Reply to thread

Message: <blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 876470" data-attributes="member: 12283">I call it a Pythagorean Differential because it's the difference between actual win total and what scoring differential would say was the most likely win total using Pythagorean Expectation. The theory, as I referenced in the OP, is that a team with a certain scoring differential, over time, will average a certain win total. A team that's +/- 0 in a given season could theoretically be a 11-5 or 5-11, but over time, teams with that scoring differential are going to general hover right around 8-8. Certainly, as I said from the beginning, the biggest factors controlling success and failure in the NFL are not random. The caliber of talent and the quality of coaching, the investment in training and the ability to develop skill, etc. However, random factors do influence things on the margins, and can be the difference in wins/losses in a given season. And because these certain factors tend to be random, they also tend to regress-- either positively, if a team was particularly unlucky, or negatively, if a team was particularly lucky.I do agree that some teams could have better medical staffs and better strength and conditioning programs than others. However, I still think injuries are most largely driven by luck. Consider the Vikings' finish in AGL over the last four seasons: 30th, 11th, 12th, 1st. Did their training go from horrible to mediocre to excellent? Or did they go from terrible luck, to average, or particularly lucky? I would argue the latter.I'm not dinging teams for winning close, per se. I am rather acknowledging that over time and across the league, having a really high or really low winning % in games decided by a touchdown or less regresses towards the mean.That does not mean that a particular team, like the Packers, couldn't have some skill in winning close. The two are not mutually exclusive. GB could regress from an 86% win rate in such games while still being good at winning close. Because other factors, not as well controlled, do influence these outcomes. I think of the phantom calls against Trey Flowers in their 1 point win over Detroit, for example.</blockquote>

Verification

Members online

Total: 73 (members: 5, guests: 68)

Latest posts

S
NFC North Predictions
- Latest: Schultz
- 5 minutes ago
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
Packers Push to Ban the **** Push
- Latest: gopkrs
- 9 minutes ago
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
2025 Roster - Semi Live Thread
- Latest: DoURant
- Today at 6:30 PM
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
2022 Draft Romeo Doubs #132
- Latest: Pokerbrat2000
- Today at 6:07 PM
Draft Talk
NFC North Draft Review (2025)
- Latest: Thirteen Below
- Today at 5:46 PM
Draft Talk