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Tracking playoff positioning
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<blockquote data-quote="Magooch" data-source="post: 983062" data-attributes="member: 17987"><p>So practically speaking Dallas is more or less guaranteed the first WC spot. I guess it's technically possible for Philly to lose the division to Dallas but either way the #2 team in NFCE will get the first WC spot.</p><p></p><p>Meaning basically the Commanders, Giants, Seahawks, Lions, and Packers are fighting for two remaining spots. And we are currently last in that group with the #10 seed in the NFC right now (and on that note I think even with a win tonight it doesn't impact our seed/position just yet).</p><p></p><p>We are 5-8 and can finish 9-8 at best. We play the Rams, Dolphins, Vikings, and Lions</p><p></p><p>The Commanders are 7-6-1 with a best possible finish of 10-6-1 with games remaining against the 49ers, Browns, and Cowboys.</p><p></p><p>And finally the Giants are 8-5-1 with the possibility of finishing 11-5-1. They play the Vikings, Colts, and Eagles. </p><p></p><p>As above it is basically down to these five teams for two spots meaning we will need to finish ahead of at least three of them. </p><p></p><p>So as best I can figure we would still need three out of the following four scenarios to happen, assuming we win out and finish 9-8.</p><p></p><p>1. Seattle loses at least one game to the Chiefs, Jets, or Rams, ensuring they can finish 9-8 at best.</p><p>[SPOILER="Tiebreaker scenario"]Should we both finish at 9-8 of course the tie-breaking procedures would come into effect. We did not play Seattle this year so obviously that first tiebreaker does not come into effect. Second tiebreaker for two clubs from separate divisions for a WC spot I believe is conference record. Currently Seattle is ahead with a 5-6 conference record to our 4-5, but we have three of our remaining games against NFC opponents (Rams, Vikings, Lions). Should we win out, we would finish with a 7-5 conference record. Seattle only has one remaining NFC opponent (Rams) so even if their loss came against an AFC team (Chiefs, Jets), they would at best finish with a 6-6 conference record, giving us the edge. [/SPOILER]</p><p>2. The Commanders lose two out of their remaining three games against the 49ers, Browns, and/or Cowboys, ensuring they can finish at best 8-8-1. </p><p>3. The Giants lose all of their remaining games against the Vikings, Colts, and Eagles, ensuring they can finish at best 8-8-1. </p><p>4. The Lions lose to either the Panthers or Bears; assuming we win head-to-head at the end of the season they would then finish 8-9. </p><p></p><p>Now I don't know that #4 *has* to happen. I haven't looked at every possible permutation but if it does end up coming down to SoV tiebreaker then I don't know how we would come out ahead... at the moment Detroit has a SoV of 0.495 (47 wins) to our SoV of 0.414 (29 wins) so it does not seem particularly likely. </p><p></p><p>But, all that being said, as long as 3/4 happen as far as I can tell we are guaranteed to make it. </p><p>And theoretically speaking if all four of these things were to happen we would actually finish as the #6 seed rather than #7.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Magooch, post: 983062, member: 17987"] So practically speaking Dallas is more or less guaranteed the first WC spot. I guess it's technically possible for Philly to lose the division to Dallas but either way the #2 team in NFCE will get the first WC spot. Meaning basically the Commanders, Giants, Seahawks, Lions, and Packers are fighting for two remaining spots. And we are currently last in that group with the #10 seed in the NFC right now (and on that note I think even with a win tonight it doesn't impact our seed/position just yet). We are 5-8 and can finish 9-8 at best. We play the Rams, Dolphins, Vikings, and Lions The Commanders are 7-6-1 with a best possible finish of 10-6-1 with games remaining against the 49ers, Browns, and Cowboys. And finally the Giants are 8-5-1 with the possibility of finishing 11-5-1. They play the Vikings, Colts, and Eagles. As above it is basically down to these five teams for two spots meaning we will need to finish ahead of at least three of them. So as best I can figure we would still need three out of the following four scenarios to happen, assuming we win out and finish 9-8. 1. Seattle loses at least one game to the Chiefs, Jets, or Rams, ensuring they can finish 9-8 at best. [SPOILER="Tiebreaker scenario"]Should we both finish at 9-8 of course the tie-breaking procedures would come into effect. We did not play Seattle this year so obviously that first tiebreaker does not come into effect. Second tiebreaker for two clubs from separate divisions for a WC spot I believe is conference record. Currently Seattle is ahead with a 5-6 conference record to our 4-5, but we have three of our remaining games against NFC opponents (Rams, Vikings, Lions). Should we win out, we would finish with a 7-5 conference record. Seattle only has one remaining NFC opponent (Rams) so even if their loss came against an AFC team (Chiefs, Jets), they would at best finish with a 6-6 conference record, giving us the edge. [/SPOILER] 2. The Commanders lose two out of their remaining three games against the 49ers, Browns, and/or Cowboys, ensuring they can finish at best 8-8-1. 3. The Giants lose all of their remaining games against the Vikings, Colts, and Eagles, ensuring they can finish at best 8-8-1. 4. The Lions lose to either the Panthers or Bears; assuming we win head-to-head at the end of the season they would then finish 8-9. Now I don't know that #4 *has* to happen. I haven't looked at every possible permutation but if it does end up coming down to SoV tiebreaker then I don't know how we would come out ahead... at the moment Detroit has a SoV of 0.495 (47 wins) to our SoV of 0.414 (29 wins) so it does not seem particularly likely. But, all that being said, as long as 3/4 happen as far as I can tell we are guaranteed to make it. And theoretically speaking if all four of these things were to happen we would actually finish as the #6 seed rather than #7. [/QUOTE]
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