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Message: <blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 876464">[QUOTE="Sunshinepacker, post: 876449, member: 9033"DVOA tries to account for strength of opponent; PPG or yards per play don't do that.</blockquote>Strength of schedule is a notriously poor way of projecting or measuring things.  I would account for that as it being circular.  So, you compare to an opponent making a judgement about them.  But what about their competition?  And their competition's competition?  If you keep going and end up to a large degree right back where you started.Do we know how far into the regress DVOA attempts to go?  No, we do not.  If it's one level, that's pretty weak.  You can't say, for example, that running the ball for 4.7 yards per carry against a 4.2 yards per carry defense makes for an above average DVOA if that 4.2 defense had been playing against 4.0 running backs.  And what about those 4.0 running backs?  Were they playing against 3.8 or 4.5 defenses?  And then who were those defenses playing against?  Around the carousel you go.The illusion of depth and complexity presented in an opaque black box wrapper is as likely to be the primrose path as it is the answer to anything.[/QUOTE]

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