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The Unsung Linchpin of 2023
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<blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 998756" data-attributes="member: 12283"><p>With the draft over, I've been thinking about the coming season and what the Packers need to accomplish. </p><p></p><p>Priority #1 must be to support Jordan Love's development and get a good assessment of him in order to determine whether or not he's the future. </p><p></p><p>The team obviously demonstrated the priority of that goal by loading up on pass catchers in the draft, some of whom will hopefully be ready to help Love right away.</p><p></p><p>But another major aspect of support for Love is the running game.</p><p></p><p>In 2020, the year which I believe to be the clearest picture of how LaFleur wants his offense to operate, the Packers ran 990 offensive plays and had 443 rush attempts. That is a 45/55 run/pass split. I believe that in 2023, that ratio will end up being even a little bit higher. If we estimate a split of 47/53 in 2023, that means that the Packers will need to come up with ~470 carries. And if they want Love to be in a position to succeed/grow (and not forced into an abundance of 3rd and long situations), those carries need to be effective and not just perfunctory. </p><p></p><p>If we project that carry distribution, let's say Love takes care of 70 of those attempts on his own and another ~15 or so are end-around, WR, gimmick, etc. That still leaves 385 carries for running backs. </p><p></p><p>First up is obviously Aaron Jones. Jones, in his career, has missed: 4, 4, 0, 2, 2, and 0 games respectively. Let's project that he plays 14 full games and averages 13 carries per game played. That would be 182 carries. He's exceeded that total in three of the last four seasons, but players don't get more durable as they age. </p><p></p><p>That leaves 203 carries left to be accounted for, and the lion's share of them will go to the player whom I propose is quietly one of the most critically important guys on the roster this season:</p><p></p><p><strong>A.J. Dillon</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>[ATTACH=full]19197[/ATTACH]</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>In Dillon's three season's as a Packer, his YPC has gone from 5.3 to 4.3 to 4.1. Caveat-- he only carried the ball 46 times during that first season. </p><p></p><p>Part of the drop in YPC can be explained by his heavier usage inside the red zone, which obviously includes goal line and short yardage. Between the 20's, he's been around 4.5 YPC in both 2021 and 2022. However, that is still a pretty significant drop off for the offense, as Aaron Jones is closer to 6.0 YPC until he enters the red zone. </p><p></p><p>If Dillon is highly inefficient in 2023, the offense is going to feel it in a major way because they essentially have no choice but to feed the ball. However, if he's highly motivated in this contract year and the blocking is there, he also has the potential to make a huge positive influence on both Love and the offense in general. For that reason, I consider him to quietly be one of the most important players on the entire roster this season.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Dantés, post: 998756, member: 12283"] With the draft over, I've been thinking about the coming season and what the Packers need to accomplish. Priority #1 must be to support Jordan Love's development and get a good assessment of him in order to determine whether or not he's the future. The team obviously demonstrated the priority of that goal by loading up on pass catchers in the draft, some of whom will hopefully be ready to help Love right away. But another major aspect of support for Love is the running game. In 2020, the year which I believe to be the clearest picture of how LaFleur wants his offense to operate, the Packers ran 990 offensive plays and had 443 rush attempts. That is a 45/55 run/pass split. I believe that in 2023, that ratio will end up being even a little bit higher. If we estimate a split of 47/53 in 2023, that means that the Packers will need to come up with ~470 carries. And if they want Love to be in a position to succeed/grow (and not forced into an abundance of 3rd and long situations), those carries need to be effective and not just perfunctory. If we project that carry distribution, let's say Love takes care of 70 of those attempts on his own and another ~15 or so are end-around, WR, gimmick, etc. That still leaves 385 carries for running backs. First up is obviously Aaron Jones. Jones, in his career, has missed: 4, 4, 0, 2, 2, and 0 games respectively. Let's project that he plays 14 full games and averages 13 carries per game played. That would be 182 carries. He's exceeded that total in three of the last four seasons, but players don't get more durable as they age. That leaves 203 carries left to be accounted for, and the lion's share of them will go to the player whom I propose is quietly one of the most critically important guys on the roster this season: [B]A.J. Dillon [ATTACH=full]19197[/ATTACH] [/B] In Dillon's three season's as a Packer, his YPC has gone from 5.3 to 4.3 to 4.1. Caveat-- he only carried the ball 46 times during that first season. Part of the drop in YPC can be explained by his heavier usage inside the red zone, which obviously includes goal line and short yardage. Between the 20's, he's been around 4.5 YPC in both 2021 and 2022. However, that is still a pretty significant drop off for the offense, as Aaron Jones is closer to 6.0 YPC until he enters the red zone. If Dillon is highly inefficient in 2023, the offense is going to feel it in a major way because they essentially have no choice but to feed the ball. However, if he's highly motivated in this contract year and the blocking is there, he also has the potential to make a huge positive influence on both Love and the offense in general. For that reason, I consider him to quietly be one of the most important players on the entire roster this season. [/QUOTE]
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