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NFL Playoffs Prediction Contest - Super Bowl Week!
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<blockquote data-quote="Mondio" data-source="post: 948487" data-attributes="member: 10441"><p>So not a big margin and unless that means those that get the ball first score and win on that first possession it might not mean anything.</p><p></p><p>The playoff pool is too small to really conclude anything. It's 7 out of 11 scored 1st drive TD's. Give me 50 games and maybe it starts to become more relevant and even more so after 100.</p><p></p><p>I can't find anything either, but I haven't looked too ******* 1st drive game enders. I'd bet it's not a lot, or they'd be hammering on it. Like most articles i've found want to focus on the 91% coin toss winners winning the game in the playoffs. It is significant to note, that in that small sample size only 7 were won on the first drive, so that's just above 60%, but they want to leave you with the impression it's above 90 so they focus on that. 2 more games on the other side would bring it down to just above 50%. when 2 teams are playing you have a 50/50 chance of winning when a winner must be declared so I wouldn't put anything near 50% on the side of the coin toss deciding the outcome. When so few games can skew the stats so much, it's not really fair to draw conclusions.</p><p></p><p>But in the regular season there have been well over 100 games and it's hardly a difference, and they don't tell you what percentage is a 1st drive win. Even if we assume all 52% were where the other team never touched the ball, it's not a significant difference.</p><p></p><p>I can easily conclude that coin toss winners win slightly more because they get an extra possession. Even if you give the other team one, the other is still getting another one. You can decide it by coin toss, first points of game scored, most turnovers caused, last points scored, prettiest head coach, home team, away team etc, but at some point you're going to decide who is getting the ball first and many times, they won't score, the other won't score and then the team who got it first gets it again and we're right back where we started, well the other team didn't get another chance.</p><p></p><p>Or they get rid of kick offs completely, but then i'm not in favor of that. Football is special teams too. Now you're handicapping teams that have put resources in time, money, players and coaches to have a strong kick off/return and punt teams and removing a liability for teams that haven't made that commitment. I like football and I want to see complete teams rewarded.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Mondio, post: 948487, member: 10441"] So not a big margin and unless that means those that get the ball first score and win on that first possession it might not mean anything. The playoff pool is too small to really conclude anything. It's 7 out of 11 scored 1st drive TD's. Give me 50 games and maybe it starts to become more relevant and even more so after 100. I can't find anything either, but I haven't looked too ******* 1st drive game enders. I'd bet it's not a lot, or they'd be hammering on it. Like most articles i've found want to focus on the 91% coin toss winners winning the game in the playoffs. It is significant to note, that in that small sample size only 7 were won on the first drive, so that's just above 60%, but they want to leave you with the impression it's above 90 so they focus on that. 2 more games on the other side would bring it down to just above 50%. when 2 teams are playing you have a 50/50 chance of winning when a winner must be declared so I wouldn't put anything near 50% on the side of the coin toss deciding the outcome. When so few games can skew the stats so much, it's not really fair to draw conclusions. But in the regular season there have been well over 100 games and it's hardly a difference, and they don't tell you what percentage is a 1st drive win. Even if we assume all 52% were where the other team never touched the ball, it's not a significant difference. I can easily conclude that coin toss winners win slightly more because they get an extra possession. Even if you give the other team one, the other is still getting another one. You can decide it by coin toss, first points of game scored, most turnovers caused, last points scored, prettiest head coach, home team, away team etc, but at some point you're going to decide who is getting the ball first and many times, they won't score, the other won't score and then the team who got it first gets it again and we're right back where we started, well the other team didn't get another chance. Or they get rid of kick offs completely, but then i'm not in favor of that. Football is special teams too. Now you're handicapping teams that have put resources in time, money, players and coaches to have a strong kick off/return and punt teams and removing a liability for teams that haven't made that commitment. I like football and I want to see complete teams rewarded. [/QUOTE]
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