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<blockquote data-quote="Thirteen Below" data-source="post: 1082817" data-attributes="member: 18006"><p>There's a good chance Jacobs will aggravate that injury again this week, if the swelling even goes down enough for him to play at all. He was LP today, DNP all week, and is listed as questionable. Lloyd was LP Wednesday and Thursday, DNP today, and is out this weekend. Not good. Our running game is going to suffer; we can't afford to break Jacobs.</p><p></p><p>This was one of the things I worried about earlier this year - that if Lloyd missed a lot of time, we'd be going into December with a banged-up, beat-up 27-year old back carrying most of the footballs. And that's where we are. Lloyd missing at least the first 14 games is really a bad thing.</p><p></p><p>I remember last year, there was talk of the "1800 carry cliff" for some older RB... can't recall who. Apparently this is a thing (albeit an obscure one); statistically, right around 1800 career carries is right around the point where most backs show a significant drop in productivity and durability. Jacobs hit 1812 last weekend, and 300 carries last year - his second highest total.</p><p></p><p>It's way too soon to say the sky is falling and he's near the end of the road, but the fact is, he's closer to the end than he is the beginning. He's taken a lot of hits over the years. By comparison, Aaron Jones is 4 years older, and he's averaged 2/3 of Jacob's workload over his career. He never had more than about 230 carries in a season here; we spread his load out a lot more. Something we were expecting to do between Jacobs and Lloyd the last 2 years, but it didn't work out that way.</p><p></p><p>There's a lot riding on Lloyd right now. If we do get him back for the last 2 or 3 games, and he goes down again, we're going to be in a bad place with our RB room going forward. Probably in a position where we have no choice but to go RB on Day 2 again, which I'm sure none of us were expecting when we drafted Lloyd.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Thirteen Below, post: 1082817, member: 18006"] There's a good chance Jacobs will aggravate that injury again this week, if the swelling even goes down enough for him to play at all. He was LP today, DNP all week, and is listed as questionable. Lloyd was LP Wednesday and Thursday, DNP today, and is out this weekend. Not good. Our running game is going to suffer; we can't afford to break Jacobs. This was one of the things I worried about earlier this year - that if Lloyd missed a lot of time, we'd be going into December with a banged-up, beat-up 27-year old back carrying most of the footballs. And that's where we are. Lloyd missing at least the first 14 games is really a bad thing. I remember last year, there was talk of the "1800 carry cliff" for some older RB... can't recall who. Apparently this is a thing (albeit an obscure one); statistically, right around 1800 career carries is right around the point where most backs show a significant drop in productivity and durability. Jacobs hit 1812 last weekend, and 300 carries last year - his second highest total. It's way too soon to say the sky is falling and he's near the end of the road, but the fact is, he's closer to the end than he is the beginning. He's taken a lot of hits over the years. By comparison, Aaron Jones is 4 years older, and he's averaged 2/3 of Jacob's workload over his career. He never had more than about 230 carries in a season here; we spread his load out a lot more. Something we were expecting to do between Jacobs and Lloyd the last 2 years, but it didn't work out that way. There's a lot riding on Lloyd right now. If we do get him back for the last 2 or 3 games, and he goes down again, we're going to be in a bad place with our RB room going forward. Probably in a position where we have no choice but to go RB on Day 2 again, which I'm sure none of us were expecting when we drafted Lloyd. [/QUOTE]
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