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Packers 1st round selection, #12 overall: Rashan Gary, DE
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<blockquote data-quote="greengold" data-source="post: 842649" data-attributes="member: 14223"><p>I get what you are saying, Sunshine, but, I feel the subject has been beaten to death. No? I meant no harm with what I said.</p><p></p><p>Look, I freaked out initially when he was drafted at #12, mostly because I had never considered him a possibility. Stepping back a bit, I realized how well Gutekunst and his staff have done in procuring new talent, and feel they've earned <strong>my</strong> trust with their selections. If they had Gary as the very top player on their board, then I'm glad they got him.</p><p></p><p>You do know his pressure on Trubisky was part of the reason for Amos' INT, I'm sure. Pretty significant contribution in one of his 6 snaps. That was BIG pressure. He did have 2 on 6 snaps.</p><p></p><p>-----</p><p></p><p>XPack, first two picks in the last 3 drafts ought to do it?</p><p></p><p>King, Jones, Alexander, Jackson, Gary, Savage... Seems there alone with that small sample is a pretty good set of players. Jones didn't work out. Alexander and Savage look like rockstars. King is incredible when healthy - shut down CB who may surprise many this season. Jackson was considered a R1 pick and a steal in R2 - though he has yet to produce at the level we want, he's got tremendous ball skills and instincts to create TOs. He's been hampered by injury and is learning press coverage at the NFL level after spending his career at Iowa in zone. Trust? I see ONE miss, for an 84% success rate <strong>thus far (neither King, Jackson, nor Gary have failed to this point)</strong>. The NFL is littered with misses, like, Josh Jones level misses in the first two selections.</p><p></p><p>Check this out on draft success rates... <a href="https://theriotreport.com/scout-camp-2018-about-the-author/" target="_blank">https://theriotreport.com/scout-camp-2018-about-the-author/</a></p><p></p><p>Figure Pro Football reference uses an <strong>Approximate Value stat where 5 or above is the definition of a solid first round pick, where AV 5 = a decent but unspectacular season in the NFL.</strong> Here are numbers they compiled for drafts since 2011:</p><p></p><p>Pick area 1-5 = 77.1% success rate</p><p>Pick area 6-10 = 51.4% success rate</p><p>Pick area 11-15 = 57.1% success rate</p><p>Pick area 16-20 = 51.4% success rate</p><p>Pick area 21-32 = 47.0% success rate</p><p></p><p>Compare that with what the Packers have done with the first two picks in the last 3 drafts, and I'd say Gutekunst and his staff have done well, knowing Gutekunst worked under Ted 2017.</p><p></p><p>Also, here is a great abstract study on drafts "Success or Bust?" <a href="https://fisherpub.sjfc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1064&context=sport_undergrad" target="_blank">https://fisherpub.sjfc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1064&context=sport_undergrad</a></p><p></p><p>Pro Football Reference put out a metric to measure draft success of players drafted over the last 20 years, all rounds:</p><p>16.7% didn't play for the team that drafted them</p><p>37% were considered worthless</p><p>15.3% were considered poor</p><p>10.5% were considered average</p><p>6.9% were considered great</p><p>1% were considered legendary</p><p></p><p>If you want a really good mind melt on drafting success, here you go, but, know you were warned...</p><p></p><p><a href="https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/" target="_blank">https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/</a></p><p></p><p>Again, let's see what Rashan does, as well as the rest of them.</p><p></p><p>So, back to Gary....</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="greengold, post: 842649, member: 14223"] I get what you are saying, Sunshine, but, I feel the subject has been beaten to death. No? I meant no harm with what I said. Look, I freaked out initially when he was drafted at #12, mostly because I had never considered him a possibility. Stepping back a bit, I realized how well Gutekunst and his staff have done in procuring new talent, and feel they've earned [B]my[/B] trust with their selections. If they had Gary as the very top player on their board, then I'm glad they got him. You do know his pressure on Trubisky was part of the reason for Amos' INT, I'm sure. Pretty significant contribution in one of his 6 snaps. That was BIG pressure. He did have 2 on 6 snaps. ----- XPack, first two picks in the last 3 drafts ought to do it? King, Jones, Alexander, Jackson, Gary, Savage... Seems there alone with that small sample is a pretty good set of players. Jones didn't work out. Alexander and Savage look like rockstars. King is incredible when healthy - shut down CB who may surprise many this season. Jackson was considered a R1 pick and a steal in R2 - though he has yet to produce at the level we want, he's got tremendous ball skills and instincts to create TOs. He's been hampered by injury and is learning press coverage at the NFL level after spending his career at Iowa in zone. Trust? I see ONE miss, for an 84% success rate [B]thus far (neither King, Jackson, nor Gary have failed to this point)[/B]. The NFL is littered with misses, like, Josh Jones level misses in the first two selections. Check this out on draft success rates... [URL]https://theriotreport.com/scout-camp-2018-about-the-author/[/URL] Figure Pro Football reference uses an [B]Approximate Value stat where 5 or above is the definition of a solid first round pick, where AV 5 = a decent but unspectacular season in the NFL.[/B] Here are numbers they compiled for drafts since 2011: Pick area 1-5 = 77.1% success rate Pick area 6-10 = 51.4% success rate Pick area 11-15 = 57.1% success rate Pick area 16-20 = 51.4% success rate Pick area 21-32 = 47.0% success rate Compare that with what the Packers have done with the first two picks in the last 3 drafts, and I'd say Gutekunst and his staff have done well, knowing Gutekunst worked under Ted 2017. Also, here is a great abstract study on drafts "Success or Bust?" [URL]https://fisherpub.sjfc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1064&context=sport_undergrad[/URL] Pro Football Reference put out a metric to measure draft success of players drafted over the last 20 years, all rounds: 16.7% didn't play for the team that drafted them 37% were considered worthless 15.3% were considered poor 10.5% were considered average 6.9% were considered great 1% were considered legendary If you want a really good mind melt on drafting success, here you go, but, know you were warned... [URL]https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/[/URL] Again, let's see what Rashan does, as well as the rest of them. So, back to Gary.... [/QUOTE]
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Packers 1st round selection, #12 overall: Rashan Gary, DE
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