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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 628958"><p>That run defense DVOA is consistent with the 5.0 yards per carry rudimentary stat, which ranks 30th. Last year it was 4.3 YPC in the tale of two seasons at the ILB position.</p><p></p><p>This season, the Packers have allowed 33 rushing first downs on 131 attempts, a 25% rate. Last season it was 116 rushing first downs on 449 attempts for a nearly indistinguishable 26%.</p><p></p><p>So, why does the consensus eye test (including mine) say the run defense is markedly improved, even if not as dramatically as some would have it?</p><p></p><p>First, lets consider QB runs, the preponderance of which have been QB scrambles. Opponent QBs have run 31 times for 201 yards, a fairly high 6.5 average for QBs. That shouldn't be too surprising given the QBs in question and the fact they haven't had opportunities in the "victory formation" where those -1 yd. carries put small dents in the average.</p><p></p><p>If we reduce the QB average to a normalized 4.0 per carry (Rodgers, a top scrambler with perhaps a few more than average offsetting victory formations, has a career average of 4.9) on the same number of attempts, that lops 77 yards off the opponents' gross rushing yards. With that adjustment, the average comes down to 4.4, about in line with last season.</p><p></p><p>In another consideration of the overall eye test, it would be easy to overlook Gurley's 55 yarder since it resulted in no points, or to discard as an outlier since the longest previous run was Forte's 23 yarder in week 1.</p><p></p><p>So just for yucks, if we throw out the highlight reel as an aberration, Gurley gained 3.6 YPC on his other 29 runs.</p><p></p><p>On a season basis, normalizing the QB numbers and tossing Gurley's long gainer, the gross yardage drops by 132 and the YPC drops to 4.0. That would tie for 18th. in league, without giving any other team the benefit of any applicable deductions similar to the one's I've applied here.</p><p></p><p>So why does this run defense look better than that? I think it comes down to the base defense which has looked outstanding to the stat-free eye. PFF has given Daniels and Raji very high grades in run defense, if one wants to respect that eye test.</p><p></p><p>Here's a further statistical indication of the strength of the base run D. According to ESPN, Matthews is credited with 19 total tackles (solo + assist). Considering at least 5 of those came on full or partial sacks, he's had at most 14 tackles in the run game, maybe less. That's 3 per game, an exceptionally low number for anybody playing ILB. We know he's not missing many tackles and we know he runs to the ball on every play. So what gives? I think it comes down to the fact that the preponderance of his plays at the second level are in base; the eye test says runners are not getting to him very often in the base D.</p><p></p><p>The question that comes to my mind is how good is this run defense in nickel? That constitutes around 65% of the plays, give or take, year in and year out, many of which are tweener run-pass downs.</p><p></p><p>I'd be curious to see the base vs. nickel run stat breakdowns, if anybody has access to that. First down % on nickel runs would be particularly interesting. (Cue the Captain <img src="/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/wink.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=";)" title="Wink ;)" data-shortname=";)" />).</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 628958"] That run defense DVOA is consistent with the 5.0 yards per carry rudimentary stat, which ranks 30th. Last year it was 4.3 YPC in the tale of two seasons at the ILB position. This season, the Packers have allowed 33 rushing first downs on 131 attempts, a 25% rate. Last season it was 116 rushing first downs on 449 attempts for a nearly indistinguishable 26%. So, why does the consensus eye test (including mine) say the run defense is markedly improved, even if not as dramatically as some would have it? First, lets consider QB runs, the preponderance of which have been QB scrambles. Opponent QBs have run 31 times for 201 yards, a fairly high 6.5 average for QBs. That shouldn't be too surprising given the QBs in question and the fact they haven't had opportunities in the "victory formation" where those -1 yd. carries put small dents in the average. If we reduce the QB average to a normalized 4.0 per carry (Rodgers, a top scrambler with perhaps a few more than average offsetting victory formations, has a career average of 4.9) on the same number of attempts, that lops 77 yards off the opponents' gross rushing yards. With that adjustment, the average comes down to 4.4, about in line with last season. In another consideration of the overall eye test, it would be easy to overlook Gurley's 55 yarder since it resulted in no points, or to discard as an outlier since the longest previous run was Forte's 23 yarder in week 1. So just for yucks, if we throw out the highlight reel as an aberration, Gurley gained 3.6 YPC on his other 29 runs. On a season basis, normalizing the QB numbers and tossing Gurley's long gainer, the gross yardage drops by 132 and the YPC drops to 4.0. That would tie for 18th. in league, without giving any other team the benefit of any applicable deductions similar to the one's I've applied here. So why does this run defense look better than that? I think it comes down to the base defense which has looked outstanding to the stat-free eye. PFF has given Daniels and Raji very high grades in run defense, if one wants to respect that eye test. Here's a further statistical indication of the strength of the base run D. According to ESPN, Matthews is credited with 19 total tackles (solo + assist). Considering at least 5 of those came on full or partial sacks, he's had at most 14 tackles in the run game, maybe less. That's 3 per game, an exceptionally low number for anybody playing ILB. We know he's not missing many tackles and we know he runs to the ball on every play. So what gives? I think it comes down to the fact that the preponderance of his plays at the second level are in base; the eye test says runners are not getting to him very often in the base D. The question that comes to my mind is how good is this run defense in nickel? That constitutes around 65% of the plays, give or take, year in and year out, many of which are tweener run-pass downs. I'd be curious to see the base vs. nickel run stat breakdowns, if anybody has access to that. First down % on nickel runs would be particularly interesting. (Cue the Captain ;)). [/QUOTE]
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