Packers vs Broncos Pre Game Thread

[Zartan]

Haven't seen it posted yet so here it is.

Going to be a good test for the offense as the Broncos defense is pretty good.

 

[milani]

Haven't seen it posted yet so here it is.

Going to be a good test for the offense as the Broncos defense is pretty good.

More than pretty good. Right up there with the Texans.

 

[Pkrjones]

Love has 2 seconds to get rid of the ball, hope MLF has a checkdown option on every pass play for him.

 

[Capitol 8805]

The Sunday forecast for Denver, Colorado is 55 degrees and party sunny.

 

[AmishMafia]

I was surprised the Packers are favored in this one given the Broncos record and the huplah surrounding them. Then I looked at some of their wins.

Giants 33-32
Jets 13-11
Raiders 10-7 and 24-17
Commanders 27-26

These are some crappy teams that have amassed 10 wins between the 4 of them and they are very barely beating them.

I was worried about them but have not seen them play, but the proof is in the pudding. The huplah is maybe overblown.

Packers 20 Broncos 17.

 

[El Guapo]

Winning is winning. If they hang on to barely beat the Packers, it's just one more feather in their cap.

These are two great defenses squaring off, but I think that the Packers have the better offense. It all comes down to the better game plans and who counter-attacks the best in the second half.

I predict the Packers to win but mentally have this penciled in as our last loss through our last game on Feb'8th.

 

[Poppa San]

I predict the Packers to win but mentally have this penciled in as our last loss through our last game on Feb'8th.

Are you saying they lose Feb 8th in the rematch or this is the last loss of the season?

 

[Thirteen Below]

This is probably going to be a tough game, and it could go either way. That Chicago game laid a beating on the team; a lot of key players are on the injury list today. Jacobs may have aggravated his knee injury (deep contusion), and did not practice. Golden, Wicks, Williams, Reed, Tom, Cox, Enegbare, and Bullard were all limited participation, but should be good to go in Denver. Lloyd and Van Ness were also LP, no word yet on whether they'll be ready to come back on Sunday.

There's one obscure factoid that I haven't seen anyone mention, and while I'm not sure how meaningful it is, I do find it interesting.

From what I've been able to learn, Denver has the biggest home field, home ice, and home court advantage in professional sports - the elevation. It's harder for football, basketball, and hockey teams to win there than any other major city. The Nuggets and Avalanche have the historically best home won/loss records in their leagues, and up until a few years ago, so did the Broncos. I believe they still do, and are the only NFL team that has a better home winning percentage than Green Bay. (BTW, I didn't even bother checking baseball; it's not really a factor in that sport).

Does anyone know when the Packers plan on traveling? Because they really ought to be on their way today. I remember from being a Wild fan and watching them play against the Avalanche that the conventional wisdom is that it generally takes an athlete about 3 days to acclimate to that elevation. I believe McCarthy took them out at least 2 days prior in 2015, so they could get at least one practice in at that elevation.

It didn't work; that was their last Super Bowl year, and they troutslapped us. Put up 500 yards of total offense, 340 in the air and 160 on the ground. But going out several days early is still a good practice.

 

[SudsMcBucky]

Does anyone know when the Packers plan on traveling? Because they really ought to be on their way today. I remember from being a Wild fan and watching them play against the Avalanche that the conventional wisdom is that it generally takes an athlete about 3 days to acclimate to that elevation. I believe McCarthy took them out at least 2 days prior in 2015, so they could get at least one practice in at that elevation.

They're flying out on Saturday.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Expect a white out in Denver on Sunday!

The Packers will be wearing their all white (including helmets) uniforms. Given that they are 4-0 wearing them over the past 2 seasons, I am ok with this.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[milani]

I was surprised the Packers are favored in this one given the Broncos record and the huplah surrounding them. Then I looked at some of their wins.

Giants 33-32
Jets 13-11
Raiders 10-7 and 24-17
Commanders 27-26

These are some crappy teams that have amassed 10 wins between the 4 of them and they are very barely beating them.

I was worried about them but have not seen them play, but the proof is in the pudding. The huplah is maybe overblown.

Packers 20 Broncos 17.

The betting money went that way. Not sure why. Broncos had not gotten all the attention that the other power teams of the previous season. It may change.

 

[gopkrs]

The betting money went that way. Not sure why. Broncos had not gotten all the attention that the other power teams of the previous season. It may change.

Especially since their O line is supposed to be so good

 

[Magooch]

This will be a pretty interesting one I think. I don't know, I don't want to get too cocky but I think that like Chicago they're a team whose record probably is a bit inflated relative to their actual performances.

They have a very good pass defense, but on the other hand they're a worse rush defense than Philly and not a ton better than Chicago. And they are considerably worse than the Browns defense overall. Obviously we struggled against them and lost that game, but IMO we're playing better now and it's not like we got played off the field in that one either. We were just a couple of plays away from a win there, too. So it's like....if we barely lost to a better defense when we were playing worse, we should feel decent about our odds against a worse defense when we're playing better.

