Prioritizing Needs

[Pokerbrat2000]

What's really kind of surprising to me is that of all the punt returners who had more than 10 returns in 2017, Trevor Davis' 12 yds/PR was 3rd in the league; only Detroit's Jamal Agnew and LA's Pharoh Cooper were better. And there were 39 guys who had 11 or more chances. I was really surprised to see that. Perhaps the narrative isn't fitting the reality with him.

Thanks for sharing that, surprises me as well. So maybe in regards to Davis, he just needs to be better schooled on when he should or shouldn't call for a fair catch? I still like Vogel, like most punters, he had a few too many "misses", but his Net Average of 41.6 ranked him 7th in the league.

 

[Mondio]

What's really kind of surprising to me is that of all the punt returners who had more than 10 returns in 2017, Trevor Davis' 12 yds/PR was 3rd in the league; only Detroit's Jamal Agnew and LA's Pharoh Cooper were better. And there were 39 guys who had 11 or more chances. I was really surprised to see that. Perhaps the narrative isn't fitting the reality with him.

He had a couple decent returns, and I think that helps his overall numbers. It on a kick to kick basis I was just never that impressed. And reality may very well be different than how I perceived it, but it seemed every game he was leaving field position on the field by making poor decisions. Either fair catching low line drive kicks that had 15 yards of return before he even hits the first defender or letting them hit and roll or fair catching inside the 5 yard line.

Maybe he has a great average but how many yards did we lose because he fair caught it at the 6 or 4 rather than get the ball at the 20?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

He had a couple decent returns, and I think that helps his overall numbers. It on a kick to kick basis I was just never that impressed. And reality may very well be different than how I perceived it, but it seemed every game he was leaving field position on the field by making poor decisions. Either fair catching low line drive kicks that had 15 yards of return before he even hits the first defender or letting them hit and roll or fair catching inside the 5 yard line.

Maybe he has a great average but how many yards did we lose because he fair caught it at the 6 or 4 rather than get the ball at the 20?

You and I were definitely watching the same games LOL. I often wonder how much leeway a returner is given on when to return or not to return. Is it 100 % his call or are there times when he is specifically told, "don't take any chances, just fair catch that ball". I do sort of recall one game towards the end of the season where he fair caught the ball like at the 5 yard line, to me that is a definite "no no". Seems to me the old rule is "10 yards on in, let it go"? Now that might have changed due to some punters having the ability to put spin on the ball to keep it from going much further.

 

[Dantés]

Thanks for sharing that, surprises me as well. So maybe in regards to Davis, he just needs to be better schooled on when he should or shouldn't call for a fair catch? I still like Vogel, like most punters, he had a few too many "misses", but his Net Average of 41.6 ranked him 7th in the league.

If the numbers aren't some fluke, I would say that Davis is good enough that they don't need to rank PR skills too highly in any WR they target.

Here are his punt returns individually:

1. Wk 1, SEA:
   1. 0 yd return
   2. 0 yd return
2. Wk 2, ATL: No returns
3. Wk 3, CIN:
   1. 33 yd return
   2. 10 yd return*
   3. 8 yd return
   4. 10 yd return
   5. 9 yd return
4. Wk 4, CHI:
   1. 16 yd return*
5. Wk 5, DAL: No returns
6. Wk 6, MIN:
   1. 8 yds*
7. Wk 7, NO: No returns
8. Wk 9, DET: No returns
9. Wk 10, CHI:
   1. 9 yd return
   2. 44 yd return*
   3. 6 yd return*
   4. 12 yd return
10. Wk 11, BAL:
    1. 9 yd return
11. Wk 12, PIT: No returns
12. Wk 13, TB:
    1. 2 yd return
13. Wk 14, CLE:
    1. -2 yd return
    2. 65 yd return
14. Wk 15, CAR
    1. 2 yd return*
15. Wk 16, MIN
    1. 5 yd return
    2. 12 yd return
    3. 12 yd return
16. Wk 17, DET
    1. 18 yd return
    2. 28 yd return

*Penalty on the play

I combed through the game logs for these 23 returns. I'm one short somehow, but oh well.

