Post-Draft 53 Projection

tynimiller

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Needed to flesh out the roster in my head so eh figured I'd slap it up for discussion.....very early Post-Draft 53 projection:

QB - 3 (3)
Love
Clifford
Pratt

RB - 4 (7)
Jacobs
Dillon
Lloyd
Wilson

TE - 3 (10)
Musgrave
Kraft
Sims

WR - 6 (16)
Watson
Doubs
Reed
Wicks
Heath
Melton

OL - 10 (26)
Walker
Jenkins
Myers
Rhyan
Tom
Morgan
Monk
Dillard
Jennings - My bet to keep the UDFA on 53 tendency alive.
Glover

Offense - 26

LBs - 4 (4)

McDuffie
Walker
Cooper
Hopper


DL/EDGE - 10 (14)
Gary
Smith
Van Ness
Enagbare
Brooks
Clark
Cox
Slaton
Wooden
Wyatt

CB - 5 (19)
Alexander
Stokes
Valentine
Nixon
King

S - 5 (24)
McKinney
Johnson Jr
Bullard
Williams
Oladapo

Defense - 24
ST

Joseph
Bowden
Whelan
 

Dantés

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Here's another way to think about it.

Locks (98+%):

1. J. Love, QB
2. J. Jacobs, RB
3. M. Lloyd, RB
4. L. Musgrave, TE
5. T. Kraft, TE
6. C. Watson, WR
7. R. Doubs, WR
8. J. Reed, WR
9. D. Wicks, WR
10. R. Walker, OT
11. Z. Tom, OT
12. J. Morgan, OT
13. E. Jenkins, G
14. S. Rhyan, G
15. J. Monk, C/G
16. K. Clark, DT
17. D. Wyatt, DT
18. T. Slaton, DT
19. K. Brooks, DT
20. C. Wooden, DT
21. R. Gary, DE
22. P. Smith, DE
23. L. Van Ness, DE
24. K. Enagbare, DE
25. Q. Walker, LB
26. E. Cooper, LB
27. T. Hopper, LB
28. I. McDuffie, LB
29. J. Alexander, CB
30. C. Valentine, CB
31. E. Stokes, CB
32. K. Nixon, CB
33. X. McKinney, S
34. J. Bullard, S
35. E. Williams, S
36. K. Oladapo, S
37. D. Whelan, P


Very Likely (80+%):

38. S. Clifford, QB
39. A. Dillon, RB
40. B. Sims, TE
41. B. Melton, WR
42. J. Myers, C/G
43. C. Ballentine, CB
44. A. Johnson Jr, S


More Likely than Not (51+%):

45. M. Pratt, QB
46. M. Heath, WR
47. A. Dillard, OT
48. D. Jennings, OL
49. T. Glover, OL
50. B. Cox, DE
51. E. Wilson, LB
52. K. King, CB
53. A. Carlson, K
54. P. Bowden, LS


Coin Flip (50/50):

55. T. Davis, TE
56. J. Ford, DT
57. Z. Anderson, S


Less than Likely (30+%):

58. E. Wilson, RB
59. H. Pearson, FB
60. G. Dubose, WR
61. C. Jones, OT
62. L. Tenuta, OT
63. R. Newman, G
64. K. Banks, DE
65. K. Welch, LB
66. G. Joseph, K
67. M. Orzech, LS


Very Unlikely (20+%):

68. J. Howard, RB
69.J. Hicks, WR
70. S. Toure, WR
71. K. Telfort, OT
72. S. Waege, DT
73. C. Young, LB
74. R. Rochell, CB
75. T. Coyle, S
76. B. Sapp, S


Locked Out (<2%):

77. E. Merriweather, RB
78. J. Wilson, TE
79. M. Swinson, TE
80. D. Stanley, WR
81. A. McGough, WR
82. L. Smith, OL
83. J. Ester, DT
84. D. Alexandre, DE
85. A. Mosby, DE
86. K. Odumegwu, DE
87. R. Goforth, LB
88. Z. Gilbert, CB
89. G. Green, CB
90. J. Podlesny, K
 
Last edited:

Dantés

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Think Joseph will defeat Carlson unless Carlson outplays over in a great season in the preseason.

