Forums
New posts
Search forums
What's new
New posts
New media
New media comments
New resources
Latest activity
Media
New media
New comments
Search media
Resources
Latest reviews
Search resources
Members
Current visitors
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
New posts
Search forums
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Forums
Open Football Discussion
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
The Unsung Linchpin of 2023
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 998756" data-attributes="member: 12283"><p>With the draft over, I've been thinking about the coming season and what the Packers need to accomplish. </p><p></p><p>Priority #1 must be to support Jordan Love's development and get a good assessment of him in order to determine whether or not he's the future. </p><p></p><p>The team obviously demonstrated the priority of that goal by loading up on pass catchers in the draft, some of whom will hopefully be ready to help Love right away.</p><p></p><p>But another major aspect of support for Love is the running game.</p><p></p><p>In 2020, the year which I believe to be the clearest picture of how LaFleur wants his offense to operate, the Packers ran 990 offensive plays and had 443 rush attempts. That is a 45/55 run/pass split. I believe that in 2023, that ratio will end up being even a little bit higher. If we estimate a split of 47/53 in 2023, that means that the Packers will need to come up with ~470 carries. And if they want Love to be in a position to succeed/grow (and not forced into an abundance of 3rd and long situations), those carries need to be effective and not just perfunctory. </p><p></p><p>If we project that carry distribution, let's say Love takes care of 70 of those attempts on his own and another ~15 or so are end-around, WR, gimmick, etc. That still leaves 385 carries for running backs. </p><p></p><p>First up is obviously Aaron Jones. Jones, in his career, has missed: 4, 4, 0, 2, 2, and 0 games respectively. Let's project that he plays 14 full games and averages 13 carries per game played. That would be 182 carries. He's exceeded that total in three of the last four seasons, but players don't get more durable as they age. </p><p></p><p>That leaves 203 carries left to be accounted for, and the lion's share of them will go to the player whom I propose is quietly one of the most critically important guys on the roster this season:</p><p></p><p><strong>A.J. Dillon</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>[ATTACH=full]19197[/ATTACH]</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>In Dillon's three season's as a Packer, his YPC has gone from 5.3 to 4.3 to 4.1. Caveat-- he only carried the ball 46 times during that first season. </p><p></p><p>Part of the drop in YPC can be explained by his heavier usage inside the red zone, which obviously includes goal line and short yardage. Between the 20's, he's been around 4.5 YPC in both 2021 and 2022. However, that is still a pretty significant drop off for the offense, as Aaron Jones is closer to 6.0 YPC until he enters the red zone. </p><p></p><p>If Dillon is highly inefficient in 2023, the offense is going to feel it in a major way because they essentially have no choice but to feed the ball. However, if he's highly motivated in this contract year and the blocking is there, he also has the potential to make a huge positive influence on both Love and the offense in general. For that reason, I consider him to quietly be one of the most important players on the entire roster this season.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Dantés, post: 998756, member: 12283"] With the draft over, I've been thinking about the coming season and what the Packers need to accomplish. Priority #1 must be to support Jordan Love's development and get a good assessment of him in order to determine whether or not he's the future. The team obviously demonstrated the priority of that goal by loading up on pass catchers in the draft, some of whom will hopefully be ready to help Love right away. But another major aspect of support for Love is the running game. In 2020, the year which I believe to be the clearest picture of how LaFleur wants his offense to operate, the Packers ran 990 offensive plays and had 443 rush attempts. That is a 45/55 run/pass split. I believe that in 2023, that ratio will end up being even a little bit higher. If we estimate a split of 47/53 in 2023, that means that the Packers will need to come up with ~470 carries. And if they want Love to be in a position to succeed/grow (and not forced into an abundance of 3rd and long situations), those carries need to be effective and not just perfunctory. If we project that carry distribution, let's say Love takes care of 70 of those attempts on his own and another ~15 or so are end-around, WR, gimmick, etc. That still leaves 385 carries for running backs. First up is obviously Aaron Jones. Jones, in his career, has missed: 4, 4, 0, 2, 2, and 0 games respectively. Let's project that he plays 14 full games and averages 13 carries per game played. That would be 182 carries. He's exceeded that total in three of the last four seasons, but players don't get more durable as they age. That leaves 203 carries left to be accounted for, and the lion's share of them will go to the player whom I propose is quietly one of the most critically important guys on the roster this season: [B]A.J. Dillon [ATTACH=full]19197[/ATTACH] [/B] In Dillon's three season's as a Packer, his YPC has gone from 5.3 to 4.3 to 4.1. Caveat-- he only carried the ball 46 times during that first season. Part of the drop in YPC can be explained by his heavier usage inside the red zone, which obviously includes goal line and short yardage. Between the 20's, he's been around 4.5 YPC in both 2021 and 2022. However, that is still a pretty significant drop off for the offense, as Aaron Jones is closer to 6.0 YPC until he enters the red zone. If Dillon is highly inefficient in 2023, the offense is going to feel it in a major way because they essentially have no choice but to feed the ball. However, if he's highly motivated in this contract year and the blocking is there, he also has the potential to make a huge positive influence on both Love and the offense in general. For that reason, I consider him to quietly be one of the most important players on the entire roster this season. [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Verification
Post reply
Members online
shockerx
AKCheese
Fat Dogs
Schultz
DoURant
Team Ronny
Green_Bay_Packers
lancer84
txj
Latest posts
S
2024 draft discussion thread
Latest: Schultz
3 minutes ago
Draft Talk
What's life really like in Green Bay?
Latest: Team Ronny
4 minutes ago
The Green Bay Life
2024 3rd Rd #91 Ty’Ron Hopper LB
Latest: GreenNGold_81
36 minutes ago
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
2024 3rd round #88 MarShawn Lloyd RB
Latest: PikeBadger
54 minutes ago
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
2024 2nd Rd pick #58 Javon Bullard S
Latest: longtimefan
Today at 9:58 AM
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
Forums
Open Football Discussion
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
The Unsung Linchpin of 2023
This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
Accept
Learn more…
Top