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Trading #14 pick
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<blockquote data-quote="OldSchool101" data-source="post: 763176" data-attributes="member: 10086"><p>Similar to my theory. but my prediction is if the Jets or Denver locks a starting QB in FA it improves the chances of a trade back because those top echelon QBs slip a little further to #14. It’s been said that the Bills could move into the top 5. I doubt it because that would show almost a desperation level and would be very very costly and far beyond their 1st rounders to the tune of mortgaging themselves in a year where QBs are held at a premium (this year if anything).</p><p></p><p>Because it’s another option. I understand your logic but you always keep your options open and work probability.</p><p>For instance let me give you a scenario where hypothetically pick #14 and he gets injured and winds up on the sideline all year (Dalvin Cook?) No ThankYou!! Plus there is zero guarantee your ideal top couple picks is even there at #14.</p><p> </p><p>Scenario 2: Denver, Browns, Jets etc.. get a QB in FA then only 2 QBs get picked top 13.</p><p>Then there is a run on Defenders (assuming you personally want a Defender?) so ever mock Defender you’ve been salivating on for 2 months is gone because out of 11 remains picks prior to us.. 7-8 are Defense. Now what? Grab a guy that should be picked 20-something??</p><p>Again NoThankYou!</p><p></p><p>We may pick #14 and that’s a strict reality. But if we go in stubborn with blinders on we could end up getting another Datone Jones and I’m not at all ok with that. The chances of pick #21 and #22 both getting seriously injured or both failing is far less likely. There may not be that much difference between a #14 and #21 especially in the scenario with 2 high grades QBs being picked between #14-#20 (you’re already guaranteed to make sure #14 is a QB) Thats a total of 5 (or less) picks different plus a high level QB still hanging around with teams like, Arizona, Chargers (who very well could be use a Successor) or any other team to trade up for a QB (Steelers? Etc..) ready to make a move That’s hardly a career changing player difference in overall quality in most books.</p><p></p><p>Finally, this year is special because we have the draft capital to do the trade back and consolidate by moving up to overall multiple high picks. We have plenty of late rounders to work this deal while still leaving adequate selections. It’s much better than cutting 3-4 later round draft picks to make roster IMO. I’d rather do some form of consolidation to move up in a round or 2. </p><p></p><p> It’ll all depend FA and if teams like the Bills jump right past us and we may never even get the chance, but we shouldn’t just throw in the towel on a trade back either.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="OldSchool101, post: 763176, member: 10086"] Similar to my theory. but my prediction is if the Jets or Denver locks a starting QB in FA it improves the chances of a trade back because those top echelon QBs slip a little further to #14. It’s been said that the Bills could move into the top 5. I doubt it because that would show almost a desperation level and would be very very costly and far beyond their 1st rounders to the tune of mortgaging themselves in a year where QBs are held at a premium (this year if anything). Because it’s another option. I understand your logic but you always keep your options open and work probability. For instance let me give you a scenario where hypothetically pick #14 and he gets injured and winds up on the sideline all year (Dalvin Cook?) No ThankYou!! Plus there is zero guarantee your ideal top couple picks is even there at #14. Scenario 2: Denver, Browns, Jets etc.. get a QB in FA then only 2 QBs get picked top 13. Then there is a run on Defenders (assuming you personally want a Defender?) so ever mock Defender you’ve been salivating on for 2 months is gone because out of 11 remains picks prior to us.. 7-8 are Defense. Now what? Grab a guy that should be picked 20-something?? Again NoThankYou! We may pick #14 and that’s a strict reality. But if we go in stubborn with blinders on we could end up getting another Datone Jones and I’m not at all ok with that. The chances of pick #21 and #22 both getting seriously injured or both failing is far less likely. There may not be that much difference between a #14 and #21 especially in the scenario with 2 high grades QBs being picked between #14-#20 (you’re already guaranteed to make sure #14 is a QB) Thats a total of 5 (or less) picks different plus a high level QB still hanging around with teams like, Arizona, Chargers (who very well could be use a Successor) or any other team to trade up for a QB (Steelers? Etc..) ready to make a move That’s hardly a career changing player difference in overall quality in most books. Finally, this year is special because we have the draft capital to do the trade back and consolidate by moving up to overall multiple high picks. We have plenty of late rounders to work this deal while still leaving adequate selections. It’s much better than cutting 3-4 later round draft picks to make roster IMO. I’d rather do some form of consolidation to move up in a round or 2. It’ll all depend FA and if teams like the Bills jump right past us and we may never even get the chance, but we shouldn’t just throw in the towel on a trade back either. [/QUOTE]
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