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<blockquote data-quote="Magooch" data-source="post: 1081326" data-attributes="member: 17987"><p>I wish there was a good source to go back and check the in-game probabilities for situations like that (if there is, I'm not aware of it).</p><p></p><p>Anecdotally, the "go for it" percentage usually seems WAY higher than my gut would expect it to be. </p><p></p><p>Usually I don't have a huge problem with many of Campbell's calls (I thought some of the tricky stuff seemed a bit gimmicky/desperate, but that's another matter). It's hard not to grade in hindsight and of course it really depends on execution. </p><p></p><p>Detroit's first failed 4th down conversion came with 11 minutes left in the 3rd and they're trailing just 17-14 at that point. Ball is on our 47 so I'm fine with being aggressive there. It's kind of that no man's land where it's not really field goal range and a punt doesn't swing position that much unless you're totally confident you can pin them. But much like our call against the Eagles on 4th, it's not the going for it that I take issue with, it's the play call and execution of it. We had generally contained both Montgomery and Gibbs pretty well, and Goff hadn't had an incompletion since ~4 min left in 1Q. </p><p></p><p>The second, it's 31-21 with 11 minutes left. And the call is fine, but Goff puts it just a little behind and Williams drops it. My only thing here is that you're down two scores, so there's an argument that you just take the field goal and move on... but we turned around and punted less than 2 minutes after getting the ball back, so it's not like that was particularly consequential.</p><p></p><p>Like I said, I'd like to see what the punt/FG/go for it "win percentages" were but if I had to guess it probably wasn't going to be an obvious decision or egregious error one way or another. A better playcall on the first 4th and better throw/catch on the second 4th and no one is having anything to gripe about today.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Magooch, post: 1081326, member: 17987"] I wish there was a good source to go back and check the in-game probabilities for situations like that (if there is, I'm not aware of it). Anecdotally, the "go for it" percentage usually seems WAY higher than my gut would expect it to be. Usually I don't have a huge problem with many of Campbell's calls (I thought some of the tricky stuff seemed a bit gimmicky/desperate, but that's another matter). It's hard not to grade in hindsight and of course it really depends on execution. Detroit's first failed 4th down conversion came with 11 minutes left in the 3rd and they're trailing just 17-14 at that point. Ball is on our 47 so I'm fine with being aggressive there. It's kind of that no man's land where it's not really field goal range and a punt doesn't swing position that much unless you're totally confident you can pin them. But much like our call against the Eagles on 4th, it's not the going for it that I take issue with, it's the play call and execution of it. We had generally contained both Montgomery and Gibbs pretty well, and Goff hadn't had an incompletion since ~4 min left in 1Q. The second, it's 31-21 with 11 minutes left. And the call is fine, but Goff puts it just a little behind and Williams drops it. My only thing here is that you're down two scores, so there's an argument that you just take the field goal and move on... but we turned around and punted less than 2 minutes after getting the ball back, so it's not like that was particularly consequential. Like I said, I'd like to see what the punt/FG/go for it "win percentages" were but if I had to guess it probably wasn't going to be an obvious decision or egregious error one way or another. A better playcall on the first 4th and better throw/catch on the second 4th and no one is having anything to gripe about today. [/QUOTE]
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