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Week 6 game 5 Ravens
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<blockquote data-quote="TJV" data-source="post: 517431" data-attributes="member: 4300"><p>weeds that was ‘all negative and crappy’ – shame on you! J/K as I too expect a close game but I thought I’d add some positives for the Packers. There was a good article yesterday on jsonline (<a href="http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/packers-blocking-schemes-evolve-b99118136z1-227471491.html" target="_blank">http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/packers-blocking-schemes-evolve-b99118136z1-227471491.html</a>) about the Packers’ evolving blocking scheme. I recommend it beyond its impact on Sunday's game. The ZBS is still the base, but according to the article, they went away from it more against the Lions than they have previously under McCarthy. That’s good news IMO for three reasons: 1) I hate the ZBS, 2) It makes their running game less predictable, and 3) IMO using plays in which the OL pull matches the skills of the Packers’ OL (OK, that’s only two good reasons but still…). But that alone won’t mean success Sunday because the Ravens are tough vs. the run (the Packers are actually 5th in rushing D while the Ravens are 6th but the Ravens allow 0.3 fewer yards per carry than the Packers’ D and unfortunately, it looks like Ngata will play.</p><p></p><p>One of the stats that is supposed to have a decent correlation to picking winners is QB rating differential. The good news for the Packers is while Rodgers’ QB rating is 105.5 (good for 5th in the league team standings), the Ravens’ defense is 22nd in opponent’s passer rating at 94.0. I bring this up to make the point that the Ravens’ D weak spot is vs. the pass so again IMO the Packers just have to be good enough running the ball to keep the Ravens’ D honest as they’re averaging almost 4 sacks per game. (BTW, passer rating differential when the Ravens have the ball doesn’t look as good for the Packers. While the Ravens are 28th in league passer rating by team at 70.1, the Packers D is allowing a pitiful passer rating of 107, good for 29th in the league.) No, the line is literally (factually, exactly) what it says. I’m guessing what you’re talking about is home teams start with a home field advantage of 3 points. Of course point spreads are about getting equal money on both sides of a game but If that is what you’re talking about FrankRizzo is correct as a spread of BAL -3 would reflect an “even” game with the Ravens getting the automatic 3 point advantage for being at home. Otherwise BAL -0 would more reflect 50-50 than giving the visiting team a favorite status of 3 points.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="TJV, post: 517431, member: 4300"] weeds that was ‘all negative and crappy’ – shame on you! J/K as I too expect a close game but I thought I’d add some positives for the Packers. There was a good article yesterday on jsonline ([url]http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/packers-blocking-schemes-evolve-b99118136z1-227471491.html[/url]) about the Packers’ evolving blocking scheme. I recommend it beyond its impact on Sunday's game. The ZBS is still the base, but according to the article, they went away from it more against the Lions than they have previously under McCarthy. That’s good news IMO for three reasons: 1) I hate the ZBS, 2) It makes their running game less predictable, and 3) IMO using plays in which the OL pull matches the skills of the Packers’ OL (OK, that’s only two good reasons but still…). But that alone won’t mean success Sunday because the Ravens are tough vs. the run (the Packers are actually 5th in rushing D while the Ravens are 6th but the Ravens allow 0.3 fewer yards per carry than the Packers’ D and unfortunately, it looks like Ngata will play. One of the stats that is supposed to have a decent correlation to picking winners is QB rating differential. The good news for the Packers is while Rodgers’ QB rating is 105.5 (good for 5th in the league team standings), the Ravens’ defense is 22nd in opponent’s passer rating at 94.0. I bring this up to make the point that the Ravens’ D weak spot is vs. the pass so again IMO the Packers just have to be good enough running the ball to keep the Ravens’ D honest as they’re averaging almost 4 sacks per game. (BTW, passer rating differential when the Ravens have the ball doesn’t look as good for the Packers. While the Ravens are 28th in league passer rating by team at 70.1, the Packers D is allowing a pitiful passer rating of 107, good for 29th in the league.) No, the line is literally (factually, exactly) what it says. I’m guessing what you’re talking about is home teams start with a home field advantage of 3 points. Of course point spreads are about getting equal money on both sides of a game but If that is what you’re talking about FrankRizzo is correct as a spread of BAL -3 would reflect an “even” game with the Ravens getting the automatic 3 point advantage for being at home. Otherwise BAL -0 would more reflect 50-50 than giving the visiting team a favorite status of 3 points. [/QUOTE]
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