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Unsung hero, Russ Ball
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 824760"><p>Even with a mountain of star players on cheap rookie deals, like the 2013 Seahawks, it is very difficult for a front office to assess where a team will be with two full seasons and drafts in front of them. Visibility is very poor that far out into the future even if there wasn't an intervening CBA renegotiation.</p><p></p><p>Look at the things that can happen that can flip the script one way or the other:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Grand slam drafts vs. bust drafts</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Second year and third year jumps vs. lack thereof</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Career ending injuries</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Performance decline from age or injury or complacency</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Retirements</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">High free agency demands for draftees that pan out as they work of their rookie deals (see 2015 Seahawks, from dominance to playoff losses as big second contracts mounted).</li> </ul><p>Consider a few changes in perspective over the course of one or two Packer seasons using widely held opinions (which I don't necessarily agree with in some cases):</p><p></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Sitton goes from Pro Bowl guard to cut in a flash over a contract dispute spilling into the locker room</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Nelson went from 1250 yards / 15 TDs to a declining player abandoned.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Shields goes from #1 corner to gone in an instant.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Clinton-Dix goes from Pro Bowl to bum and sent packing mid-season.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Randall goes from starting corner to cancer.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Perry goes from big contract to an injured bum and cap casualty.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Lacy goes from fat and productive to fatter and injured.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Adams goes from a bum on the bubble to budding stardom.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Bahktiari goes from mid-round pick to Pro Bowl caliber LT on a cheap rookie deal</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Rodgers goes to IR and a season is lost.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Cobb and Matthews get big contracts then experience injuries and decline</li> </ul><p>Those are just the ones off the top of my head. I'm sure there are more examples of relevance in recent years. Who knows what surprises the next two seasons will hold? The front office view out that far is bound to be opaque. It should also be opaque to commentators.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 824760"] Even with a mountain of star players on cheap rookie deals, like the 2013 Seahawks, it is very difficult for a front office to assess where a team will be with two full seasons and drafts in front of them. Visibility is very poor that far out into the future even if there wasn't an intervening CBA renegotiation. Look at the things that can happen that can flip the script one way or the other: [LIST] [*]Grand slam drafts vs. bust drafts [*]Second year and third year jumps vs. lack thereof [*]Career ending injuries [*]Performance decline from age or injury or complacency [*]Retirements [*]High free agency demands for draftees that pan out as they work of their rookie deals (see 2015 Seahawks, from dominance to playoff losses as big second contracts mounted). [/LIST] Consider a few changes in perspective over the course of one or two Packer seasons using widely held opinions (which I don't necessarily agree with in some cases): [LIST] [*]Sitton goes from Pro Bowl guard to cut in a flash over a contract dispute spilling into the locker room [*]Nelson went from 1250 yards / 15 TDs to a declining player abandoned. [*]Shields goes from #1 corner to gone in an instant. [*]Clinton-Dix goes from Pro Bowl to bum and sent packing mid-season. [*]Randall goes from starting corner to cancer. [*]Perry goes from big contract to an injured bum and cap casualty. [*]Lacy goes from fat and productive to fatter and injured. [*]Adams goes from a bum on the bubble to budding stardom. [*]Bahktiari goes from mid-round pick to Pro Bowl caliber LT on a cheap rookie deal [*]Rodgers goes to IR and a season is lost. [*]Cobb and Matthews get big contracts then experience injuries and decline [/LIST] Those are just the ones off the top of my head. I'm sure there are more examples of relevance in recent years. Who knows what surprises the next two seasons will hold? The front office view out that far is bound to be opaque. It should also be opaque to commentators. [/QUOTE]
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