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Unsung hero, Russ Ball

Discussion in 'Green Bay Packers Fan Forum' started by longtimefan, Mar 12, 2019.

  1. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    This guy has to work magic for the contracts
     
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  2. gbgary

    gbgary Cheesehead

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    this is the guy that wanted to play gm and talked thompson into cutting hyde and hayword when he was getting weak minded. there's nothing special about ball. just another nfl bean counter.
     
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  3. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Yeah, no

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.packersnews.com/amp/981940001
     
  4. gbgary

    gbgary Cheesehead

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    that was dec 2017. more has come out since then.
     
  5. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    OK? Show me
     
  6. gbgary

    gbgary Cheesehead

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    can't. it wasn't something read but heard on Green Bay Radio early last year. take it or leave it. McCarthy didn't like him either.
     
  7. 906Fan

    906Fan Former Dancer

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    Source that says Russ Ball has done anything?
     
  8. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    I knew mm hated him.

    Regardless of history, today he deserves some praise
     
  9. PackAttack12

    PackAttack12 R-E-L-A-X

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    Well hello there Russ. Now we know what your Packer Forum handle is ;)
     
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  10. 906Fan

    906Fan Former Dancer

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    Lets not forget Milt Hendrickson, he must have probably been working around the clock for all of these FA moves!
     
  11. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    There is no magic with these contracts. It's a big math problem, especially when you consider that front offices are looking at least one year ahead, something fans and the media do not do. Big math problems get eyes glazing over for the non-professional.

    It boils down to "pay 'em now or pay 'em later", where "pay" = "cap hit", with some meaningful dose of "later" by way of signing bonus we must presume at this point. If there are other roster bonus cuts besides Perry teed up, then the cap allocation can be more front loaded.

    The auction bids for players are evaluated primarily in terms of (1) how much is guaranteed, (2) the term of the contract and (3) its total value. Teams and players then have vaying preferences as to whether the guarantees should be concentrated in the signing bonus or the base salary. There are a couple of reasons why players would want the guarantees to be in the signing bonus as much as possible: (1) it is cash money up front and (2) down the line the dead cap from that signing bonus is a kind of silent guarantee in that it makes a player hard to cut when there isn't much cap savings as we've debated with several Packer players this year.

    Teams in "win now" mode with limited cap room would like the big signing bonus route as well. Teams in building mode with a lot of cap room might prefer to put the guarantees in the up-front years of salary, smooth the cap curve for that player, and not have a big dead cap overhang a couple years down the line if he does not work out.

    If there is any magic at all it is in the multi-year perspective where the variables and unkowns are an order of magnitude greater.

    The real magic, or lack thereof, will be in the player selection, the proof in the putting. The key to winning is getting vet performance at or above cap cost and rookie contract performance well above their cheap cap cost. Not maximizing the draft is fatal, and that in a nutshell was Thompson's undoing.
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2019
  12. XPack

    XPack Cheesehead

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    Not sure. Was reading an article yesterday on how Packers contracts were structured badly to not leave any flexibility during later years. We only guarantee the bonus and split the rest...meaning we can't cut anyone without incurring bad cap hit. Will try to find that.
     
  13. JanisJubilee

    JanisJubilee Cheesehead

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    Russ Ball does a very good job of structuring contracts. He's not just an average bean counter...look at some of these contracts. They're all made for easy outs in 2021. Tons of cap room in 2021.
     
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  14. gbgary

    gbgary Cheesehead

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    as long as he stays in his lane he's ok. we're not sure how they're structured until they're official and public. oh...and it's "nfl bean counter." ;)
     
  15. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Not really, preliminarily.

    If Z. Smith's contract is in fact for 4 years with a $20 mil signing bonus, then there's $10 mil in signing bonus dead cap after 2020 which is about where we were with Perry this year. Based on other preliminary numbers the signing bonus dead caps for the others after 2020 are something like Amos at $5.5 mil, P. Smith at $8 mil, Turner at $4 mil, with cap backloaded in a pretty typical fashion for the respective contracts years and total values.

    We await verifiable details.
     
  16. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I don't think the Packers using signing bonuses to backload the cap hit in long term contracts is atypical at all. When all is said and done by opening day, the team dead caps across the league will likely show the Packers middle to bottom of the pack.

    The problem only comes into high relief when there are instances of players who fizzle out. For years the Packers incurred a minimum of dead cap. Then came Bennett. Now Perry. Also Graham, whether retained or not. We might say the same about Cobb and Matthews circa 2017.