11 of the returns were 10+ yards, which is an obvious positive. 5 more were in that 8-9 yd range. So it isn't as though Davis' numbers lived on the bigger returns. There was some consistency.

If I recall correctly, his issues seemed to be more in the decision making department. Around the GL, he made some questionable calls as far as fair catching vs. letting the ball go. And I remember him fair catching at times when he had room to run. But when he actually has the ball in his hands (and he never did muff), he's quite capable. He only returned a total of 14 punts in college, so this is a relatively new skillset he's developing. Given the results, I'd be inclined to give him a shot at the job again and see if he can develop some better decision making skills as he gets more comfortable.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yes Coach Dantes......put Davis back in.....but fricking teach him when to and when not to fair catch! Also, can you keep the penalties down on special teams? Now that i saw those asterisk, that reminded me of one of the frustrating things about special teams and that is penalties. Why even bother returning the ball, taking a chance on a fumble, if you are going to consistently take stupid penalties. Maybe Zook will work on that, but I saw it being called on other teams, in other games as well.

Also, one caveat with using Davis, if he truly is a potential difference maker as a return guy he should be on the team, but I think you still need to audition the position to others. Davis only keeps the spot if he is head and shoulders above others or is solidly a bit above average and improves at WR.

 

[RepStar15]

I feel indifferent towards Davis, which may be a good feeling for a punt returner. I never get excited when he returns it, but I am never too nervous he will fumble. I would not be upset if they looked for a rookie punt returner this year and moved on from him. Also would not be upset to see him return punts next year. I just feel like a duel rookie WR/punt returner is more valuable than him.

 

[Mondio]

It was the decision making I had the most trouble with. I do vaguely remember reading they told him that the 7 is the new 10

But he's fast and can be dangerous back there. And it seems like there should be more asterisks

 

[Dantés]

Yes Coach Dantes......put Davis back in.....but fricking teach him when to and when not to fair catch! Also, can you keep the penalties down on special teams? Now that i saw those asterisk, that reminded me of one of the frustrating things about special teams and that is penalties. Why even bother returning the ball, taking a chance on a fumble, if you are going to consistently take stupid penalties. Maybe Zook will work on that, but I saw it being called on other teams, in other games as well.

Also, one caveat with using Davis, if he truly is a potential difference maker as a return guy he should be on the team, but I think you still need to audition the position to others. Davis only keeps the spot if he is head and shoulders above others or is solidly a bit above average and improves at WR.

Yeah, I'm only advocating that he should be given another shot at it in camp. But prior to actually looking it up, I was under the impression of the narrative that he was totally hapless in the role. So I was thinking that we really need to prioritize PR skills high in the draft. But given that Davis was actually pretty capable, I think they can just find him some competition as it comes to them on the board.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I feel indifferent towards Davis, which may be a good feeling for a punt returner. I never get excited when he returns it, but I am never too nervous he will fumble. I would not be upset if they looked for a rookie punt returner this year and moved on from him. Also would not be upset to see him return punts next year. I just feel like a duel rookie WR/punt returner is more valuable than him.

I am in the same camp as you. I understand that you need specialists and if they are truly special, then they are worth the roster spot. However, if they are only average or a bit above at their "special role" and suck at any of the other 22 positions, then give that roster spot to a guy who can also contribute elsewhere. Micah Hyde and Cobb were both guys who were decent at returning punts, but they both contributed elsewhere too. Jeff Janis, doubt he is resigned, because his one year of being special as a gunner has dried up and he has no future as a WR.

 

[Poppa San]

Don't follow them, so how do they determine the winner in the minor sports?

Didn't want to get nailed by someone bringing up golf.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

It's interesting that there hasn't been a lot of discussion about Special Teams. I think this is another area the Packers need improvement on. Apparently, MM is still happy with the job that Ron Zook is doing. While the Packers special teams hasn't been terrible, they also haven't been that special either.

