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Packers vs Bears: S103,E1
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<blockquote data-quote="Magooch" data-source="post: 1081554" data-attributes="member: 17987"><p>Overall, we are #1 in the league right now in total EPA per play on offense. Chicago is #9.</p><p>We are #3 in EPA-success rate (plays with a positive EPA). Chicago #13</p><p>We are #1 in passing EPA; Chicago is #14</p><p>We are #4 in passing success rate; Chicago is #21</p><p>Chicago is #4 in rush EPA while we are #16</p><p>They are also #3 in rush success rate; we are closer but still behind at #7</p><p>In terms of total expected points contribution by the offense, we are #5 while Chicago is #10.</p><p></p><p>On the other side, we are #13 in defensive EPA per play while Chicago is #19</p><p>We are #9 in overall defensive EPA-success rate, Chicago is #25</p><p>Very close in defensive passing EPA. We are #17 and Chicago is #18</p><p>Similar to the overall, we are #9 in pass defense success rate and Chicago is #23</p><p>We are #6 in rush EPA; Chicago is #21</p><p>Our defense is #10 in expected points at roughly -21. Chicago's is #23 at -60. (That is indeed with all turnovers accounted for)</p><p>And finally, we are #12 in rush defense success rate while Chicago is #28.</p><p></p><p>When it comes to quarterbacks there's no contest. Love is THE #1 QB in the league in EPA per play. Caleb is 23rd.</p><p>Love is 5th in total QB success rate. Caleb is #27.</p><p>Love is #3 in CPOE... Caleb is #31.</p><p>Both QBs have an identical depth of target/attempted air yards.</p><p></p><p>Like just about every game we've had this year, this is one that we SHOULD be able to win. Whether or not that actually happens, who knows....</p><p></p><p>To make it ultra-simple...</p><p>If we play at our best and Chicago plays at their best... IMO, we win</p><p>If we play at our best and Chicago plays at their worst... we win, of course</p><p>If we play at our worst and Chicago plays at their worst... I don't know. That one's kind of a toss-up to me. Based on our worst performances this year, I would still give us the edge, Chicago has shown a lower "floor".</p><p>If we play at our worst and Chicago plays at their best... they win.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Magooch, post: 1081554, member: 17987"] Overall, we are #1 in the league right now in total EPA per play on offense. Chicago is #9. We are #3 in EPA-success rate (plays with a positive EPA). Chicago #13 We are #1 in passing EPA; Chicago is #14 We are #4 in passing success rate; Chicago is #21 Chicago is #4 in rush EPA while we are #16 They are also #3 in rush success rate; we are closer but still behind at #7 In terms of total expected points contribution by the offense, we are #5 while Chicago is #10. On the other side, we are #13 in defensive EPA per play while Chicago is #19 We are #9 in overall defensive EPA-success rate, Chicago is #25 Very close in defensive passing EPA. We are #17 and Chicago is #18 Similar to the overall, we are #9 in pass defense success rate and Chicago is #23 We are #6 in rush EPA; Chicago is #21 Our defense is #10 in expected points at roughly -21. Chicago's is #23 at -60. (That is indeed with all turnovers accounted for) And finally, we are #12 in rush defense success rate while Chicago is #28. When it comes to quarterbacks there's no contest. Love is THE #1 QB in the league in EPA per play. Caleb is 23rd. Love is 5th in total QB success rate. Caleb is #27. Love is #3 in CPOE... Caleb is #31. Both QBs have an identical depth of target/attempted air yards. Like just about every game we've had this year, this is one that we SHOULD be able to win. Whether or not that actually happens, who knows.... To make it ultra-simple... If we play at our best and Chicago plays at their best... IMO, we win If we play at our best and Chicago plays at their worst... we win, of course If we play at our worst and Chicago plays at their worst... I don't know. That one's kind of a toss-up to me. Based on our worst performances this year, I would still give us the edge, Chicago has shown a lower "floor". If we play at our worst and Chicago plays at their best... they win. [/QUOTE]
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Packers vs Bears: S103,E1
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