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The Aaron Rodgers performance thread
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 857967"><p>From the standpoint of accuracy, the statistics don't bear that out, as I've taken some pains to point out, and the eye test that says some terrific throws are being made every game. The problem here is a combination of tricks of memory, viewing the game through the fantasy lens, and a dose of confirmation bias.</p><p></p><p>There's a tendency to view the past in terms of peak performance. But it's just that--the peak and not the average. What we have not seen this year is those couple of games of peak performance, but this season on balance is not so far off the average. Rodgers career emphasis on limiting interceptions seems elevated. That goes hand in hand with the observation, "We have a defense!" If you take out the high number of throwaways the last two season, his completion percentage is probable at or above the career average.</p><p></p><p>In short, I'm not sure where people think those career 36% of throws going incomplete were going.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Yeah, the answer is in between, but if you are going to allocate percentages the critics are overstating Rodgers' performance fall-off.</p><p></p><p>I don't watch the Eagles every week, but the lost value in Jeffery and Jackson being out may be exagerated. These guys are "names" but their injuries have been accumulating and productivity dropping for half a decade. Wentz's QB rating is down, not a bad season, not an elite QB either. They use the TEs and RBs more in the passing game and the gap is narrowed over what they might have gotten from those declining "stars". If playing against a Jeffery and Jackson, who they are not what they were, I'd have no fear in my heart. </p><p></p><p>That kind of reminds me of calls for the Packers to sign Emanual Sanders, another "name". That's another guy who has been injured and sliding for a couple of years. If he went on IR would you subtract anything from the 49ers odds? I wouldn't. That might well be addition by subtraction with more balls going to Samuel. That guys fast rising baller who should be getting more than 5 targets per game. It should go without saying, don't look at the names, look at the players.</p><p></p><p>Another example we could look at is Mahomes. Last season, packed with weapons, he had a year for the ages, proclaimed the next GOAT. Subtract Hunt and the numbers slide from insane to merely great. You can see the slide in Mahomes game logs immediately following Hunts release prior to Week 13 last season in the game logs:</p><p></p><p><a href="http://www.nfl.com/player/patrickmahomes/2558125/gamelogs?season=2018" target="_blank">http://www.nfl.com/player/patrickmahomes/2558125/gamelogs?season=2018</a></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 857967"] From the standpoint of accuracy, the statistics don't bear that out, as I've taken some pains to point out, and the eye test that says some terrific throws are being made every game. The problem here is a combination of tricks of memory, viewing the game through the fantasy lens, and a dose of confirmation bias. There's a tendency to view the past in terms of peak performance. But it's just that--the peak and not the average. What we have not seen this year is those couple of games of peak performance, but this season on balance is not so far off the average. Rodgers career emphasis on limiting interceptions seems elevated. That goes hand in hand with the observation, "We have a defense!" If you take out the high number of throwaways the last two season, his completion percentage is probable at or above the career average. In short, I'm not sure where people think those career 36% of throws going incomplete were going. Yeah, the answer is in between, but if you are going to allocate percentages the critics are overstating Rodgers' performance fall-off. I don't watch the Eagles every week, but the lost value in Jeffery and Jackson being out may be exagerated. These guys are "names" but their injuries have been accumulating and productivity dropping for half a decade. Wentz's QB rating is down, not a bad season, not an elite QB either. They use the TEs and RBs more in the passing game and the gap is narrowed over what they might have gotten from those declining "stars". If playing against a Jeffery and Jackson, who they are not what they were, I'd have no fear in my heart. That kind of reminds me of calls for the Packers to sign Emanual Sanders, another "name". That's another guy who has been injured and sliding for a couple of years. If he went on IR would you subtract anything from the 49ers odds? I wouldn't. That might well be addition by subtraction with more balls going to Samuel. That guys fast rising baller who should be getting more than 5 targets per game. It should go without saying, don't look at the names, look at the players. Another example we could look at is Mahomes. Last season, packed with weapons, he had a year for the ages, proclaimed the next GOAT. Subtract Hunt and the numbers slide from insane to merely great. You can see the slide in Mahomes game logs immediately following Hunts release prior to Week 13 last season in the game logs: [URL]http://www.nfl.com/player/patrickmahomes/2558125/gamelogs?season=2018[/URL] [/QUOTE]
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