    It is not the contract structures per se. It's these recent instances of players not performing up to expectations that creates the problem.
     
  17. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Ball has done a pretty good job of managing the cap. It might be true that he isn't great at evaluating talent though.

    Actually not guaranteeing a ton of money aside of the signing bonus is pretty smart and makes it easier to move on from an underperforming player. In addition the Packers don't hand out huge signing bonuses compared to other teams in the league.
     
  18. XPack

    XPack Cheesehead

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    Nope. The article said the cap increases down the line making it hard to cut. Makes us inflexible.
     
  19. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    While the cap hit increases the dead money, which would count against the cap in case of a player being released, decreases with each season.
     
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  20. sjb12681

    sjb12681 Cheesehead

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    I'm no cap expert but I've heard 2021 is our firm target for this current iteration of the Packers to end.

    Anyone able to confirm this? May give us that "here's our window" target.
     
  21. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I'm not sure what you mean by that but the Packers currently have $117 million in cap space allocated towards only 16 players for 2021, making it possibly tough to manage the cap successfully. You have to realize that a new CBA will have to be negotiated before that season though.
     
  22. hallzi43

    hallzi43 Cheesehead

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    2021 provides a number of options for outs/restructures and/or possibly allocating some of Rodgers 14M base into a signing bonus. That on top of a current projected 80M+ in cap to spend. On top of that the Packers should hit on at least 12-14 draft picks that stick to the team at least that long over that period and we will be in significantly better shape than we will be next season where there isn't entirely a lot of room to do much of anything and we have about half the money in cap to spend.
     
  23. sjb12681

    sjb12681 Cheesehead

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    Yeah, but half of that is 50mm for davante and AR. IF BALL OR Gute thinks that's the last hurrah, or plan to redo contracts between now and then, it's more like 60m for 14 players (and a roster overhaul).
     
  24. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Even with a mountain of star players on cheap rookie deals, like the 2013 Seahawks, it is very difficult for a front office to assess where a team will be with two full seasons and drafts in front of them. Visibility is very poor that far out into the future even if there wasn't an intervening CBA renegotiation.

    Look at the things that can happen that can flip the script one way or the other:
    • Grand slam drafts vs. bust drafts
    • Second year and third year jumps vs. lack thereof
    • Career ending injuries
    • Performance decline from age or injury or complacency
    • Retirements
    • High free agency demands for draftees that pan out as they work of their rookie deals (see 2015 Seahawks, from dominance to playoff losses as big second contracts mounted).
    Consider a few changes in perspective over the course of one or two Packer seasons using widely held opinions (which I don't necessarily agree with in some cases):

    • Sitton goes from Pro Bowl guard to cut in a flash over a contract dispute spilling into the locker room
    • Nelson went from 1250 yards / 15 TDs to a declining player abandoned.
    • Shields goes from #1 corner to gone in an instant.
    • Clinton-Dix goes from Pro Bowl to bum and sent packing mid-season.
    • Randall goes from starting corner to cancer.
    • Perry goes from big contract to an injured bum and cap casualty.
    • Lacy goes from fat and productive to fatter and injured.
    • Adams goes from a bum on the bubble to budding stardom.
    • Bahktiari goes from mid-round pick to Pro Bowl caliber LT on a cheap rookie deal
    • Rodgers goes to IR and a season is lost.
    • Cobb and Matthews get big contracts then experience injuries and decline
    Those are just the ones off the top of my head. I'm sure there are more examples of relevance in recent years. Who knows what surprises the next two seasons will hold? The front office view out that far is bound to be opaque. It should also be opaque to commentators.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2019
  25. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    If one goes by the cap space alone then the window is 2019.

    The cap cost of these 4 backloaded FA contracts more than doubles from 2019 to 2020, then more modestly in 2021.

    The top 51 players currently have a cap cost of $170 mil for 2019. If we assume Clark is 5th. year optioned for something like $10 mil., that would bring the cap cost of 32 players under contract for 2020 to that very same $170 mil, which leaves you about 20 players short of full deck.

    I'm not going to repeat again the FAs other than Clark not included in those 32 players other than to say there are presumptive 2019 starters that will need to be paid or replaced if they are not replaced this offseason to capture the savings.

    A $10 mil bump in the salary cap does not make up the difference, not by a long shot.

    2021? As noted above, anybody who claims to have visibility that far is making stuff up.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2019

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