And on top of that we are by FAR the best offense they will have faced this year.
We are #1 in the league by EPA per play on offense.
20-12 W vs Titans - 32nd
29-28 L vs Colts - 4th
23-20 L vs Chargers - 20th
28-3 W vs Bengals - 19th
21-17 W vs Eagles - 16th
13-11 W vs Jets - 27th
33-32 W vs Giants - 12th
44-24 W vs Cowboys - 5th
18-15 W vs Texans - 24th
10-7 W vs Raiders - 31st
22-19 W vs Chiefs - 6th
27-26 OT win vs Commanders - 14th
24-17 W vs Raiders - 31st

So I will say the same thing I have said basically every week - you don't win the game on paper, anything can happen, but we absolutely have more than enough ability/quality to win this

 

[RRyder]

Denver is a better version of Chicago.

There defense, unlike Chicago, is legitimately good and doesnt borderline require a TO make a stop and Nix hasnt taken the next step this year like alot thought he would but hes still a better QB the Caleb. Their rushing attack isnt as good as Chicago's but they have a much more balanced offense

That said they have a bad habit of going through stretches in games where they look like they should be drafting in the top 10 which is why theyve been behind big in the 4th quarter in a lot of games.

Credit to them for comming back in those games but if GB can simply take advantage of the bad stretches Denver will have I feel confidant in GBs defense being able to close it out

 

[Magooch]

Denver is a better version of Chicago.

There defense, unlike Chicago, is legitimately good and doesnt borderline require a TO make a stop and Nix hasnt taken the next step this year like alot thought he would but hes still a better QB the Caleb. Their rushing attack isnt as good as Chicago's but they have a much more balanced offense

That said they have a bad habit of going through stretches in games where they look like they should be drafting in the top 10 which is why theyve been behind big in the 4th quarter in a lot of games.

Credit to them for comming back in those games but if GB can simply take advantage of the bad stretches Denver will have I feel confidant in GBs defense being able to close it out

I would agree with that characterization for the most part. On the whole though...It's fair to say Denver are more "balanced" offensively, but TBH I think we could also say that Chicago's offense is still "better" overall.

Denver's rush offense and passing offense are much closer to each other in efficiency - Chicago's rush offense is MUCH better than their pass offense - BUT overall, Chicago's rush offense is better than Denver's rush offense AND Chicago's pass offense is *also* better than Denver's pass offense.

Another interesting tidbit to note - not sure if anyone here is familiar with "Simple Rating System," it's basically your point differential relative to your strength of schedule. Your OSRS (offensive SRS) is your points scored above/below "average" based on your SoS, and your DSRS (defensive SRS) is your points allowed, again relative to SRS...

Anyhow, our defensive SRS actually puts our defense slightly ahead of Denver's. (GB 4.0, Denver 3.8) Basically, the idea is that your defensive SRS tries to account for when teams struggle against elite offenses or dominate against bad offenses - struggling against an elite offense won't ding your rating too much, while dominating a crap offense won't boost it too much, either. Not the most scientific thing in the world but an interesting data point if nothing else

 

[milani]

This will be a pretty interesting one I think. I don't know, I don't want to get too cocky but I think that like Chicago they're a team whose record probably is a bit inflated relative to their actual performances.

They have a very good pass defense, but on the other hand they're a worse rush defense than Philly and not a ton better than Chicago. And they are considerably worse than the Browns defense overall. Obviously we struggled against them and lost that game, but IMO we're playing better now and it's not like we got played off the field in that one either. We were just a couple of plays away from a win there, too. So it's like....if we barely lost to a better defense when we were playing worse, we should feel decent about our odds against a worse defense when we're playing better.

And on top of that we are by FAR the best offense they will have faced this year.
We are #1 in the league by EPA per play on offense.
20-12 W vs Titans - 32nd
29-28 L vs Colts - 4th
23-20 L vs Chargers - 20th
28-3 W vs Bengals - 19th
21-17 W vs Eagles - 16th
13-11 W vs Jets - 27th
33-32 W vs Giants - 12th
44-24 W vs Cowboys - 5th
18-15 W vs Texans - 24th
10-7 W vs Raiders - 31st
22-19 W vs Chiefs - 6th
27-26 OT win vs Commanders - 14th
24-17 W vs Raiders - 31st

So I will say the same thing I have said basically every week - you don't win the game on paper, anything can happen, but we absolutely have more than enough ability/quality to win this

Will be more difficult. It is on the road. Defense is faster off the ball for the home team. Recall that Dallas had a great defense in 2023 and we were supposed to get smashed down there. Maybe this one will backfire like that one did.

 

[milani]

I would agree with that characterization for the most part. On the whole though...It's fair to say Denver are more "balanced" offensively, but TBH I think we could also say that Chicago's offense is still "better" overall.

