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<blockquote data-quote="PackAttack12" data-source="post: 855499" data-attributes="member: 11933"><p>Well lets consider what it has taken for that to occur, and what has to continue to happen for it to occur. The Packers have won three straight, and will have to win another two games, for a total of a 5 game winning streak to finish the season. The 49ers have lost 2 of its last 3 (including one to a below .500 team), and will have to lose another game after starting 10-1. The Seahawks have had to drop a game, and will have to proceed to lose another game after starting the season with just 1 loss. The Vikings were in a better position to win the division at that point as well, which factors into the probability, because the Packers obviously have to win the division to get the 1st seed.</p><p></p><p>I'm not saying that the playoff machine that I use is a fool proof, end all be all system to measure true probabilities. But it is advanced enough to draw a picture. The chances of the Packers getting the #1 overall seed a few weeks ago was very slim, and a certain series of events have increased those odds, but it's still a better probability than not of the Packers not getting the #1 seed even after what all has transpired.</p><p></p><p>Take into account what has happened, along with the Packers having to win at Minnesota (along with week 17 at Detroit). Additionally, we now need another loss by both the 49ers and the Seahawks. But it's even more complicated than that, given that the two of them play each other in week 17. So if the 49ers lose next week and the Seahawks win, we then have to hope for the 49ers to come back and beat the Seahawks in week 17. And vice versa. If the Seahawks lose and the 49ers win, we have to hope for the Seahawks to beat the 49ers in week 17.</p><p></p><p>The odds of all of that happening in and of itself, no matter WHO you ask just off the top of their head would probably say has less than 1/3 or 1/4 of a chance of happening, given that the Packers will be underdogs next week, and both Seattle and San Fran will be favorites. You definitely wouldn't give it an above 50% chance to happen.</p><p></p><p>I would venture to say that a playoff machine that does tens of thousands of simulations to formulate their percentages is a lot more accurate than either of us throwing darts.</p><p></p><p>A 5% chance is still a chance. Just because it might happen, doesn't mean it wasn't a massive long shot a few weeks ago.</p><p></p><p>So again, whether you want to quibble over whether there's actually some dead set probability out there, the simulations they do absolutely draw a picture of a ball park figure. If you can't at least acknowledge that, I'm not sure that I can help you.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="PackAttack12, post: 855499, member: 11933"] Well lets consider what it has taken for that to occur, and what has to continue to happen for it to occur. The Packers have won three straight, and will have to win another two games, for a total of a 5 game winning streak to finish the season. The 49ers have lost 2 of its last 3 (including one to a below .500 team), and will have to lose another game after starting 10-1. The Seahawks have had to drop a game, and will have to proceed to lose another game after starting the season with just 1 loss. The Vikings were in a better position to win the division at that point as well, which factors into the probability, because the Packers obviously have to win the division to get the 1st seed. I'm not saying that the playoff machine that I use is a fool proof, end all be all system to measure true probabilities. But it is advanced enough to draw a picture. The chances of the Packers getting the #1 overall seed a few weeks ago was very slim, and a certain series of events have increased those odds, but it's still a better probability than not of the Packers not getting the #1 seed even after what all has transpired. Take into account what has happened, along with the Packers having to win at Minnesota (along with week 17 at Detroit). Additionally, we now need another loss by both the 49ers and the Seahawks. But it's even more complicated than that, given that the two of them play each other in week 17. So if the 49ers lose next week and the Seahawks win, we then have to hope for the 49ers to come back and beat the Seahawks in week 17. And vice versa. If the Seahawks lose and the 49ers win, we have to hope for the Seahawks to beat the 49ers in week 17. The odds of all of that happening in and of itself, no matter WHO you ask just off the top of their head would probably say has less than 1/3 or 1/4 of a chance of happening, given that the Packers will be underdogs next week, and both Seattle and San Fran will be favorites. You definitely wouldn't give it an above 50% chance to happen. I would venture to say that a playoff machine that does tens of thousands of simulations to formulate their percentages is a lot more accurate than either of us throwing darts. A 5% chance is still a chance. Just because it might happen, doesn't mean it wasn't a massive long shot a few weeks ago. So again, whether you want to quibble over whether there's actually some dead set probability out there, the simulations they do absolutely draw a picture of a ball park figure. If you can't at least acknowledge that, I'm not sure that I can help you. [/QUOTE]
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