Joseph is 30 this season. His cap hit is 1.15M and he’s a free agent in 2024. He can be cut with zero dead cap. His career FG % is 82.6.

Carlson is 26 and he’s on a rookie deal for 3 more seasons. His FG % as a rookie was 81.8.

Carlson needs to clean up the extra points, but Joseph also has a dubious history with them. He’s actually had a season with a worse PAT % than Carlson had last year.

Carlson is the clear favorite and would have to get dramatically outperformed to lose his job to Joseph.

I don’t think it’s a very serious competition.
 

Voyageur

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Joseph is 30 this season. His cap hit is 1.15M and he’s a free agent in 2024. He can be cut with zero dead cap. His career FG % is 82.6.

Carlson is 26 and he’s on a rookie deal for 3 more seasons. His FG % as a rookie was 81.8.

Carlson needs to clean up the extra points, but Joseph also has a dubious history with them. He’s actually had a season with a worse PAT % than Carlson had last year.

Carlson is the clear favorite and would have to get dramatically outperformed to lose his job to Joseph.

I don’t think it’s a very serious competition.
I'm not certain I'd go with Carlson this year. He doesn't have ice water in his veins. You can't make those that don't matter, and blow the ones that count. I think that's gone through both the coaching staff and Gute's minds. I think he's facing stiff camp competition to be honest.
 

Dantés

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I'm not certain I'd go with Carlson this year. He doesn't have ice water in his veins. You can't make those that don't matter, and blow the ones that count. I think that's gone through both the coaching staff and Gute's minds. I think he's facing stiff camp competition to be honest.

I think that's a really bold determination to make after one season. What makes you so confident that Carlson isn't a player who can make kicks that count?

Also if he's facing stiff competition, where is it?
 

Voyageur

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I think that's a really bold determination to make after one season. What makes you so confident that Carlson isn't a player who can make kicks that count?

Also if he's facing stiff competition, where is it?
When you bring in two guys to compete against your present kicker, it doesn't show a ton of confidence in his ability. It's a sign that they are more than willing to part with him if they see there's potential difference. The two are Podlesney, a rookie, and Joseph, who was ranked 24th in the league last year. That, I'm sad to say, is 13 spots higher than Carlson who was 37th in a 32 team league.

Now, let's deal with specifics. Carlson missed kicks in each of the last 5 games, including the 41 yard kick that ended up costing them the game against the 49ers in the playoffs. Not exactly a good taste left in the mouths of anyone on the team, sidelines, or front office. Obviously, they'd like to see improvement in that area, not look at it as acceptable.

If you're so knowledgeable that you think I made a bad determination, imagine where that leaves me feeling about how uninformed your statement is. If you intend to "admonish me" for what you think is a dumb comment, be my guest, but at least do it with thought out responses based on facts, not an opinion you have based on watching games while sitting on the sofa eating Doritos.

Your turn!

EDIT: LAST YEAR'S RANKINGS
 

Dantés

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When you bring in two guys to compete against your present kicker, it doesn't show a ton of confidence in his ability. It's a sign that they are more than willing to part with him if they see there's potential difference. The two are Podlesney, a rookie, and Joseph, who was ranked 24th in the league last year. That, I'm sad to say, is 13 spots higher than Carlson who was 37th in a 32 team league.

Now, let's deal with specifics. Carlson missed kicks in each of the last 5 games, including the 41 yard kick that ended up costing them the game against the 49ers in the playoffs. Not exactly a good taste left in the mouths of anyone on the team, sidelines, or front office. Obviously, they'd like to see improvement in that area, not look at it as acceptable.

If you're so knowledgeable that you think I made a bad determination, imagine where that leaves me feeling about how uninformed your statement is. If you intend to "admonish me" for what you think is a dumb comment, be my guest, but at least do it with thought out responses based on facts, not an opinion you have based on watching games while sitting on the sofa eating Doritos.

Your turn!

EDIT: LAST YEAR'S RANKINGS

Carlson's FG % was 1.8% better than Joseph's last year and is 0.8% worse than Joseph's career FG%. Carlson underperformed on extra points, but Carlson has struggled in that area too. He has two seasons in which he had a worst XPA % than Carlson had last season.

