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Packers vs Bears: S103,E1
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<blockquote data-quote="Magooch" data-source="post: 1081777" data-attributes="member: 17987"><p>Something that makes this one particularly interesting to me is that you could really make a decent case that these two teams are in a lot of ways basically opposites of each other... </p><p></p><p>Most noticeably though in terms of the advanced metrics. By most advanced stats, Green Bay is amongst the cream of the crop, the league's elite - by many measures the Packers have an elite QB, an elite offense, an average pass defense, and an elite run defense. </p><p>Yet there are many games where they don't "feel" so elite, and arguably have a knack for letting opponents hang around and keep games closer than they "should" be.</p><p></p><p>On the other hand, by the same advanced stats, Chicago is "should" be a pretty mediocre team this year. They don't have an elite QB (Bottom-3rd), they have a slightly above-average offense, an average pass defense, and a bad run defense. But at the same time it feels like they have had quite a few games where they are "punching above their weight" or "snatching victory from the jaws of defeat". Just like it feels like we "let" opponents hang around, it feels like they have a real knack for being a team that...hangs around <img src="/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/tongue.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":p" title="Stick Out Tongue :p" data-shortname=":p" /> </p><p></p><p>The Bears offense is one of the best at generating big plays; the Packers defense is one of the best at limiting big plays. The Bears have more takeaways than anyone; the Packers have less giveaways than anyone, too. The Bears have an elite rushing attack; the Packers have an elite rush defense. The Bears are one of the best at chewing up the clock on offense; the Packers are one of the best at limiting teams per-play production. </p><p></p><p>Furthermore, for instance... on the season thus far we have scored 19 less points than they have... but we have allowed 81 *less* points against us. We have a point differential of +68, which is 8th in the league. Chicago has a point differential of just +6, which is 16th. Yet they are a half game ahead of us. </p><p></p><p>In short, if it were played on paper, we should win and run away with it. But, as we all know, that is not often the case...</p><p></p><p>I will say, the betting lines have us as roughly touchdown favorites (-6.5). In our last 20 games at Lambeau as 6pt favorites (or better), we are 16-4 overall, and 12-8 in terms of the spread...</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Magooch, post: 1081777, member: 17987"] Something that makes this one particularly interesting to me is that you could really make a decent case that these two teams are in a lot of ways basically opposites of each other... Most noticeably though in terms of the advanced metrics. By most advanced stats, Green Bay is amongst the cream of the crop, the league's elite - by many measures the Packers have an elite QB, an elite offense, an average pass defense, and an elite run defense. Yet there are many games where they don't "feel" so elite, and arguably have a knack for letting opponents hang around and keep games closer than they "should" be. On the other hand, by the same advanced stats, Chicago is "should" be a pretty mediocre team this year. They don't have an elite QB (Bottom-3rd), they have a slightly above-average offense, an average pass defense, and a bad run defense. But at the same time it feels like they have had quite a few games where they are "punching above their weight" or "snatching victory from the jaws of defeat". Just like it feels like we "let" opponents hang around, it feels like they have a real knack for being a team that...hangs around :P The Bears offense is one of the best at generating big plays; the Packers defense is one of the best at limiting big plays. The Bears have more takeaways than anyone; the Packers have less giveaways than anyone, too. The Bears have an elite rushing attack; the Packers have an elite rush defense. The Bears are one of the best at chewing up the clock on offense; the Packers are one of the best at limiting teams per-play production. Furthermore, for instance... on the season thus far we have scored 19 less points than they have... but we have allowed 81 *less* points against us. We have a point differential of +68, which is 8th in the league. Chicago has a point differential of just +6, which is 16th. Yet they are a half game ahead of us. In short, if it were played on paper, we should win and run away with it. But, as we all know, that is not often the case... I will say, the betting lines have us as roughly touchdown favorites (-6.5). In our last 20 games at Lambeau as 6pt favorites (or better), we are 16-4 overall, and 12-8 in terms of the spread... [/QUOTE]
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