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Projecting Regression in the NFC North
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<blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 876265" data-attributes="member: 12283"><p><strong>2019 Record: </strong>3-12-1</p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>7 Point Record: </strong>The Lions were a collective 3-7-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Their wins were decided by 3 points, 3 points, and 5 points. Three of their losses were decided by 3 points or fewer, and five of their losses by 4 points or fewer. A win rate of 32% is low, but not dramatically low.</p><p></p><p><strong>Injury Luck: </strong>According to Football Outsiders' Adjusted Games Lost, the Lions rated a 87.8 in 2019, 24th in the league (higher rank = healthier). This low ranking doesn't even really capture it, as the Lions lost Stafford for about half the season, and he was playing some of the best football of his career. When he went down, they were 3-4-1.</p><p></p><p><strong>Fumble Statistics: </strong>The Lions recovered 11 fumbles and lost 8, for a +3 margin. This is the only metric that would favor negative regression.</p><p></p><p><strong>Pythagorean Differential: </strong>By point differential, the Lions' win expectation was 6.1. This means that they underachieved that expectation by 2.6 games.</p><p></p><p><strong>Other Factors: </strong>The Lions' roster stagnated this off-season. For every major addition, there was a complementary departure and the coaching staff comes back in tact. They are a perfect subject for this exercise in that the factors within their control are basically status quo.</p><p></p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The metrics favor positive regression for the Lions more than any team in the division. They were reasonably unlucky in one score games, they had bad injury luck, and they unperformed against their point differential. Apart from these factors, the team is basically identical to the 2019 version.</p><p></p><p><strong>2020 Prediction: </strong>Figuring on health for Stafford and better performance in one score games, I would guess that the Lions <em>at least </em>double their 2019 win total. Unfortunately for Patricia and Detroit, double would still mean a paltry 6-10 record. 5 to 9 wins are within their range of likely outcomes. The low end probably gets everyone fired; the high end probably means they run it all back in 2021. <strong>I'll officially go with 7-9</strong>.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Dantés, post: 876265, member: 12283"] [B]2019 Record: [/B]3-12-1 [B] 7 Point Record: [/B]The Lions were a collective 3-7-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Their wins were decided by 3 points, 3 points, and 5 points. Three of their losses were decided by 3 points or fewer, and five of their losses by 4 points or fewer. A win rate of 32% is low, but not dramatically low. [B]Injury Luck: [/B]According to Football Outsiders' Adjusted Games Lost, the Lions rated a 87.8 in 2019, 24th in the league (higher rank = healthier). This low ranking doesn't even really capture it, as the Lions lost Stafford for about half the season, and he was playing some of the best football of his career. When he went down, they were 3-4-1. [B]Fumble Statistics: [/B]The Lions recovered 11 fumbles and lost 8, for a +3 margin. This is the only metric that would favor negative regression. [B]Pythagorean Differential: [/B]By point differential, the Lions' win expectation was 6.1. This means that they underachieved that expectation by 2.6 games. [B]Other Factors: [/B]The Lions' roster stagnated this off-season. For every major addition, there was a complementary departure and the coaching staff comes back in tact. They are a perfect subject for this exercise in that the factors within their control are basically status quo. [B]Conclusion: [/B]The metrics favor positive regression for the Lions more than any team in the division. They were reasonably unlucky in one score games, they had bad injury luck, and they unperformed against their point differential. Apart from these factors, the team is basically identical to the 2019 version. [B]2020 Prediction: [/B]Figuring on health for Stafford and better performance in one score games, I would guess that the Lions [I]at least [/I]double their 2019 win total. Unfortunately for Patricia and Detroit, double would still mean a paltry 6-10 record. 5 to 9 wins are within their range of likely outcomes. The low end probably gets everyone fired; the high end probably means they run it all back in 2021. [B]I'll officially go with 7-9[/B]. [/QUOTE]
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Projecting Regression in the NFC North
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