According to Football Outsiders the Packers special teams improved this season finishing in 14th in 2017 up seven spots from the previous year.

First I've ever seen you clearly and concisely admit this.

I definitely mentioned before that a drop-off in performance is to be expected when teams have to play backups but that it shouldn't be as steep as with the Packers in the past few years.

What's really kind of surprising to me is that of all the punt returners who had more than 10 returns in 2017, Trevor Davis' 12 yds/PR was 3rd in the league; only Detroit's Jamal Agnew and LA's Pharoh Cooper were better. And there were 39 guys who had 11 or more chances. I was really surprised to see that. Perhaps the narrative isn't fitting the reality with him.

The Packers actually finished second in the league in punt return average. Only two teams had less attempts than Green Bay though.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

According to Football Outsiders the Packers special teams improved this season finishing in 14th in 2017 up seven spots from the previous year.

So pretty much "average", which is better than some years for sure. I still would like to see Davis make better decisions on punt returns/fair catches, fewer penalties and just like I would like to see on defense, guys being taught to not just make a tackle, but if they have a good clean shot at it, tear that ball out.

The Packers actually finished second in the league in punt return average. Only two teams had less attempts than Green Bay though.

A pretty telling stat about your defense not being able to get off the field by forcing more punts.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

So pretty much "average", which is better than some years for sure. I still would like to see Davis make better decisions on punt returns/fair catches, fewer penalties and just like I would like to see on defense, guys being taught to not just make a tackle, but if they have a good clean shot at it, tear that ball out.


A pretty telling stat about your defense not being able to get off the field by forcing more punts.

Don't get me wrong I would like the special teams to improve as well but they aren't that bad to think about replacing Zook. The Packers only ranked 27th in the league in the total number of punts forced.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Don't get me wrong I would like the special teams to improve as well but they aren't that bad to think about replacing Zook. The Packers only ranked 27th in the league in the total number of punts forced.

You are correct. I may have overstated my original point on "why there hasn't been more conversation about improving special teams". Apparently, they aren't as bad as I had them in my mind, but I still would like to see them better than average.

 

[Dantés]

Let's update the list of needs for 2019. This is how I see them. However, I should mention that this isn't necessarily the order in which I think they should be addressed. Some positions are lower on the lists of needs, but are more valuable or harder to come by.

1. Safety: The Packers will head into 2019 with Kentrell Brice, Josh Jones, and Raven Greene at safety. There is still some potential there, but nothing to rely on. This is a spot where they absolutely have to sign a sure fire starter and will still need to invest some draft capital.
2. Edge: If the Packers cut Perry and let Matthews walk (and I think they should), then you're talking about Fackrell, Gilbert, and Donnerson. End of list. This is another spot where they need to both sign and draft. Safety and Edge are a 1a/1b situation.
3. Guard: Between Bell and McCray, this has been the weakest spot on the line (as expected). The FA class is pretty bad, so I'd look to the draft.
4. Tackle: They should probably keep Bulaga as a bridge to a new RT, but they need to draft his replacement and will probably need to do it in the first couple rounds. Perhaps they could find someone to start at RG and be the heir apparent at RT. The OT class isn't much better than the OG class in FA, so I'd again look to the draft.
5. Defensive Line: Daniels is entering his final season. If they love what they're seeing from Adams, then maybe this should be lower, but I would expect that the future 3T next to Clark isn't currently on the roster. Given that they are still paying Daniels, and may want to keep both Clark and Lowry, I think a rookie contract makes the most sense.
6. Tight End: Jimmy Graham will be back, and Robert Tonyan is a fun project, but they need someone who can block.
7. Wide Receiver: I think they tender Allison and bring him back. If they do, then they just need to find a YAC wide receiver to replace Cobb. Someone with return skills would be great.
8. Kicker: They need to shed Crosby's contract.
9. Running Back: Given his pass pro skills and short yardage ability, I'm fine with Williams on the roster, but I'd rather give spell carries/targets to a more dynamic player when Jones isn't on the field.
10. Quarterback: I think it's time to start throwing darts at QB to increase the odds of striking gold in a Rodgers' replacement-- but just in the mid to late rounds for now.
11. Linebacker: Martinez is a hard player to figure out, but if they like him for the future, then this would be a depth spot. Oren Burks was always going to be a project.
12. Cornerback: You figure that Alexander, King, and Jackson are the foundation of the future here.

