Keep Pettine if the D doesn't improve?

[Fat Dogs]

1: We got beat.
2: We won both times. Cook got one big run in the first game, but we otherwise controlled them. Almost a perfect 50/50 split.
3: I'm more worried about Wilson than their run game. Threw almost 52% of the time
4: Threw 57% of the time
5: Threw 57% of the time

The 49ers (51% run) and Ravens (57% run) are the oddballs the Vikings their own special kind of oddball. The rest of the league passes more than they throw.

Ratios from here: https://fftoday.com/stats/19_run_pass_ratios.html

Fair enough. Truth is that our dime D did what it needed to do to defend the pass Without getting completely torched by the run for most of the year. Teams that run 21 personnel is our kryptonite. We saw that twice last season with the 49ers and the Vikings had a 197 rushing yards in the first game and Dalvin Cook didn’t play in the second. I’d say not to change a thing if these teams weren’t our two biggest obstacles to make the super bowl.

 

[gopkrs]

FWIW, the top four passing teams in the league missed the playoffs and the top four rushing teams made the playoffs, if I recall correctly.
So if you want to go anywhere in the playoffs you either stop the run or score every time you touch the ball.

Is this right? I sure would have thought KC was a passing team. And New Orleans.

 

[mradtke66]

the Vikings had a 197 rushing yards in the first game

The problem with this is that Cook got most of his yards one play (almost 1/2-- 75 of 154 yards) on a single carry. Should we discount those yards entirely, no. However, I'm not sure a single carry is good representative of our efforts.

 

[gopkrs]

The problem with this is that Cook got most of his yards one play (almost 1/2-- 75 of 154 yards) on a single carry. Should we discount those yards entirely, no. However, I'm not sure a single carry is good representative of our efforts.

I agree except that 75 yards is still pretty healthy. And then you break one...

 

[mradtke66]

I agree except that 75 yards is still pretty healthy. And then you break one...

True, but excluding the 75 long run, Cook averaged 4.1 per carry.

Is that a great job by the defense? No.

Is that a great job by the offense? No.

 

[Fat Dogs]

True, but excluding the 75 long run, Cook averaged 4.1 per carry.

Is that a great job by the defense? No.

Is that a great job by the offense? No.

Go back and watch play. It’s run out of the exact formation that this conversation is about.

 

[gopkrs]

True, but excluding the 75 long run, Cook averaged 4.1 per carry.

Is that a great job by the defense? No.

Is that a great job by the offense? No.

So do you want to disregard the long runs Barry Sanders and all the greats have made? When you are running that well you are bound to break one. Especially that guy. Since it imho was not a fluke. You have to count it.

 

[Packer Fan in SD]

No, but it can be modified when playing against run heavy teams. We don’t have a choice. IMO we didn’t add any significant players and they didn’t lose

This is why they play the game. The 9’ers lost Sanders to free agency and today Deebo announced he broke his foot, will need surgery and will be out up to 8-10 weeks. Of no practice too. They have now been hit at wr for their number 2 and 3 receivers from last year. Injuries hit hard sometimes.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I want to see what Bolton does. He showed potential imho

Bolton didn't play a single snap in 2019 as he was placed on injured reserve before the start of the season.

No, but it can be modified when playing against run heavy teams. Besides, do you not think our offensive draft was influenced by that loss?

Once again, there's no doubt the Packers have to significantly improve when facing a team like the Niners but that doesn't change that they shouldn't alter their scheme compeltely based on matching up terribly with a single opponent.

I have been pretty adamant about not liking this year's draft.

FWIW, the top four passing teams in the league missed the playoffs and the top four rushing teams made the playoffs, if I recall correctly.

Passing yards is a terrible metric to measure a team's success.

 

[gopkrs]

I know Bolton was hurt all year. There was just something about him that I liked in pre-season. I think he came from a pretty big college. Like I said, I am interested in seeing him play. I don't have any skin in this process.

 

[mradtke66]

So do you want to disregard the long runs Barry Sanders and all the greats have made? When you are running that well you are bound to break one. Especially that guy. Since it imho was not a fluke. You have to count it.

it’s a tricky situation. The reason I propose excluding it is because it was an outlier.

should it be excluded entirely? No. Should there be a discussion about it? Yes.

consider an absurd situation. An opposing running back has gained a total of 1 yards after 19 carries. 18 for 0, 1 for 1 yard.

