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Message: <blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 593976">This is a closed system with some circularity built into it; the formulas by which they measure offensive line performance against the run appear to be identical to the ones used in measuring defensive lines against the run.  So why not first consider the flip side, i.e., Football Outsiders' rankings of defensive line adjusted run performance, in questioning your starting assumption about the quality of the competition? <a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl" target="_blank">http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl</a>Seattle's last 4 opponents ranked 11th., 25th. 6th. and 3rd. on the season, a pretty strong set of opponents according to FO's  defensive line run rating.Green Bay's last 4 opponents ranked 24th., 4th., 8th. and 1st., a somewhat stronger set of opponents, but not appreciably so.  Further, I would suspect that Buffalo's late season rankings were weaker than their overall season ranking when they went heavy to 6-in-the-box alignments with their beast short yardage run stopper Spikes seeing fewer snaps, as was the case against GB.  Gerald McCoy played the first 14 games for Tampa but was sidelined for game 15 against Green Bay; their season ranking does not reflect the diminished D-Line the Packers faced. I have a few questions regarding the value of these stats:1.  The formulas are evidently proprietary given the lack of information about how the various adjustments are calculated.  That lack of transparency makes then largely a "black box" that prevents analysis of the methodology. 2.  I think it's a dubious assumption that only 50% credit (or debit on the defensive side) is given in the 5-10 yard range, and particularly that 0% credit is attributed to the lines on 11+ yards of gain.  5+ yard gains, and particularly long gainers, often begin with a decent hole with the the back getting through the line clean and/or a good second level block.3.  For what it's worth, the stats are not measuring "line play" per se; on the offensive side of the ball the play of the FBs, HBs, TEs and even WRs figure into the stats.  More significantly, on the defensive side of the ball, the LB play is critical in limiting yards in 10 or less yard gains which is what these stats are measuring exclusively.</blockquote>

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