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

My ranking of OPs positions:

1. A starting CB
2. EDGE contributors
3. A starting RG or OG depth depending on how one sees McCray
4. ILB depth or potentially a starter with more athleticism
5. A QB2 to replace Hundley
6. WR depth, especially with speed
7. RT depth depending on how one sees Murphy and Spriggs
8. DL depth
9. Depth at safety
10. A TE1 and depth at the position

I wouldn't mind doubling up on CB and Edge picks too!

I seen expansion teams asking for less..LOL

 

[Dantés]

I seen expansion teams asking for less..LOL

1. The list you quoted is from last year. The updated list is above your post.

2. The Packers have plenty of work to do, but only 3-4 of the positions on that list are calling for immediate starters, and they don't all have to come through the draft. This roster isn't barren.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Let's update the list of needs for 2019. This is how I see them. However, I should mention that this isn't necessarily the order in which I think they should be addressed. Some positions are lower on the lists of needs, but are more valuable or harder to come by.

1. Safety: The Packers will head into 2019 with Kentrell Brice, Josh Jones, and Raven Greene at safety. There is still some potential there, but nothing to rely on. This is a spot where they absolutely have to sign a sure fire starter and will still need to invest some draft capital.
2. Edge: If the Packers cut Perry and let Matthews walk (and I think they should), then you're talking about Fackrell, Gilbert, and Donnerson. End of list. This is another spot where they need to both sign and draft. Safety and Edge are a 1a/1b situation.
3. Guard: Between Bell and McCray, this has been the weakest spot on the line (as expected). The FA class is pretty bad, so I'd look to the draft.
4. Tackle: They should probably keep Bulaga as a bridge to a new RT, but they need to draft his replacement and will probably need to do it in the first couple rounds. Perhaps they could find someone to start at RG and be the heir apparent at RT. The OT class isn't much better than the OG class in FA, so I'd again look to the draft.
5. Defensive Line: Daniels is entering his final season. If they love what they're seeing from Adams, then maybe this should be lower, but I would expect that the future 3T next to Clark isn't currently on the roster. Given that they are still paying Daniels, and may want to keep both Clark and Lowry, I think a rookie contract makes the most sense.
6. Tight End: Jimmy Graham will be back, and Robert Tonyan is a fun project, but they need someone who can block.
7. Wide Receiver: I think they tender Allison and bring him back. If they do, then they just need to find a YAC wide receiver to replace Cobb. Someone with return skills would be great.
8. Kicker: They need to shed Crosby's contract.
9. Running Back: Given his pass pro skills and short yardage ability, I'm fine with Williams on the roster, but I'd rather give spell carries/targets to a more dynamic player when Jones isn't on the field.
10. Quarterback: I think it's time to start throwing darts at QB to increase the odds of striking gold in a Rodgers' replacement-- but just in the mid to late rounds for now.
11. Linebacker: Martinez is a hard player to figure out, but if they like him for the future, then this would be a depth spot. Oren Burks was always going to be a project.
12. Cornerback: You figure that Alexander, King, and Jackson are the foundation of the future here.

I agree with everything here, almost. King hasn’t shown he can be relied upon, and perversely, he hasn’t played enough time to know if he’s reliable when (if) healthy. That said, the Packers no longer need to spend round 1 and 2picks on CBs

 

[XPack]

I seen expansion teams asking for less..LOL

Jeez dude. You should have some idea of context/timeline before quoting that. That was way before this season.