He is also younger, cheaper, and under cheap team control.

So while Joseph and Podlesny are clearly in camp to push him (I'm skeptical that Podlesny will actually make it to training camp, but we will see), neither of them present much of a threat. They're basically 2nd/3rd options in case Carlson goes backwards.

By no means do I think Carlson is a lock. If he regresses, he could easily lose the job. But the team has told us that he's the clear favorite based on who they chose to bring into camp. If they were legitimately intent on moving on or convinced that Carlson can't be the guy, they would have signed/drafted much better options.

Hence my question about where the stiff competition is. They brought in a guy who is worse than Carlson and is a less attractive roster option in all the peripherals.

And my other question is how you could have possibly decided after one season that a rookie kicker does or does not have the mentality to make it in the NFL, especially when we have seen so many successful kickers who got off to a bumpy start in their careers. For example, it took Crosby until year five to crack 80% and the year after he did, he was at 63.6!

My questions weren't meant to belittle you. I'm trying to understand what I think is an outlandish take. If that offends you, football forums probably aren't a great environment for you.
 

Voyageur

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Carlson's FG % was 1.8% better than Joseph's last year and is 0.8% worse than Joseph's career FG%. Carlson underperformed on extra points, but Carlson has struggled in that area too. He has two seasons in which he had a worst XPA % than Carlson had last season.

He is also younger, cheaper, and under cheap team control.

So while Joseph and Podlesny are clearly in camp to push him (I'm skeptical that Podlesny will actually make it to training camp, but we will see), neither of them present much of a threat. They're basically 2nd/3rd options in case Carlson goes backwards.

By no means do I think Carlson is a lock. If he regresses, he could easily lose the job. But the team has told us that he's the clear favorite based on who they chose to bring into camp. If they were legitimately intent on moving on or convinced that Carlson can't be the guy, they would have signed/drafted much better options.

Hence my question about where the stiff competition is. They brought in a guy who is worse than Carlson and is a less attractive roster option in all the peripherals.

And my other question is how you could have possibly decided after one season that a rookie kicker does or does not have the mentality to make it in the NFL, especially when we have seen so many successful kickers who got off to a bumpy start in their careers. For example, it took Crosby until year five to crack 80% and the year after he did, he was at 63.6!

My questions weren't meant to belittle you. I'm trying to understand what I think is an outlandish take. If that offends you, football forums probably aren't a great environment for you.
You have every right in the world to disagree with me. Just don't make things sound confrontational, as if the person you disagree with is an idiot because they don't agree with you.

There's nothing outlandish about what I said, and no matter how you state it, there's no evidence, except your opinion, that a guy who finished 37th in the NFL as a kicker is better than the guy who finished 24th, or that he's automatically better than a rookie, who still has to be tested. The decisions, in regards to this issue, will be decided on the field, and it's the coaches who will decide who stays and who goes, not either you or I.

But, that's just my opinion, for what it's worth. And by the way. I don't hold grudges. As far as I'm concerned, we had a disagreement, and by tomorrow morning, it won't matter one bit, because we're both adults and we both like stating our opinions on sports, whether they're right or wrong.
 

sschind

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I still think its Carlson's job to lose. I understand bringing in competition but I do agree with Dantes if they didn't have confidence they would have brought in someone other than who they did. I also don't think they would give up on him so soon. My theory is there is something with the vikings that Gute wants info on. Joseph kicked for them and the rookie was with them as well. As soon as he milks them for whatever he needs they will be gone. I have no idea what it might be but if I had to guess it has something to do with that stupid fake snow they have or that stupid horn.
 

Thirteen Below

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My theory is there is something with the vikings that Gute wants info on. Joseph kicked for them and the rookie was with them as well. As soon as he milks them for whatever he needs they will be gone. I have no idea what it might be but if I had to guess it has something to do with that stupid fake snow they have or that stupid horn.
I hope it works. I have felt for many years that the only thing keeping us from becoming a true dynasty is that we haven't figured out how to copy that horn.
 

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