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Projecting the 53 Man Roster
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<blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 832362" data-attributes="member: 12283"><p>You're right, that number was pretty close. </p><p></p><p>But the issue I have isn't just that the guys we have in house would create a low average punt return. It's that about half of our opponents' punts would not be returned. Williams and Cobb combined for 19 returns last year and 16 FC's. Davis had the problem of fair catching too often as well, but he was new to the role. If he improves in his judgment, the difference in field position would be more pronounced because not only would he average significantly more per return, but he would actually be creating more returns. </p><p></p><p>Take a nice round number of 50 returns. </p><p></p><p>Say the crew of underqualified guys decides to actually return 25 of them at 5.9 YPR. That's 148 PR yards on the season, or about 10 per game. But your true average, factoring fair catches, is 2.96 yds per opponent punt. </p><p></p><p>If Davis were to return 35 of them at 12 YPR, that's 420 PR yards, or 26 per game. The true average here is 8.4 yards per opponent punt. </p><p></p><p>The difference seems small, and it is on an average basis, but it wouldn't always be 8.4 yards. Sometimes it would be nothing, and sometimes it would be 20. Sometimes it would create really favorable field position. And favorable field position leads to more scoring, statically. </p><p></p><p>It's not all important, but it matters. So I don't know why we wouldn't keep a 53rd guy who can contribute in an area that matters as opposed to a healthy scratch linebacker or some OL who is roughly equivalent to the guys on the practice squad.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Dantés, post: 832362, member: 12283"] You're right, that number was pretty close. But the issue I have isn't just that the guys we have in house would create a low average punt return. It's that about half of our opponents' punts would not be returned. Williams and Cobb combined for 19 returns last year and 16 FC's. Davis had the problem of fair catching too often as well, but he was new to the role. If he improves in his judgment, the difference in field position would be more pronounced because not only would he average significantly more per return, but he would actually be creating more returns. Take a nice round number of 50 returns. Say the crew of underqualified guys decides to actually return 25 of them at 5.9 YPR. That's 148 PR yards on the season, or about 10 per game. But your true average, factoring fair catches, is 2.96 yds per opponent punt. If Davis were to return 35 of them at 12 YPR, that's 420 PR yards, or 26 per game. The true average here is 8.4 yards per opponent punt. The difference seems small, and it is on an average basis, but it wouldn't always be 8.4 yards. Sometimes it would be nothing, and sometimes it would be 20. Sometimes it would create really favorable field position. And favorable field position leads to more scoring, statically. It's not all important, but it matters. So I don't know why we wouldn't keep a 53rd guy who can contribute in an area that matters as opposed to a healthy scratch linebacker or some OL who is roughly equivalent to the guys on the practice squad. [/QUOTE]
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