On his 20th carry, the strong safety slips and he reels off a 99 yard run from his own 1.

just like that, he’s gotten 100 yards and a 5ypc average.

How would you rate the run defense on the day?

Is what Cook did that out of the ordinary? Certainly not as my extreme example, but context and situation matters.

or what if the inverse? A lucky early 99 yard run and 0 the rest of the day?

Im far more concerned about what the 9ers did. There was no fluke or lucky play skewing the average—they chunked yards all day.

I’m still not entirely sure how they did it or what vulnerability they exploited. I’ve read that they went after the Smith brothers on the edges. I also say Pettine play base more than the he had the whole year.

 

[gopkrs]

it’s a tricky situation. The reason I propose excluding it is because it was an outlier.

should it be excluded entirely? No. Should there be a discussion about it? Yes.

consider an absurd situation. An opposing running back has gained a total of 1 yards after 19 carries. 18 for 0, 1 for 1 yard.

On his 20th carry, the strong safety slips and he reels off a 99 yard run from his own 1.

just like that, he’s gotten 100 yards and a 5ypc average.

How would you rate the run defense on the day?

Is what Cook did that out of the ordinary? Certainly not as my extreme example, but context and situation matters.

or what if the inverse? A lucky early 99 yard run and 0 the rest of the day?

Im far more concerned about what the 9ers did. There was no fluke or lucky play skewing the average—they chunked yards all day.

I’m still not entirely sure how they did it or what vulnerability they exploited. I’ve read that they went after the Smith brothers on the edges. I also say Pettine play base more than the he had the whole year.

As for SF...I believe they exploited our D line and with it Martinez and anything else we had at linebacker. Probably the Smith bros were overly concerned about SF just tearing through the middle that they played loose for containment. Just a bad situation.

 

[mradtke66]

As for SF...I believe they exploited our D line and with it Martinez and anything else we had at linebacker. Probably the Smith bros were overly concerned about SF just tearing through the middle that they played loose for containment. Just a bad situation.

I can't say that you're right or wrong. I haven't had the heart to go back and watch the game that closely.

The confusion is that on run downs, 3-4 OLBs are basically defensive linemen. On such plays, it turns into a 5-2. (Same thing in a 4-3 under, with the SOLB lining up on the line of scrimmage.)

I'm basing the idea that SF picked on our OLBs based on the reporting of others. Assuming it's true, I don't know if they did so by running at them, exploiting the gaps that they would typically defend, forcing them to make a choice, etc.

 

[Fat Dogs]

it’s a tricky situation. The reason I propose excluding it is because it was an outlier.

should it be excluded entirely? No. Should there be a discussion about it? Yes.

consider an absurd situation. An opposing running back has gained a total of 1 yards after 19 carries. 18 for 0, 1 for 1 yard.

On his 20th carry, the strong safety slips and he reels off a 99 yard run from his own 1.

just like that, he’s gotten 100 yards and a 5ypc average.

How would you rate the run defense on the day?

Is what Cook did that out of the ordinary? Certainly not as my extreme example, but context and situation matters.

or what if the inverse? A lucky early 99 yard run and 0 the rest of the day?

Im far more concerned about what the 9ers did. There was no fluke or lucky play skewing the average—they chunked yards all day.

I’m still not entirely sure how they did it or what vulnerability they exploited. I’ve read that they went after the Smith brothers on the edges. I also say Pettine play base more than the he had the whole year.

It’s simple. You include the 75 yard run because it’s the exact 21 personnel that both the 49ers and Vikings use that the packers cannot defend. NFL teams don’t use fullbacks anymore because it is a passing league and they want more speed on the field. The few teams that still use these big packages completely modified the Position into a do it all H-back. The 49ers used Kyle Juszczyk, and George Kittle To confuse the Packers D. They lined them up everywhere before every single play and the defense had no idea what the formation looked like until the ball was snapped. Packers lineman didn’t know weather they were getting blocked by Juszczyk, Kittle or a tackle until it was to late. Pettine needs to figure this out. Being a good defense against the pass is important but allowing a team to go an hour and a half between pass attempts is absurd.

