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The Case for Paying Aaron Jones
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 878736"><p>The problem can be the kind of contract that the player expects. Jones has played 3 seasons. Where are you going to be in year 5 or 6 with a big dead cap hangover if there is a healthy signing bonus?</p><p></p><p>Some folks want to point to the Ekeler contract as a comparable. Is that realistic? It sure ain't "just pay the man" money. But for the sake of argument, lets say Jones agrees to 4 years, $24.5 mil, including a rewrite of his upcoming 4th. season, as with Ekeler. There's a big problem. Here's Ekeler's contract:</p><p></p><p><a href="https://overthecap.com/player/austin-ekeler/5865/" target="_blank">https://overthecap.com/player/austin-ekeler/5865/</a></p><p></p><p>Note the dead cap is front loaded because this deal includes only $6 mil in signing bonus and the rest of guarantees are in salary in the first two years. That $11.75 mil first year cap number is fine for an upcoming season for a young player in his stride. That's if you can afford it. Unfortunately, the Packers cannot.</p><p></p><p>With Jones currently counting $2.2 mil in cap, you'd have to come up with nearly $10 mil in cap space to sign him to the same contract, cap the Packers do not have by the time the rookies are signed and players 52, 53 and the PS put on the books with next to no injury reserve if any at all. You'd have to cut Linsley, something the Packers seem reluctant to do. Hey, I thought that Linsley savings was going to Clark's extension, right? <img src="/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/rolleyes.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":rolleyes:" title="Roll Eyes :rolleyes:" data-shortname=":rolleyes:" /></p><p></p><p>Lets go on. Ekeler's contract starts to look team-friendly in 2021. If Ekelar goes the way of many running backs, showing decline by the time his 5th. season rolls around, the Chargers can get out of this deal with only negative $3 mil cap savings which is pretty manageable. By the third year of this contact, Ekeler's 6th., it's an easy out with $3.5 mil cap savings. In other words, going into Ekeler's year 6 he is year-to-year.</p><p></p><p>If there is any player who you'd want to front load the cap hit in the contract it is a running back. Good for San Diego. The Packers do not have that luxury. They would have to backload the cap with a big signing bonus which is pretty risky by the time you get to those year 5 and 6 seasons. </p><p></p><p>So, if Jones would agree to $6 mil per year with $14-$15 mil guaranteed like Ekelar, a questionable proposition to start with, there's a way to do that while making him a "franchise" player in the other sense of the word. Lets say he plays 2020 under the current contract and if he's still rolling along as we've become accustomed you can franchise tag him for 2021. That's assuming you've not used the tag already on Clark.</p><p></p><p>The running back franchise tag for 2020 is $12.5 mil, figure close to that next year. So he'd get $14 - $15 mil cash money in the next two years, the same as Ekeler, then year-to-year after that, just like Ekelar. Of course Jones would not have Ekeler's security until he gets through 2020 unscathed and gets to that guaranteed tag tender. But he would not have a choice, would he? Of course tags **** off players, so you'd have to calibrate whether that would affect performance. Risks are everywhere, choose your poison.</p><p></p><p>Unfortunatly, that's not the end of the story. The Packers have a list of potentially high value FAs for 2021 without a lot of cap space and no obvious cuts to gain more. Absorbing a fresh $12.5 mil cap hit in 2021 would be tough pill to swallow.</p><p></p><p>There isn't a clear path here, even without "pay the man" money, which Ekeler's contract is not.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 878736"] The problem can be the kind of contract that the player expects. Jones has played 3 seasons. Where are you going to be in year 5 or 6 with a big dead cap hangover if there is a healthy signing bonus? Some folks want to point to the Ekeler contract as a comparable. Is that realistic? It sure ain't "just pay the man" money. But for the sake of argument, lets say Jones agrees to 4 years, $24.5 mil, including a rewrite of his upcoming 4th. season, as with Ekeler. There's a big problem. Here's Ekeler's contract: [URL]https://overthecap.com/player/austin-ekeler/5865/[/URL] Note the dead cap is front loaded because this deal includes only $6 mil in signing bonus and the rest of guarantees are in salary in the first two years. That $11.75 mil first year cap number is fine for an upcoming season for a young player in his stride. That's if you can afford it. Unfortunately, the Packers cannot. With Jones currently counting $2.2 mil in cap, you'd have to come up with nearly $10 mil in cap space to sign him to the same contract, cap the Packers do not have by the time the rookies are signed and players 52, 53 and the PS put on the books with next to no injury reserve if any at all. You'd have to cut Linsley, something the Packers seem reluctant to do. Hey, I thought that Linsley savings was going to Clark's extension, right? :rolleyes: Lets go on. Ekeler's contract starts to look team-friendly in 2021. If Ekelar goes the way of many running backs, showing decline by the time his 5th. season rolls around, the Chargers can get out of this deal with only negative $3 mil cap savings which is pretty manageable. By the third year of this contact, Ekeler's 6th., it's an easy out with $3.5 mil cap savings. In other words, going into Ekeler's year 6 he is year-to-year. If there is any player who you'd want to front load the cap hit in the contract it is a running back. Good for San Diego. The Packers do not have that luxury. They would have to backload the cap with a big signing bonus which is pretty risky by the time you get to those year 5 and 6 seasons. So, if Jones would agree to $6 mil per year with $14-$15 mil guaranteed like Ekelar, a questionable proposition to start with, there's a way to do that while making him a "franchise" player in the other sense of the word. Lets say he plays 2020 under the current contract and if he's still rolling along as we've become accustomed you can franchise tag him for 2021. That's assuming you've not used the tag already on Clark. The running back franchise tag for 2020 is $12.5 mil, figure close to that next year. So he'd get $14 - $15 mil cash money in the next two years, the same as Ekeler, then year-to-year after that, just like Ekelar. Of course Jones would not have Ekeler's security until he gets through 2020 unscathed and gets to that guaranteed tag tender. But he would not have a choice, would he? Of course tags **** off players, so you'd have to calibrate whether that would affect performance. Risks are everywhere, choose your poison. Unfortunatly, that's not the end of the story. The Packers have a list of potentially high value FAs for 2021 without a lot of cap space and no obvious cuts to gain more. Absorbing a fresh $12.5 mil cap hit in 2021 would be tough pill to swallow. There isn't a clear path here, even without "pay the man" money, which Ekeler's contract is not. [/QUOTE]
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