Denver's rush offense and passing offense are much closer to each other in efficiency - Chicago's rush offense is MUCH better than their pass offense - BUT overall, Chicago's rush offense is better than Denver's rush offense AND Chicago's pass offense is *also* better than Denver's pass offense.

Another interesting tidbit to note - not sure if anyone here is familiar with "Simple Rating System," it's basically your point differential relative to your strength of schedule. Your OSRS (offensive SRS) is your points scored above/below "average" based on your SoS, and your DSRS (defensive SRS) is your points allowed, again relative to SRS...

Anyhow, our defensive SRS actually puts our defense slightly ahead of Denver's. (GB 4.0, Denver 3.8) Basically, the idea is that your defensive SRS tries to account for when teams struggle against elite offenses or dominate against bad offenses - struggling against an elite offense won't ding your rating too much, while dominating a crap offense won't boost it too much, either. Not the most scientific thing in the world but an interesting data point if nothing else

The Bear defense thrives on turnovers whereas the Broncos D lives by sacking you and stopping you.

 

[El Guapo]

Are you saying they lose Feb 8th in the rematch or this is the last loss of the season?

Of course not. The Broncos would be the last loss of the season

 

[Magooch]

I do have to admit the flying out on Saturday for a Sunday game in Denver has me worried. Granted I'm just about the farthest thing from an NFL athlete but I've made that elevation change quite a few times and it's always taking more than a day or two to get acclimated to it lol

 

[milani]

I do have to admit the flying out on Saturday for a Sunday game in Denver has me worried. Granted I'm just about the farthest thing from an NFL athlete but I've made that elevation change quite a few times and it's always taking more than a day or two to get acclimated to it lol

You will have better weather there in the Rockies than in the Midwest this Sunday.

 

[Poppa San]

This is probably going to be a tough game, and it could go either way. That Chicago game laid a beating on the team; a lot of key players are on the injury list today. Jacobs may have aggravated his knee injury (deep contusion), and did not practice. Golden, Wicks, Williams, Reed, Tom, Cox, Enegbare, and Bullard were all limited participation, but should be good to go in Denver. Lloyd and Van Ness were also LP, no word yet on whether they'll be ready to come back on Sunday.

There's one obscure factoid that I haven't seen anyone mention, and while I'm not sure how meaningful it is, I do find it interesting.

From what I've been able to learn, Denver has the biggest home field, home ice, and home court advantage in professional sports - the elevation. It's harder for football, basketball, and hockey teams to win there than any other major city. The Nuggets and Avalanche have the historically best home won/loss records in their leagues, and up until a few years ago, so did the Broncos. I believe they still do, and are the only NFL team that has a better home winning percentage than Green Bay. (BTW, I didn't even bother checking baseball; it's not really a factor in that sport).

Does anyone know when the Packers plan on traveling? Because they really ought to be on their way today. I remember from being a Wild fan and watching them play against the Avalanche that the conventional wisdom is that it generally takes an athlete about 3 days to acclimate to that elevation. I believe McCarthy took them out at least 2 days prior in 2015, so they could get at least one practice in at that elevation.

It didn't work; that was their last Super Bowl year, and they troutslapped us. Put up 500 yards of total offense, 340 in the air and 160 on the ground. But going out several days early is still a good practice.

There was a thing a decade or so back about athletes adding a pint of blood to their bodies to add red cells for O2. I don't recall anything more than the idea surfaced and maybe someone got caught?

 

[OldSchool101]

Hard to make a perfect prediction but I would factor Denver Strength of Schedule has been the 2nd easiest (their opponents rank 31st combined records in real time)
Also their strength of Victory is ranked 28th. Meaning they’re barely beating lesser opponents.

Now you don’t Win 11 of 13 games being bad. I have Denver ranked very similar to Chicago strength. Here we do travel, however something I’ve noticed with this current team is we play good on the road. Might have to do with the overall age of our Roster.

GB seems to be better at passing Offense while Denver is better at Rushing Offense. Similar on Defense Denver is better against the Run but The Packers are better against the Pass.

For me GB would be -2 or so on a neutral field, but playing in Denver moves the margin to even or thereabouts. This should be a good battle and it might even come down to which players are out.

 

[milani]

There was a thing a decade or so back about athletes adding a pint of blood to their bodies to add red cells for O2. I don't recall anything more than the idea surfaced and maybe someone got caught?

Very dangerous.

 

[Thirteen Below]

There was a thing a decade or so back about athletes adding a pint of blood to their bodies to add red cells for O2. I don't recall anything more than the idea surfaced and maybe someone got caught?

Oh, that's a great thought. I remember now - blood doping. It was a big deal in the Olympics some years back, when they were held at a city high in the mountains. The American cycling team got busted in the 80s, and the Russians tried to get away with it about 10 years ago.

I just looked it up, and yeah, it is illegal in the NFL. So, I guess that one's off the table.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Very dangerous.

Especially when you're putting a load on your heart with extreme exertion. Good way to blow a hose.