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The 2019 Dantés Draft Thread
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 814928"><p>According the JJ chart, moving from 30 to 20 is 230 points, eqivalent to pick #72, so figure something equivalent to somewhere around the top of the 3rd. round, give or take. Moving up from 30 to 25 is 100 points, pick #100, top of the 4th. round, give or take.</p><p></p><p>This method of determining pick values in an information vacuum remains as good as any. In fact, when all information is in, trades still hue fairly closely to that chart. I took a look at trade values in the upper first round a couple of years ago and in the few cases where I noted significant straying from the chart (the trade ups for Julio Jones, Sammy Watkins and RGIII fall in this category if memory serves) involved their first round pick in the following season (or 2 seasons with RGIII).</p><p></p><p>It's understandable that a trade up involving future picks might cost more than the JJ chart would illustrate. First, there's the uncertainty of where that future pick or picks might land. Second, and more importantly in the "known knowns" equation, is the opportunity cost in discouting a future pick. A pick now is a bird in the hand to use immediately. That's worth more than a future bird in the bush. It doesn't do you much good to have a future pick if you're fired before you get there in a win now / what have you done for me lately situation among tenured GMs and coaches. New guys typically have a longer rope allowing them to look past the immediate year and snag future value if they are so inclined.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 814928"] According the JJ chart, moving from 30 to 20 is 230 points, eqivalent to pick #72, so figure something equivalent to somewhere around the top of the 3rd. round, give or take. Moving up from 30 to 25 is 100 points, pick #100, top of the 4th. round, give or take. This method of determining pick values in an information vacuum remains as good as any. In fact, when all information is in, trades still hue fairly closely to that chart. I took a look at trade values in the upper first round a couple of years ago and in the few cases where I noted significant straying from the chart (the trade ups for Julio Jones, Sammy Watkins and RGIII fall in this category if memory serves) involved their first round pick in the following season (or 2 seasons with RGIII). It's understandable that a trade up involving future picks might cost more than the JJ chart would illustrate. First, there's the uncertainty of where that future pick or picks might land. Second, and more importantly in the "known knowns" equation, is the opportunity cost in discouting a future pick. A pick now is a bird in the hand to use immediately. That's worth more than a future bird in the bush. It doesn't do you much good to have a future pick if you're fired before you get there in a win now / what have you done for me lately situation among tenured GMs and coaches. New guys typically have a longer rope allowing them to look past the immediate year and snag future value if they are so inclined. [/QUOTE]
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