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Projecting Regression in the NFC North
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<blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 876266" data-attributes="member: 12283"><p><strong>2019 Record: </strong>8-8</p><p></p><p><strong>7 Point Record: </strong>The Bears were 6-3 in games decided by 7 or fewer points last season. The three losses were by 7 points, 3 points, and 1 point.</p><p></p><p><strong>Injury Luck: </strong>Chicago's 65.4 rated them 13th in Adjusted Games Lost-- a little better than average.</p><p></p><p><strong>Fumble Statistics: </strong>The Bears were +2 in this regard, losing 7 fumbles and recovering 9.</p><p></p><p><strong>Pythagorean Differential: </strong>By point differential, the Bears' win expectation was 7.4. So technically, they were the least bit lucky to end up at 8, but that's such a small difference that it's basically negligible.</p><p></p><p><strong>Other Factors: </strong>The Bears' big swing this off-season was to bring in Nick Foles, who will almost certainly replace Mitch... until he gets hurt. I guess we can also look forward to Nagy shocking the league by going "5 tight"-- spreading the defense out with five mediocre tight ends.</p><p></p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The Bears were a pretty "honest" 8-8 team, but unfortunately for them the metrics favor negative regression just slightly more than positive. Many people expected a lot more out of them last season, and I think given their underwhelming season, many of those same people would expect that they were very unlucky. But that wasn't the case. They are <em>really </em>relying on Nick Foles to come in and save the day, which is a dubious hope to say the least.</p><p></p><p><strong>2020 Prediction: </strong>I am predicting that <strong>the Bears go 7-9 in 2020</strong>. Nick Foles is a pretty strong candidate to get hurt behind that offensive line, and really he's just not very good. With a sub .500 season, I would guess that they blow the whole thing up, getting rid of Pace, Nagy, Trubisky, and Foles, and start the whole thing over.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Dantés, post: 876266, member: 12283"] [B]2019 Record: [/B]8-8 [B]7 Point Record: [/B]The Bears were 6-3 in games decided by 7 or fewer points last season. The three losses were by 7 points, 3 points, and 1 point. [B]Injury Luck: [/B]Chicago's 65.4 rated them 13th in Adjusted Games Lost-- a little better than average. [B]Fumble Statistics: [/B]The Bears were +2 in this regard, losing 7 fumbles and recovering 9. [B]Pythagorean Differential: [/B]By point differential, the Bears' win expectation was 7.4. So technically, they were the least bit lucky to end up at 8, but that's such a small difference that it's basically negligible. [B]Other Factors: [/B]The Bears' big swing this off-season was to bring in Nick Foles, who will almost certainly replace Mitch... until he gets hurt. I guess we can also look forward to Nagy shocking the league by going "5 tight"-- spreading the defense out with five mediocre tight ends. [B]Conclusion: [/B]The Bears were a pretty "honest" 8-8 team, but unfortunately for them the metrics favor negative regression just slightly more than positive. Many people expected a lot more out of them last season, and I think given their underwhelming season, many of those same people would expect that they were very unlucky. But that wasn't the case. They are [I]really [/I]relying on Nick Foles to come in and save the day, which is a dubious hope to say the least. [B]2020 Prediction: [/B]I am predicting that [B]the Bears go 7-9 in 2020[/B]. Nick Foles is a pretty strong candidate to get hurt behind that offensive line, and really he's just not very good. With a sub .500 season, I would guess that they blow the whole thing up, getting rid of Pace, Nagy, Trubisky, and Foles, and start the whole thing over. [/QUOTE]
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