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Week 4 Bring On The Eagles
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 845318"><p>The Packers need to markedly improve on 3rd. downs, currently ranking 30th. at 25%. There are no outliers in that number; it has been consistently poor in each of the three games:</p><p></p><p>CHI: 2-12</p><p>MIN: 5-15</p><p>DEN: 2-9</p><p></p><p>This is a pattern verging on a trend that needs to be snapped.</p><p></p><p>Philly's tough run defense and the Packers' sketchy run blocking to date does not bode well for down-and-distance. Rodgers inaccuracies and throw aways on run-substitution passes doesn't help matters.</p><p></p><p>For all the criticisms leveled at Philly's pass defense, their QB-rating-against is actually slightly better than the Vikings, and their 3rd. down defense is a quite respectable at 37.8%, 13th. ranked. It also doesn't help that Philly's D has given up the fewest first downs by penalty, only one.</p><p></p><p>Another Packer 3rd. down conversion rate like the ones to date does not bode well. LaFleur/Rodgers need to find 3rd. down solutions, otherwise another big play defensive performance (+2 turnovers/big special teams plays or a mess of drive killing sacks) will be required if they can't improve that conversion rate.</p><p></p><p>The Packers have been stellar in the red zone, scoring TDs on 6 of 7 trips, something of a paradox relative to the 3rd. down coversion rate. Philly has been not too shabby themselves converting 7 of 12 for an above averate 58%. On defense, the Packers have surrendered TDs on 2 of 6 red zone trips; Philly 4 of 8. The Packers get the red zone edge but this stat, among others, needs more data than 3 games can provide.</p><p></p><p>On the bright side, Philly's ball security has not been very good, 5 turnovers so far (2 picks, 3 lost fumbles) while not gathering many themselves on defense (3 picks, no fumble recoveries). Further, Wentz has been a sub-0.500 QB in starts over the 2018-2019 period, going 6-8 since combing back from that bad knee injury and then another season-ender. He hasn't had much winning mojo of late. The next Cousins? A big hat full of yards but not much cattle in the win column?</p><p></p><p>It's a little early to be doing this, but since it is a pivotal game and its Week 4 where trends start to solidify, I'll take a shot.</p><p></p><p>The Packers get the edge on turnovers and red zone. Philly's run D and the Packers dismal 3rd. down performance argues for another busy day for Scott. My sense is Philly covers the 4 point spread, the winner is too close to call, and the 48 over/under is also too close to call. In short, a close game without a fat point total on the scoreboard. I guess you could say my call is for a 23-23 tie in regulation with the game decided one way or the other by an ovetime FG. <img src="/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/wink.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=";)" title="Wink ;)" data-shortname=";)" /></p><p></p><p>I'm glad it is not the Rams. I did a like comparison, albeit on 3 weeks of data, and it is not very favorable.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 845318"] The Packers need to markedly improve on 3rd. downs, currently ranking 30th. at 25%. There are no outliers in that number; it has been consistently poor in each of the three games: CHI: 2-12 MIN: 5-15 DEN: 2-9 This is a pattern verging on a trend that needs to be snapped. Philly's tough run defense and the Packers' sketchy run blocking to date does not bode well for down-and-distance. Rodgers inaccuracies and throw aways on run-substitution passes doesn't help matters. For all the criticisms leveled at Philly's pass defense, their QB-rating-against is actually slightly better than the Vikings, and their 3rd. down defense is a quite respectable at 37.8%, 13th. ranked. It also doesn't help that Philly's D has given up the fewest first downs by penalty, only one. Another Packer 3rd. down conversion rate like the ones to date does not bode well. LaFleur/Rodgers need to find 3rd. down solutions, otherwise another big play defensive performance (+2 turnovers/big special teams plays or a mess of drive killing sacks) will be required if they can't improve that conversion rate. The Packers have been stellar in the red zone, scoring TDs on 6 of 7 trips, something of a paradox relative to the 3rd. down coversion rate. Philly has been not too shabby themselves converting 7 of 12 for an above averate 58%. On defense, the Packers have surrendered TDs on 2 of 6 red zone trips; Philly 4 of 8. The Packers get the red zone edge but this stat, among others, needs more data than 3 games can provide. On the bright side, Philly's ball security has not been very good, 5 turnovers so far (2 picks, 3 lost fumbles) while not gathering many themselves on defense (3 picks, no fumble recoveries). Further, Wentz has been a sub-0.500 QB in starts over the 2018-2019 period, going 6-8 since combing back from that bad knee injury and then another season-ender. He hasn't had much winning mojo of late. The next Cousins? A big hat full of yards but not much cattle in the win column? It's a little early to be doing this, but since it is a pivotal game and its Week 4 where trends start to solidify, I'll take a shot. The Packers get the edge on turnovers and red zone. Philly's run D and the Packers dismal 3rd. down performance argues for another busy day for Scott. My sense is Philly covers the 4 point spread, the winner is too close to call, and the 48 over/under is also too close to call. In short, a close game without a fat point total on the scoreboard. I guess you could say my call is for a 23-23 tie in regulation with the game decided one way or the other by an ovetime FG. ;) I'm glad it is not the Rams. I did a like comparison, albeit on 3 weeks of data, and it is not very favorable. [/QUOTE]
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