Three Cuts - No Brainer / Coin Flip / Surprise

tynimiller

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Cuts happen every year and typically I place them into three categories:

No Brainers....these are typically your UDFAs...or guys that barely secured spots in prior years, but now with a bolstered roster and stronger position group there simply isn't a reason to keep them. Think Samori Toure now....this is also the McGough, Podlesny, Swinson, Stanley type guys spot too....some of you probably didn't even recognize those as names on our roster and that is the point.

Coin Flips....these are the guys that typically have many of us expected and some of us doubting will be cut heading into TC. Royce Newman is a prime example of this type...past starter, since relegated to backup and not even first up back up at a position he played once (RG). Truthfully he is a guy that isn't a true coin flip of 50/50, but is a guy that in the past has shown starter ability for a team and it is never a guarantee a team walks from them. Another current guy I'd put in this boat is Tyler Davis...while he has to like seeing no additional TE drafted, the play of Ben Sims last year and the fact Dillon may be switching to more an H Back type TE could spell doom for a guy that at one time was a pretty reliable #3 (albeit one you wanted upgraded). This is also where you often times find those late Day3 pick types. Kalen King is one for example this year....I can make a strong case for him to be here still when the dust settles, but a late Day3 type can never be too surprising should they be cut.

Surpirses...truthfully there is one guy each year that surprises a portion of the fan base if not the entire fan base. Isn't always a big surprise but can be. This is the guy many didn't see other than having an outside small chance of being cut, and some would staunchly fight against the claim he will be cut at this point in the season.


The no brainers are boring to discuss IMO. But I'll offer up a few guys I claim that will be cuts in the other two descriptions this year:

Coin Flips
Royce Newman...everyone knows I was highly encouraged by his rookie play and honestly felt we may be on to something with the Mississippi prospect. However, his play never progressed and some argue has regressed even. With an ascending final year hit of his rookie deal, his play not being even of a depth level you want - it seems this once starter will find himself on the chopping block for GB. His past and his athletic profile will likely have him picked up elsewhere however I'd bet and he may even excel elsewhere.

Tyler Davis...already outlined why....guy caught a bad break with the timing of his injury. I suspect between him and Sims we try hiding one on our PS, but not sure either will not be claimed elsewhere. We just don't have a need for Davis IMO and Sims has a higher ceiling.

Bo Melton....yup, you read that right folks. I know, I know...even I touted an attraction to this Rutgers prospect clear back to his draft year, BUT this WR room is loaded folks. Clearly ahead of him you have Watson, Doubs, Reed, Wicks and IMO Heath. At best he is your 5th...I have him at 6th....and anytime your in the 5th-7th conversations of a roster for WR the risk is truly there for a guy. Let's not forget that Heath showed out when called on as well, albeit not having the explosive game Melton had...and overlooking Dubose now healthy could prove naive when the dust settles. To some of you Melton deserves to be on the Surprise list...and I understand it, I just don't see it quite that surprising. For reference if you asked me to place a bet using my family's house as collateral as to who makes the 53 Donovan Jennings or Bo Melton - I'd honestly place my money on Jennings as I believe he is more likely.

Surprises
TJ Slaton
...I HATE this one, but then again that is part of why it would be a surprise - despite having some logic and defense behind it. Slaton has seen action ever since joining the Packers in 2021 as a fifth round pick...yet is rarely noticed by many. He is by far our 'biggest' body plugger in the interior and it will be interesting if he stays if he excels even more under Hafley or not in his contract year. A Slaton cut would signify a few things IMO - confidence that Wyatt for one is ready for a lot more reps and role, expectations of other DL to step up, they don't see what he gives as worth not saving the $3.1M in cap by keeping him.

Sean Rhyan...it's tough to come up with a second one, but I do feel a Rhyan cut would catch many off their heels. However, factoring in that he couldn't unseat Runyan last year who wasn't healthy, the youthful additions of quite good OL in Morgan, Monk, Glover and Jennings (plus adding Dillard cheap) make me honestly quite willing to walk from Rhyan who just has never shown me he is anything post PED Rhyan from college.