 

[Fat Dogs]

This is why they play the game. The 9’ers lost Sanders to free agency and today Deebo announced he broke his foot, will need surgery and will be out up to 8-10 weeks. Of no practice too. They have now been hit at wr for their number 2 and 3 receivers from last year. Injuries hit hard sometimes.

This is why they play the game. The 9’ers lost Sanders to free agency and today Deebo announced he broke his foot, will need surgery and will be out up to 8-10 weeks. Of no practice too. They have now been hit at wr for their number 2 and 3 receivers from last year. Injuries hit hard sometimes.

It is a long season and much can happen. I don’t root for any serious injuries but I won’t lose much sleep if a couple of 49ers break a foot

 

[jon]

A rainy afternoon so I watched the Browns first two games from last season, the two Kirskey played in before getting hurt. In game one-- a loss to theTitans-- he was a non-entity. In game two-- a win over the Jets-- he made a tackle for loss but was otherwise a non-factor. He was single blocked on every play in both games and got off none that I could see. Not once.

Something has to be done to firm up the defense against the run.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

You include the 75 yard run because it’s the exact 21 personnel that both the 49ers and Vikings use that the packers cannot defend.

Of course the 75 yard run by Cook needs to be considered when talking about the Packers run defense vs. the Vikings but on the other hand you need to realize that play was an extreme outlier as Minnesota didn't have another rush for more than 14 yards in both games last season.

 

[Fat Dogs]

A rainy afternoon so I watched the Browns first two games from last season, the two Kirskey played in before getting hurt. In game one-- a loss to theTitans-- he was a non-entity. In game two-- a win over the Jets-- he made a tackle for loss but was otherwise a non-factor. He was single blocked on every play in both games and got off none that I could see. Not once.

Something has to be done to firm up the defense against the run.

Eh I don’t get caught up in small samples. The guy is a proven vet and is always around the ball (when healthy.) He had 11 tackles with 2 TFL those two games so he’s making an impact even if he seems like a non factor. I think he’s going to be great for this D but your right. I’m really worried about not getting that big run stuffing D tackle

 

[Fat Dogs]

Of course the 75 yard run by Cook needs to be considered when talking about the Packers run defense vs. the Vikings but on the other hand you need to realize that play was an extreme outlier as Minnesota didn't have another rush for more than 14 yards in both games last season.

I don’t think you understand what I’m saying. The run is an outlier if the Vikings ran 21 personnel the whole game and we shut it down except for one big run. They only use that big package 8% of the time which equates to Less than 5 plays a game. One 75 yard run in 5 plays tells me that we have no answer for this. 49ers run their big personnel (fullback/H-back + tight end) 48 % of the time.

 

[gopkrs]

I can't say that you're right or wrong. I haven't had the heart to go back and watch the game that closely.

The confusion is that on run downs, 3-4 OLBs are basically defensive linemen. On such plays, it turns into a 5-2. (Same thing in a 4-3 under, with the SOLB lining up on the line of scrimmage.)

I'm basing the idea that SF picked on our OLBs based on the reporting of others. Assuming it's true, I don't know if they did so by running at them, exploiting the gaps that they would typically defend, forcing them to make a choice, etc.

LOL I don't want to watch that either.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Eh I don’t get caught up in small samples. The guy is a proven vet and is always around the ball (when healthy.) He had 11 tackles with 2 TFL those two games so he’s making an impact even if he seems like a non factor. I think he’s going to be great for this D but your right. I’m really worried about not getting that big run stuffing D tackle

Kirksey doesn't seem to be a significant upgrade over Martinez and hasn't been able to stay healthy on top of it.

Regarding his impact in two games with the Browns last season, according to several sources he was the one responsible for covering Henry on his 75 yard touchdown reception in week 1.

I don’t think you understand what I’m saying. The run is an outlier if the Vikings ran 21 personnel the whole game and we shut it down except for one big run. They only use that big package 8% of the time which equates to Less than 5 plays a game. One 75 yard run in 5 plays tells me that we have no answer for this. 49ers run their big personnel (fullback/H-back + tight end) 48 % of the time.