 

[rodell330]

They need TWO safeties. Brice isn’t a starter and shouldn’t be..Jones?? Meh..he hasn’t done anything to warrant a starting spot either...but he’s better than Brice that’s for sure.

 

[Do7]

I'd also entertain the idea of bringing in another kicker to give Crosby some "healthy" competition.

 

[Dantés]

They need TWO safeties. Brice isn’t a starter and shouldn’t be..Jones?? Meh..he hasn’t done anything to warrant a starting spot either...but he’s better than Brice that’s for sure.

If they sign a veteran starter, as I think they should/will, then I imagine they'd probably throw a mid round rookie into the mix of Jones, Brice, and Greene, and let that group of four compete for the other spot. But you're right that signing one won't negate the need to draft one.

 

[elcid]

If they sign a veteran starter, as I think they should/will, then I imagine they'd probably throw a mid round rookie into the mix of Jones, Brice, and Greene, and let that group of four compete for the other spot. But you're right that signing one won't negate the need to draft one.

It probably won't negate the need to draft one, but if they do sign one, I'd not be surprised if they didn't draft a S.

From your list, I'd probably say EDGE-RG-S-WR-RT-RB-K-TE are our most important needs respectively. I'm gonna give my take on the upcoming draft and FA, given that we resign Breeland, Allison and Wilkerson, sign a quality S and from the most noteworthy potential cut candidates only cut Bulaga and Crosby.

For Edge, I'd love to see the Packers double dip at EDGE, with preferably our first pick and a 2nd-4th rounder. I'm not sold on cutting Perry yet as it is just not very efficient cap money wise. I'd rather do it next year as his cap savings would be relatively bigger (correct me if I am wrong?). Maybe after a strong draft, but right now I think he is the veteran presence we need if Matthews is walking (which he will). I got to admit I also have a little homer bias here since my nickname is Perry and I just really want his jersey if he actually has an epic year for once. Little chance though. In FA, I dont see us competing for Clowney. Smith/Fowler/Ray seem like more reasonable targets, but I think the Packers gonna come up empty handed in all of these pursuits (if they engage in any).

I think giving Aarod more peace of mind starts with a cleaner inside pocket. I'd agree with you on drafting a RG, in the 3-4 round range if it were up to me.

For S, some interesting FA options where thrown around by forum members. I too believe this is where the FO is going to aggressively pursuit a FA. Mathieu would be my preferred choice. Collins would be great too. If we do sign one, I dont mind if the Packers take one with a day 3 pick. I wouldn't enjoy another high pick thrown at the secondary, and I believe Jones + Signed FA can hold the line adequately. I also saw an article suggesting that Jackson should get some reps there. I really don't mind seeing some experiments happening at the central backend these past 4 weeks in order to really determine what we can get out of all our youngsters in the secondary.

Cobb is gone, and while Adams has shown to be a legit WR1, I am not to confident that Allison with ESB, MVS and Kumerow will be strong enough of a group. A shifty slot guy would be my preferred pick, with either our last pick of the 1st round or a day 2 pick. Also a possibility to target a FA, but I can't really think of any that would be cost-effective options. Jamison Crowder maybe?

Drafting a solid RT is paramount. I'd cut Bulaga; cutting him essentially provides enough cap space to resign Allison, Breeland and Wilkerson, solidifying 3 positional groups in the process. I'd like to see our 2nd or 3rd pick spend at RT.

J Williams is imo nothing more than a reliable back up, and adding a dynamic bruiser à la Cook/Henry would be wonderful. I wouldn't even mind drafting one higher than a WR if the right prospect slips due to the devaluation of its position. When did ATL or NO become dangerous? When they had an explosive RB duo. What better way to relieve pressure of Rodgers if we are able to consistently obtain a new set of downs by just running the ball? Even though I like A Jones a lot, I'm not confident he can be a true bell cow with 40 carries a game. I'd like to see them take a prospect in either the 2nd or 3rd. In FA, Bell would be great but we'd be outbid by the Colts or Jets. Furthermore he is somewhat similar to what we have in Jones. Ingram or Barber maybe?