Who do you got as a realistic surprise perhaps? Or some coin flip thoughts?
 
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Snoops

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IMO Bo melton isn’t going anywhere I think he is better than heath they have the money and they are gonna let the best WRs figure it out and reward with contracts I think a likelier scenario after this year either doubs or Watson won’t be resigned
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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IMO Bo melton isn’t going anywhere I think he is better than heath they have the money and they are gonna let the best WRs figure it out and reward with contracts I think a likelier scenario after this year either doubs or Watson won’t be resigned

Money isn't an issue with Melton or Heath - both are dreadfully cheap right now. I could see them both making the 53 as much as I could see one or neither making it. The WR room to have 8 deep guys with serious potential is freaking awesome....two of the Heath / Melton / Toure / DuBose are likely going to be there when dust settles on roster.
 

gopkrs

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I'm hoping both Melton and Heath make it. They both made big plays last year. Especially Melton. He just seemed to get open and caught everything near him.
 
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I agree with most comments in here. I’ll just say that I think Kalen King gets at minimum 1 season to prove himself. The only way I see him not making at minimum the PS is if he injures himself OR we make a surprise veteran addition at CB.

King will be competing with Rochelle for that 6th spot imo behind Ballentine and Valentine. If he misses he’ll be on PS until the first injury at CB (I have him as a CB6-CB7). That said, I personally like Rochelles’ chances because he’ll have almost a full season in by the time we start regular season (acquired Oct 23’) Plus he’s just a physical phenomenon. 43” vertical who runs a 4.41 40-time at just under 6’ X 195lb runs a 6.84 3-cone and long jumped 133”. He’s a specimen. King will have to show up early and often to beat out a superior-gifted, athletic Rochelle. King is in that draft #250’s overall area where the loss of investment is lower if he gets poached.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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I agree with most comments in here. I’ll just say that I think Kalen King gets at minimum 1 season to prove himself. The only way I see him not making at minimum the PS is if he injures himself OR we make a surprise veteran addition at CB.

King will be competing with Rochelle for that 6th spot imo behind Ballentine and Valentine. If he misses he’ll be on PS until the first injury at CB (I have him as a CB6-CB7). That said, I personally like Rochelles’ chances because he’ll have almost a full season in by the time we start regular season (acquired Oct 23’) Plus he’s just a physical phenomenon. 43” vertical who runs a 4.41 40-time at just under 6’ X 195lb runs a 6.84 3-cone and long jumped 133”. He’s a specimen. King will have to show up early and often to beat out a superior-gifted, athletic Rochelle. King is in that draft #250’s overall area where the loss of investment is lower if he gets poached.

You pretty much provided the exact reasoning why King would be in the Coin Flip spot - spot on!
 

El Guapo

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What I'm hoping for is Gute to swing a training camp trade with a team that is deep at safety or linebacker. We could trade for depth instead of a surprise cut.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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What I'm hoping for is Gute to swing a training camp trade with a team that is deep at safety or linebacker. We could trade for depth instead of a surprise cut.

To be fair the surprise cut guys are typically of the variety you'd try to do a trade like that on, we've seen Gute do some Day 3 (6th or 7th) type return trades for sure in the years past. Newman with his starting past could be attractive to a team via a low risk 7th rounder for him with a chance new scene he pans out. I could also see Melton or Heath getting you something similar if a team really needs a WR. Or instead of a pick it could be a potential cut guy here due to roster in exchange for their guy that is likely a cut due to their roster structure.
 
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I’d have Ballentine in that Coin flip.

It’s not that he’s a bad player as much as he’s not a great player. He’s bounced across 4 teams in 5 NFL seasons and it wouldn’t take but 1 CB (Kalen King etc.. ) to look “Valentinish” in his Rookie debut to push Ballentine 1-2 spots down the depth chart. Ballentine was in that CB4-CB5 spot last season but is now in that CB5-CB6 spot with Erik Stokes back in the lineup.
I could see a world where Ballentine is gone in September and Rochelle and King even out the CB5-CB6 spots. Ballentine carries a dead hit of $500K if he’s let go, but he’s also $2.06mil against the Cap in 2024 or a $1.56mil Cap savings if someone beats him out. King’s average is right at $1.025 yearly (Spotrac) so and about $400K less than Ballentine in 2024. Then a $1.05mil savings annually after that.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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I’d have Ballentine in that Coin flip.

