YAC beast. If you go four wide and have him and Reed both lined up in the slot GOOD LUCK defenders.

Blake Fisher RT....guys I'm telling you yes Guyton and Mims may be the tops at RT prospects...but it wouldn't shock me one bit if Fisher gets a starting nod this year he grades out as the best RT rookie in the NFL and may even long term be the best one in his class. The ONLY reason he played RT was a guy named Joe Alt...Fisher this year to me on film put together a more consistent year than even Alt did. Massive luxury if we pick because Tom has RT on lock...but imagine a world where you get a RT at or near the level of Tom, have the ability to slide Tom to RG....that's a massive line upgrade and a luxury to have done.

Gabriel Murphy ED/DE....one of the UCLA edge guys that unlike many of the others saw a lot of snaps with his hand in the dirt or inside the tackle. That attribute mixed with how incredibly successful he was at doing so would make him an awesome chess piece for Hefley as we switch bases....and quickly makes the Enagbare injury an after thought despite still having three clear guys ahead of him and maybe Brooks or Wooden too depending.

Fourth Round
Theo Johnson TE....We have Musgrave / Kraft / Simms...the need for an inline TE just simply isn't there - HBack/FB style absolutely...but targeting a TE that is an inline and split out option just is a luxury we don't need at all....so grabbing one early Day 3 would absolutely fit this bill. Theo is a guy that shined at Penn State in every alignment and comes in a better blocker than either Kraft or Musgrave did and arguably by a pretty decent margin. He quickly makes Ben Simms an afterthought.
Thanks Ty for another well-researched comment. As I was looking at past "luxury" picks it hit me - maybe Gluten is more likely to draft BPA instead of filling a need. And it made me realize that he deserves more credit than he gets for drafting.

Out of the upcoming draft candidates, I'd love to see him draft JPJ at C. Myers isn't worth a second contract, and the position is just too important.

As for WR, I won't be surprised he takes a guy like Lagette. I think there's only a 50/50 chance that Watson ever reaches WR #1. His injury history has put him behind a number of very good WRs. Strength can always be added but his issue is soft tissue injuries. A lot of guys break out in year three and no one needs more than Watson.
 

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Speaking of "early picks". Was looking to see what Amari Rodgers has been up to. He is now on the roster of a UFL Team, The Birmingham Stallions, as is Jace Sternberger.

Really interesting pay structure over there in the UFL. All rostered players make the same amount of money each week ($5500), regardless of their position or level of play. They all get the same travel and housing perks and about the only difference in pay are incentives like "player of the Week, player of the Month and MVP".

 

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Braelon Allen, day 2 pick from Gute. Much like Dillon, he'a big, fast running back without much wiggle, suspect vision ( i say suspect because it might just be that he's not agile enough laterally to get to holes that he sees), and a work-in-progress as a receiver. Obviously depends on combine numbers but Gute has already proven he values really big running backs so I'm going with Gute drafting Allen on day 2. Note, I would be disappointed with this pick as I don't think Allen has the upside to merit a day 2 pick.
 

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Braelon Allen, day 2 pick from Gute. Much like Dillon, he'a big, fast running back without much wiggle, suspect vision ( i say suspect because it might just be that he's not agile enough laterally to get to holes that he sees), and a work-in-progress as a receiver. Obviously depends on combine numbers but Gute has already proven he values really big running backs so I'm going with Gute drafting Allen on day 2. Note, I would be disappointed with this pick as I don't think Allen has the upside to merit a day 2 pick.
I agree with most of your post, but if Gute gets Allen in the 3rd round, I would be happy. I believe he goes before the Packers are picking at #88 in the 3rd.

They guy is only 20 years old, is an absolute physical specimen that continues to build on a position that he just started playing 2 1/2 years ago. Pair him up with Aaron Jones and you have a better 1-2 punch than what Dillon provided.
 
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tynimiller

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I agree with most of your post, but if Gute gets Allen in the 3rd round, I would be happy. I believe he goes before the Packers are picking at #88 in the 3rd.

They guy is only 20 years old, is an absolute physical specimen that continues to build on a position that he just started playing 2 1/2 years ago. Pair him up with Aaron Jones and you have a better 1-2 punch than what Dillon provided.

Honestly this RB class is so "eh" that truthfully while I have my preferences and guys I feel are better.....just get me one of the following (IN NO specific order, just as memory recalls):

Brooks
Benson
Wright
Lloyd
Estime
Allen
Irving
Davis
Jordan
Shipley


And if not them I'd still have hopes for:
Guerendo
Laube
Johnson
Ali
Gore Jr
Davis
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Honestly this RB class is so "eh" that truthfully while I have my preferences and guys I feel are better.....just get me one of the following (IN NO specific order, just as memory recalls):

Brooks
Benson
Wright
Lloyd
Estime
Allen
Irving
Davis
Jordan
Shipley


And if not them I'd still have hopes for:
Guerendo
Laube
Johnson
Ali
Gore Jr
Davis
With 11 picks in this draft, I would not be surprised at all to see Gute do what TT did in 2017 and draft 2 RB's prior to the 6th round. TT grabbed Williams in the 4th and Aaron Jones in the 5th. With Dillon seemingly done in GB, if they don't have any plans to sign a FA vet RB, 2 middle round rookies might work out for the present and the future.

I haven't done a whole lot in the draft dept. I always like to wait until after the combine and even the first few weeks of Free Agency. At that point it becomes a bit more obvious what the "position need picks" in the draft should be.
 

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