K is pretty obvious, Crosby has not been producing up to the standards and it seems time to move on. A 6th rounder would hopefully do the job.

Finally, some depth at TE would be nice as well. Graham is here to stay, and I'd like to see Tonyan move up in the pecking order now that Kendricks and Lewis are gone. Taking a day 3 prospect would be my choice.

To conclude things, I'd add a cover ILB for depth. I think we are still set on the DL for one year if Wilkerson is back and, Daniels, Clark, Lowry and Adams can still ball out. CB is another group I'd still be confident in with Alexander/King/Jackson/Breeland/Williams/Brown. Maybe add a bargain FA for depth. LT LG C QB have performed well enough to not warrant any strengthening at this point.

By my (very) rough estimations, this would give the Packers ample of room to pursuit a guy like Mathieu, a good complementing offensive piece (RB, WR) while also being able to extend Clark and Martinez respectively in 2019. This would also leave space to pursuit backup depth at CB/OL. My draft would then look as following:

1a EDGE
1b RT/WR
2 WR/RT
3 RB
4a EDGE
4b RG
5 S
6a K
6b TE
7 ILB

Pretty offensively oriented, and while I know thats not ideal given that its a defense heavy draft, I feel like focussing on O is just more important this year. IF we retool correctly now we can bring back stability in the O for years to come. Furthermore, if we are able to sign a good offensive piece in FA, our remaining defensive needs in S and ILB can move up the board.

Finally, I'd like to stress that this is just my visualisation of needs in order of importance, assuming that we pretty much keep all our under contract players apart from Crosby and Bulaga, bring back relatively cheap one year stops in Allison, Wilkerson and Breeland, and sign a quality S.

 

[FaninColorado]

While I totally agree with the EDGE rushers as a major need... The problem exists in this years draft that many of the top prospects aren't OLB's that would be used to replace CM3 and/or Perry. Outside of say Allen from Kentucky and maybe a couple others, the majority are basically DE's. This puts them into a position of using them in a 3-4 scheme that requires them to cover RB's and TE's at times. It is possible that some can make that jump, but we've seen Nick Perry succeed at times and fail at times due to the position change from college to the pros.

I'm actually responding to this thread because this draft class depth at all parts of the DL would allow us to actually make the switch from the 3-4 to the 4-3. Drafting these EDGE DE's would then fit in perfect while also helping out the ILB position that we've been having problems at for 4-5 years (At least). Re-Signing Wilkerson, signing an EDGE FA like Fowler or similar, and drafting one or two more EDGE DE's would make that a position of strength while taking a weakness at the ILB position and turning it into a strength. Blake Martinez is a good, solid ILB and the switch to 4-3 would only help him more.

 

[sschind]

J Williams is imo nothing more than a reliable back up, and adding a dynamic bruiser à la Cook/Henry would be wonderful. I wouldn't even mind drafting one higher than a WR if the right prospect slips due to the devaluation of its position. When did ATL or NO become dangerous? When they had an explosive RB duo. What better way to relieve pressure of Rodgers if we are able to consistently obtain a new set of downs by just running the ball? Even though I like A Jones a lot, I'm not confident he can be a true bell cow with 40 carries a game. I'd like to see them take a prospect in either the 2nd or 3rd. In FA, Bell would be great but we'd be outbid by the Colts or Jets. Furthermore he is somewhat similar to what we have in Jones. Ingram or Barber maybe?

That would require our new HC having a different mindset than the previous one and actually run the ball. I don't disagree with you I'm just saying having a successful Kamara/Ingram type duo would most likely necessitate a departure from relying on AR so much. New Orleans was a perennial top 10 in passing attempt percentage per game until they got that duo and then they started to change. They are #29 now. I for one would love it but there still are lots of fans who think we should let AR throw 75-80% of the time.