It’s not that he’s a bad player as much as he’s not a great player. He’s bounced across 4 teams in 5 NFL seasons and it wouldn’t take but 1 CB (Kalen King etc.. ) to look “Valentinish” in his Rookie debut to push Ballentine 1-2 spots down the depth chart. Ballentine was in that CB4-CB5 spot last season but is now in that CB5-CB6 spot with Erik Stokes back in the lineup.
I could see a world where Ballentine is gone in September and Rochelle and King even out the CB5-CB6 spots. Ballentine carries a dead hit of $500K if he’s let go, but he’s also $2.06mil against the Cap in 2024 or a $1.56mil Cap savings if someone beats him out. King’s average is right at $1.025 yearly (Spotrac) so and about $400K less than Ballentine annually. So if it’s even, keeping King over Ballentine pays for most of a departed players void $ this year as a bonus gift

Ballentine for sure would be there too. 100%
 

El Guapo

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Coin flip for me:
Emmanuel Wilson - depth at RB and need at other positions

Surprise:
Eric Stokes - Early reports are that he is healthy this may be the end for him if he has another setback.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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Coin flip for me:
Emmanuel Wilson - depth at RB and need at other positions

Surprise:
Eric Stokes - Early reports are that he is healthy this may be the end for him if he has another setback.

Stokes was one I almost put down as a surprise cut, I do however think we'd find a trade partner willing to deal a 6th or even 5th for Stokes and 7th back given his pedigree as a prospect and how good he has been before IF we were going to cut.
 

Firethorn1001

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Newman is probably somewhere in the 'no brainer to coin flip' realm given his rookie escalators put his salary hit at $3M+. He seems to be going in reverse and could see them easily moving on for cap savings.
 
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I was going to initially put Josh Myers in as a surprise cut. However the more I pondered that the more I dismissed my initial thoughts there.

People Do What Works

Now that is such a rhetorical sounding statement, but it’s one I borrowed from Dr Phil, so blame him! It can mean doing what has worked before to get the desired results. That could mean anything from robbing a bank (successfully) to winning a contest or a race etc.. People intuitively go back to what worked in the past good or bad it could be an addiction or promotion for that matter. What we did in 2023 worked and it would be hard to argue otherwise.

Here it applies to 2023 Myers. He did have some tough moments. Yet things like not snapping the ball when #10 was desperately communicating such to create a D penalty
or missing an assignment on a twist became teachable moments that he corrected.

The end result is we barely heard Myers name down the stretch. That stretch consisted of multiple 100 yard Rushers and an Elite level passing attack. Josh did start rough and almost became the scapegoat with some fans for broken plays earlier in the season and rightfully so. What I learned across several games watching him closely was that Myers was still part of an OL lineup that was possibly a missed or made FG from another NFC Championship game. I quickly lost focus on him because our O was performing at such a high level he made me forget to watch him because I had so much fun just watching our complete success and he became an afterthought.

He’s easily an average Center, but he’s not a Center easily replaced either.
 
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Thirteen Below

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He’s easily an average Center, but he’s not a Center easily replaced either.
I realized the same thing by the end of the season, and part of the reason it took me so long was that (like you) I was hardly noticing him by the last month or two. And you know then old saying about offensive lineman - like drummers and goalies, the less often you notice them, the better they are.

We can get better at center, and with some of the guys we drafted a month ago, it's probable that our best center going forward is someone other than Myers. But he worked damned hard the last stretch of the season to make himself better, and he's probably a starter on 1/3 of the teams in the league. If he gets beaten out, he'd be an asset in the trade market. I don't see him staying as a backup, because he can only back up that one position, and other linemen on the roster are more multi-functional.
 

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