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TT Drafting For Need: Good Thing?
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<blockquote data-quote="TJV" data-source="post: 444373" data-attributes="member: 4300"><p><span style="color: #000000"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">Good opening question. I am not worried about Thompson drafting for need in this draft. McGinn recently wrote an article I referred to in another thread in which he pointed out that Thompson’s drafts have emphasized offense so far so the top of this draft is bringing his drafts into overall balance. </span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: #000000"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">I agree trading up represents BVA unless way, way too much is given up to trade up. IMO that would mean the team sees the target as the BPA but gave up too much value. But that didn’t happen yesterday so I agree with AmishMafia, Perry is the only possible “violation” of BVA. Gil Brandt, who I have a lot of respect for listed Perry as the 21st best player in the draft (and Worthy as the 23rd). Of course that isn’t definitive but I don’t doubt Thompson and staff had the physical specimen that is Nick Perry rated above where he was selected in this draft. As we’ve talked about, BVA includes a team’s depth chart so for the Packers if a WR and OLB were closely rated it would matter that the OLB would be slotted as the starter (subject to change of course) and the WR would vie for the #3 or #4 WR spot. That’s an extreme example, of course.</span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">As to jaybadger82’s charge about Thompson paying too much to trade up to get Hayward, there’s a jsonline column that refutes that strongly titled, “Thompson wins swap with Belichick”. Luckily for the Packers Belichick was apparently desperate and Thompson took advantage of him. According to the trade value chart Silverstein uses in the article (available here </span><a href="http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #800080"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php</span></span></u></a><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'"> and elsewhere), pick #62 was worth 284 points; the Packers pick #90 was worth 140 pts and #163 was worth 29.8 pts, that’s a “gain” of 114.2 for the Packers. So from the Packers point of view, they didn’t give up as much value in the trade as the difference in picks represents. IOW, it didn’t matter if they got Hayward at #62, #72, or #84 – they didn’t pay that much to move up to get him. In fact according to the trade value chart, Thompson “paid for” pick #84 which is valued at 170 (140 + 29.8). Back to Brandt’s rankings, he lists Hayward at #82 so according to Brandt, Thompson again got value. And there was no way for Thompson to move up from pick #90 without giving up that pick unless he used a 2013 pick and that would have been mortgaging the future and reason for concern. BTW, I liked this quote from Mayock on Hayward: "He's one of the most instinctive corners in this draft. After Morris Claiborne, Hayward has the best ball skills of any of the corners in this draft. I love this pick for the Packers."</span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">Regarding the trade up for Worthy: Again according to the draft pick value chart, the Packers gave up 359 “value points” (310 + 49) to move up to pick #51 which is valued at 390 points. </span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">The Packers have exercised three picks in the first three rounds of the draft and IMO got incredible value. Gil Brandt doesn’t have “a dog in this fight” – by that I mean he attempts to be objective in his player rankings. Although still subjective, by his standard the Packers got incredible value with their first two picks and fair value for their third. The trade value chart is another subjective measure but again by that standard, Thompson barely “won” the first trade up and hit a grand slam on the second. </span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">The Packers have seven picks left. While they don’t have a pick in the 5th round, they have two fourth rounders so even after the trades they have more than a full compliment of picks. Of the seven Thompson has left, he has to exercise four so even if he can trade the remaining three for one, they’ll still pick 8 players. </span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: black"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">So far here’s my only problem with this draft: Knowing no NFL championship has ever been won in April, I’m struggling to contain my enthusiasm. <em>Giddy doesn’t look good on an old man!</em></span></span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="TJV, post: 444373, member: 4300"] [COLOR=#000000][FONT=Tahoma]Good opening question. I am not worried about Thompson drafting for need in this draft. McGinn recently wrote an article I referred to in another thread in which he pointed out that Thompson’s drafts have emphasized offense so far so the top of this draft is bringing his drafts into overall balance. [/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=#000000][FONT=Tahoma]I agree trading up represents BVA unless way, way too much is given up to trade up. IMO that would mean the team sees the target as the BPA but gave up too much value. But that didn’t happen yesterday so I agree with AmishMafia, Perry is the only possible “violation” of BVA. Gil Brandt, who I have a lot of respect for listed Perry as the 21st best player in the draft (and Worthy as the 23rd). Of course that isn’t definitive but I don’t doubt Thompson and staff had the physical specimen that is Nick Perry rated above where he was selected in this draft. As we’ve talked about, BVA includes a team’s depth chart so for the Packers if a WR and OLB were closely rated it would matter that the OLB would be slotted as the starter (subject to change of course) and the WR would vie for the #3 or #4 WR spot. That’s an extreme example, of course.[/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Tahoma]As to jaybadger82’s charge about Thompson paying too much to trade up to get Hayward, there’s a jsonline column that refutes that strongly titled, “Thompson wins swap with Belichick”. Luckily for the Packers Belichick was apparently desperate and Thompson took advantage of him. According to the trade value chart Silverstein uses in the article (available here [/FONT][URL='http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php'][U][COLOR=#800080][FONT=Tahoma]http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php[/FONT][/COLOR][/U][/URL][FONT=Tahoma] and elsewhere), pick #62 was worth 284 points; the Packers pick #90 was worth 140 pts and #163 was worth 29.8 pts, that’s a “gain” of 114.2 for the Packers. So from the Packers point of view, they didn’t give up as much value in the trade as the difference in picks represents. IOW, it didn’t matter if they got Hayward at #62, #72, or #84 – they didn’t pay that much to move up to get him. In fact according to the trade value chart, Thompson “paid for” pick #84 which is valued at 170 (140 + 29.8). Back to Brandt’s rankings, he lists Hayward at #82 so according to Brandt, Thompson again got value. And there was no way for Thompson to move up from pick #90 without giving up that pick unless he used a 2013 pick and that would have been mortgaging the future and reason for concern. BTW, I liked this quote from Mayock on Hayward: "He's one of the most instinctive corners in this draft. After Morris Claiborne, Hayward has the best ball skills of any of the corners in this draft. I love this pick for the Packers."[/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Tahoma]Regarding the trade up for Worthy: Again according to the draft pick value chart, the Packers gave up 359 “value points” (310 + 49) to move up to pick #51 which is valued at 390 points. [/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Tahoma]The Packers have exercised three picks in the first three rounds of the draft and IMO got incredible value. Gil Brandt doesn’t have “a dog in this fight” – by that I mean he attempts to be objective in his player rankings. Although still subjective, by his standard the Packers got incredible value with their first two picks and fair value for their third. The trade value chart is another subjective measure but again by that standard, Thompson barely “won” the first trade up and hit a grand slam on the second. [/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Tahoma]The Packers have seven picks left. While they don’t have a pick in the 5th round, they have two fourth rounders so even after the trades they have more than a full compliment of picks. Of the seven Thompson has left, he has to exercise four so even if he can trade the remaining three for one, they’ll still pick 8 players. [/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=black][FONT=Tahoma]So far here’s my only problem with this draft: Knowing no NFL championship has ever been won in April, I’m struggling to contain my enthusiasm. [I]Giddy doesn’t look good on an old man![/I][/FONT][/COLOR] [/QUOTE]
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