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Reshape of Packers tight end group coming soon
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 809537"><p>Dead money isn't the real issue, though. It's a $7.3 mil sunk cost whether he stays or goes. One could say he's not worth his $12.7 mil 2019 cap number, but that's not the issue either at this juncture.</p><p></p><p>The way to assess the situation is relative to the $5.3 mil cap savings if he is released. Further, the decision needs to be made before the 5th. day of the league year otherwise his $5 mil roster bonus comes due which would wipe out the cap savings meaning he'd be penned in as the starting TE in 2019 at that point. So, there's 5 days of free agency to find a replacement, lock him in with the roster bonus, or cut him and roll the dice on a draft replacement.</p><p></p><p>Graham pros:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">He's a resonably productive receiver for $5.3 mil</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">He still draws chips and a fair amount of attention in the middle of the field, pluses that do not show up in the stat sheet</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Year 2 might yield better Rodgers chemistry</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">A new HC/OC might find ways to utilize him better</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">There's nobody on the roster now that can be relied upon to replace that production; Tonyan looks promising but is a only a speculation at this point; preseason is not money football</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The FA class looks thin, old guys and underwhelming guys and unproven guys. Please, not Eifert.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">In a "win now" approach keeping Graham would be the conservative thing to do</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Presumably the thumb will be healed and he's been a durable player other than the ruptured patella tendon that ended his 2015 season which he seemed to be mostly past in 2016</li> </ul><p>Graham cons:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">He can't block</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">There has been some decline in athleticism</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">He's not a particularly savvy route runner which becomes an increasing liability if the athleticism declines further</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">In a rebuilding program, the cap savings would be better spent elsewhere; his cap savings goes to $8 mil in 2020 so next season is likely his last with the Packers</li> </ul><p>I don't usually bother looking at FA lists or college tape this early, but I did this time looking at the two Iowa guys to illustrate a point. Hypothetically, lets say the Packers took Hockerson in the second round. The guy is a polished football player like a lot of Iowa guys coming out. We don't know his 40 time yet but he looks pretty fast, maybe 4.6. He looks like he has decent hands, can make some contested catches, and the kid can block. I don't think you'd lose much, if anything, with this guy on a cheap rookie contract. Then the $5 mil that is saved by cutting Graham can go into the FA kitty.</p><p></p><p>The problem is the signing bonus timing and a thin FA group which leaves the uncertainties of the draft.</p><p></p><p>I believe the Packers will keep him. Personally, I prefer building to 2020. If it is a deep TE class, which I'm not prepared to discuss, then the argument leans the other way.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 809537"] Dead money isn't the real issue, though. It's a $7.3 mil sunk cost whether he stays or goes. One could say he's not worth his $12.7 mil 2019 cap number, but that's not the issue either at this juncture. The way to assess the situation is relative to the $5.3 mil cap savings if he is released. Further, the decision needs to be made before the 5th. day of the league year otherwise his $5 mil roster bonus comes due which would wipe out the cap savings meaning he'd be penned in as the starting TE in 2019 at that point. So, there's 5 days of free agency to find a replacement, lock him in with the roster bonus, or cut him and roll the dice on a draft replacement. Graham pros: [LIST] [*]He's a resonably productive receiver for $5.3 mil [*]He still draws chips and a fair amount of attention in the middle of the field, pluses that do not show up in the stat sheet [*]Year 2 might yield better Rodgers chemistry [*]A new HC/OC might find ways to utilize him better [*]There's nobody on the roster now that can be relied upon to replace that production; Tonyan looks promising but is a only a speculation at this point; preseason is not money football [*]The FA class looks thin, old guys and underwhelming guys and unproven guys. Please, not Eifert. [*]In a "win now" approach keeping Graham would be the conservative thing to do [*]Presumably the thumb will be healed and he's been a durable player other than the ruptured patella tendon that ended his 2015 season which he seemed to be mostly past in 2016 [/LIST] Graham cons: [LIST] [*]He can't block [*]There has been some decline in athleticism [*]He's not a particularly savvy route runner which becomes an increasing liability if the athleticism declines further [*]In a rebuilding program, the cap savings would be better spent elsewhere; his cap savings goes to $8 mil in 2020 so next season is likely his last with the Packers [/LIST] I don't usually bother looking at FA lists or college tape this early, but I did this time looking at the two Iowa guys to illustrate a point. Hypothetically, lets say the Packers took Hockerson in the second round. The guy is a polished football player like a lot of Iowa guys coming out. We don't know his 40 time yet but he looks pretty fast, maybe 4.6. He looks like he has decent hands, can make some contested catches, and the kid can block. I don't think you'd lose much, if anything, with this guy on a cheap rookie contract. Then the $5 mil that is saved by cutting Graham can go into the FA kitty. The problem is the signing bonus timing and a thin FA group which leaves the uncertainties of the draft. I believe the Packers will keep him. Personally, I prefer building to 2020. If it is a deep TE class, which I'm not prepared to discuss, then the argument leans the other way. [/QUOTE]
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