If that numbers are accurate I agree the touchdown by Cook shouldn't be considered an outlier.

 

[Fat Dogs]

Kirksey doesn't seem to be a significant upgrade over Martinez and hasn't been able to stay healthy on top of it.

Regarding his impact in two games with the Browns last season, according to several sources he was the one responsible for covering Henry on his 75 yard touchdown reception in week 1.



If that numbers are accurate I agree the touchdown by Cook shouldn't be considered an outlier.

I agree that Martinez would have been a better choice but only because of the durability issues. I’d choose Kirksey any day of the week over Blake when both healthy. The Giants over paid and we took a gamble. I just watched that play. It was a screen play and Kirksey was the only Browns player to read and react. He immediately diagnosed the play and came down field. Yes, he got leveled but that TD was inevitable. He was surrounded by 6 white jerseys.

 

[gopkrs]

Kirksey doesn't seem to be a significant upgrade over Martinez and hasn't been able to stay healthy on top of it.

Regarding his impact in two games with the Browns last season, according to several sources he was the one responsible for covering Henry on his 75 yard touchdown reception in week 1.

I thought Martinez was a liability. He only "looked" good. And so I am happy going in another direction. Any direction.

 

[OldSchool101]

Regarding his impact in two games with the Browns last season, according to several sources he was the one responsible for covering Henry on his 75 yard touchdown reception in week 1.

Not.
Fortunately I have the time and resources to rewatch it, did you?
I just reviewed that play 4 times both freezing motion and regular speed. Kirksey set and edge with a OL attempting your engage and block him, as he surged to make the play in the flat,, he did a nice job of beating the OL and literally got tackled by the OL (much like you see with Edge Defenders rounding the QB pocket) as he rounded the corner.

Kirksey immediately raised his hand on the ground with the OL laying on top of him, in what looked to me as an appeal to a foul. In my opinion he was clearly held. No flag was called, but it was very arguable it should’ve been. We see this regularly where OL get more latitude holding on blocks than other positions would, which is fine.. had a WR hooked him and tackled him like that, it was an obvious foul.
The key here for me was he never relinquished the Edge, which was his responsibility and forced Henry to go due North and kept him in the middle of the field. At best you could argue he was 50% at fault if you called OL hooking him a legal block. Henry scampered 80 yards, initially through the middle of the field, where was the secondary?

Furthermore, in comparison, 0% chance was Blake Martinez going to out athletic a pretty good initial block. Blake would’ve been fully engaged and pushed back 8 yards out of that play. Personally, I’d rather see my Defender tackled as he aggressively beats the block -2 LOS verses back peddling and getting squared up like Blake did consistently 4.2 yards downfield.

 

[Fat Dogs]

Not.
Fortunately I have the time and resources to rewatch it, did you?
I just reviewed that play 4 times both freezing motion and regular speed. Kirksey set and edge with a OL attempting your engage and block him, as he surged to make the play in the flat,, he did a nice job of beating the OL and literally got tackled by the OL (much like you see with Edge Defenders rounding the QB pocket) as he rounded the corner.

Kirksey immediately raised his hand on the ground with the OL laying on top of him, in what looked to me as an appeal to a foul. In my opinion he was clearly held. No flag was called, but it was very arguable it should’ve been. We see this regularly where OL get more latitude holding on blocks than other positions would, which is fine.. had a WR hooked him and tackled him like that, it was an obvious foul.
The key here for me was he never relinquished the Edge, which was his responsibility and forced Henry to go due North and kept him in the middle of the field. At best you could argue he was 50% at fault if you called OL hooking him a legal block. Henry scampered 80 yards, initially through the middle of the field, where was the secondary?

Furthermore, in comparison, 0% chance was Blake Martinez going to out athletic a pretty good initial block. Blake would’ve been fully engaged and pushed back 8 yards out of that play. Personally, I’d rather see my Defender tackled as he aggressively beats the block -2 LOS verses back peddling and getting squared up like Blake did consistently 4.2 yards downfield.

I watched this earlier and saw the same thing. He read and reacted exactly like he should have. Kirksey forced the action inside so a Teamate had a chance to make the play. Unfortunately all of his help got sucked in and he was on an island. You are right. That easily could have been called.