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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 781190"><p>A few words about Tod Gurley:</p><p></p><p>Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to pay top fantasy dollars for this guy.</p><p></p><p>Gurley had 321 touches in 2016 and 343 touches in 2017. This is a red flag. Even elite running backs who get to around 350 touches (with 343 being close enough for government work) see fall-offs, often sharp ones, in the following season with rare exceptions. This risk is compounded by the $21 million signing bonus payday.</p><p></p><p>Adrian Peterson was clearly an exception to the rule, a generational player. Maybe multi-generational. Can anybody think of another elite RB who built his way up to a high touch season then followed that up with another elite season? They are rare.</p><p></p><p>Lesean McCoy is a noted high touch guy with durability, longevity and high productivity. His touches in his first 3 seasons were 195, 285, and 321 in that order. Year 4? Significant fall off with 4 missed games on 254 touches, with a bounce back in year 5:</p><p></p><p><a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McCoLe01.htm" target="_blank">https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McCoLe01.htm</a></p><p></p><p>How about Le'Veon Bell?</p><p></p><p>His touches in his first two seasons were 289 and 373 in that order. In year 3 he missed 10 games. Then he bounced back with highly productive years 4 and 5 with 336 touches in 2016 and a whomping 406 touches last season. Was the injury in year 3 a fluke? Perhaps the accumulated beatings over a season carry over to the next season making a RB suseptible to injury.</p><p></p><p>Or maybe Bell is the successor to Peterson as a decade-long high touch iron man. I wouldn't bet on it. The history of high touch running backs is pretty compelling. In Bell's case the issue is compounded by him being unhappy playing on the franchise tag. Like Gurley, I would not put big fantasy bucks on this guy coming off that 406 touch season.</p><p></p><p>How about Elliott? 354 touches as a rookie; missed 6 games in his second year with 260 touches. If the pattern holds, he should bounce back.</p><p></p><p>DeMarco Murray? He had a light-to-reasonable work load his first three seasons then had a huge year 4 on a ridiculous 436 touches. His drop off at Philly in year 5 with a bounce back in year 6 with Tennessee follows the pattern. 7 seasons in he's about worn out.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 781190"] A few words about Tod Gurley: Mamas, don't let your babies grow up to pay top fantasy dollars for this guy. Gurley had 321 touches in 2016 and 343 touches in 2017. This is a red flag. Even elite running backs who get to around 350 touches (with 343 being close enough for government work) see fall-offs, often sharp ones, in the following season with rare exceptions. This risk is compounded by the $21 million signing bonus payday. Adrian Peterson was clearly an exception to the rule, a generational player. Maybe multi-generational. Can anybody think of another elite RB who built his way up to a high touch season then followed that up with another elite season? They are rare. Lesean McCoy is a noted high touch guy with durability, longevity and high productivity. His touches in his first 3 seasons were 195, 285, and 321 in that order. Year 4? Significant fall off with 4 missed games on 254 touches, with a bounce back in year 5: [URL]https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McCoLe01.htm[/URL] How about Le'Veon Bell? His touches in his first two seasons were 289 and 373 in that order. In year 3 he missed 10 games. Then he bounced back with highly productive years 4 and 5 with 336 touches in 2016 and a whomping 406 touches last season. Was the injury in year 3 a fluke? Perhaps the accumulated beatings over a season carry over to the next season making a RB suseptible to injury. Or maybe Bell is the successor to Peterson as a decade-long high touch iron man. I wouldn't bet on it. The history of high touch running backs is pretty compelling. In Bell's case the issue is compounded by him being unhappy playing on the franchise tag. Like Gurley, I would not put big fantasy bucks on this guy coming off that 406 touch season. How about Elliott? 354 touches as a rookie; missed 6 games in his second year with 260 touches. If the pattern holds, he should bounce back. DeMarco Murray? He had a light-to-reasonable work load his first three seasons then had a huge year 4 on a ridiculous 436 touches. His drop off at Philly in year 5 with a bounce back in year 6 with Tennessee follows the pattern. 7 seasons in he's about worn out. [/QUOTE]
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