Gutekunst Draft Tendencies

Dantés

Gute Loot
Joined
Jan 21, 2017
Messages
12,115
Reaction score
3,036
Gutekunst has been making draft picks for the Packers for 6 seasons now. He's made 8 picks in the 1st Round, 13 picks on Day 2, and 40 picks on Day 3.

I want to dig into what he's done to this point in his tenure as GM and see what patterns emerge.

By Position:

-Quarterback: 2
--1st Round: 1
--Day 2: 0
--Day 3: 1

-Running Back: 4
--1st Round: 0
--Day 2: 1
--Day 3: 3

-Tight End: 4
--1st Round: 0
--Day 2: 4
--Day 3: 0

-Wide Receiver: 10
--1st Round: 0
--Day 2: 3
--Day 3: 7

-Offensive Tackle: 4
--1st Round: 0
--Day 2: 0
--Day 3: 4

-Interior OL: 7
--1st Round: 0
--Day 2: 3
--Day 3: 4

-Defensive Line: 7
--1st Round: 1
--Day 2: 0
--Day 3: 6

-Edge Defender: 4
--1st Round: 2
--Day 2: 0
--Day 3: 2

-Linebacker: 5
--1st Round: 1
--Day 2: 1
--Day 3: 3

-Cornerback: 6
--1st Round: 2
--Day 2: 1
--Day 3: 3

-Safety: 4
--1st Round: 1
--Day 2: 0
--Day 3: 3

-Specialists: 3
--1st Round: 0
--Day 2: 0
--Day 3: 3

By Round:

1st Round:
QB (1); DL (1); ED (2); LB (1); CB (2); S (1)
Day 2: RB (1); TE (4); WR (3); iOL (3); LB (1); CB (1)
Day 3: QB (1); RB (3); WR (7); OT (4); iOL (4); DL (6); ED (2); LB (3); CB (3); S (3); ST (3)

By RAS:

1st Round:
Every selection has been 8.35 or higher (Savage); only two have been under 9.0 (Savage & Love); five have been over 9.5.
Day 2: RAS is available for 11/12 players (Josh Myers was injured); 8/11 were above 9; the three under were Sternberger (5.18), Rodgers (5.37), Reed (6.61).
Day 3: I'm not looking up that many guys.

By CFB Level:

1st Round:
7/8 guys were Power 5 (Love the only exception); 3 SEC, 3 Big 10, 1 ACC
Day 2: 10/13 guys were Power 5; 1 G5; 2 FCS
Day 3: Not sorting through 40 guys
 
OP
OP
Dantés

Dantés

Gute Loot
Joined
Jan 21, 2017
Messages
12,115
Reaction score
3,036
Speculative Conclusions (i.e. we don't know these things, but the data may indicate them):

1. Defense in Round 1:
It may be that in a league that tilts the field in favor of the offense, Gutekunst believes in investing premium capital on the side of the ball that's harder to play. I can also see how he would seek to balance investment by spending round 1 picks on defense given that a huge chunk of the cap goes to the franchise QB. Specifically, it seems they like to spend round 1 picks on guys who can cover or guys who can rush.

2. Offense on Day 2: Whereas only 1 pick has gone to offense in the first round, 11/13 have gone to offense on day 2. It seems there could be an intention to fill out the QB's supporting cast in rounds 2 and 3.

3. Lower Value on OL? Another possible conclusion here is that Gutekunst believes in the organization's ability to find and develop OL talent later than normal and thus values linemen lower than your average team.

4. RAS for Days: This isn't anything new, but if you needed a reminder, Gutekunst drafts high level athletes. It's an unbroken trend in round 1 and it's a very strong trend on day 2.

So as this draft class comes into focus, keep these trends in mind. Gutekunst is probably taking a defender in round 1. Given the needs on the roster, probably a cornerback. Expect to see OL and RB on day 2-- perhaps more than 1. If a guy is sub 8.0 RAS, it's probably not happening in round 1; day 2 is a possibility, but still unlikely. Set your expectations accordingly.
 
OP
OP
Dantés

Dantés

Gute Loot
Joined
Jan 21, 2017
Messages
12,115
Reaction score
3,036
And just as one more comment for anyone who is upset by the Packers' affinity for RAS:

Jordan Love: 8.45
Aaron Jones: 9.21
Luke Musgrave: 9.78
Tucker Kraft: 9.83
Christian Watson: 9.96
Dontayvion Wicks: 9.49
Elgton Jenkins: 9.34
Zach Tom: 9.59
Kenny Clark: 9.60
Quay Walker: 9.63
Jaire Alexander: 9.63

It has served them pretty well. There are good players who don't have super high RAS (Bakhtiari, Reed, Clark), but trending towards great athletes pays off more than it doesn't.
 

Thirteen Below

Cheesehead
Joined
Jan 15, 2022
Messages
614
Reaction score
424
Over his 6 years, no other team has averaged over 10 picks per draft. Average number of picks per year is 8, and some teams end up with as few as 6, 5 - or even 4 - because of reckless trades, but Gutekunst hoards picks like Scrooge MacDuck hoards dollars. So that's certainly a significant tendency in its own right.

But part of that is probably due to our draft and develop philosophy; we seem to get more comp picks than most teams as our young players move on in free agency.
 

tynimiller

Cheesehead
Joined
May 2, 2012
Messages
14,141
Reaction score
5,014
And just as one more comment for anyone who is upset by the Packers' affinity for RAS:

Jordan Love: 8.45
Aaron Jones: 9.21
Luke Musgrave: 9.78
Tucker Kraft: 9.83
Christian Watson: 9.96
Dontayvion Wicks: 9.49
Elgton Jenkins: 9.34
Zach Tom: 9.59
Kenny Clark: 9.60
Quay Walker: 9.63
Jaire Alexander: 9.63

It has served them pretty well. There are good players who don't have super high RAS (Bakhtiari, Reed, Clark), but trending towards great athletes pays off more than it doesn't.

Exactly! Not to mention often times the sub 8 RAS guys Gute likes are your atypical body types playing out of a hybrid positioning at college...best recent example is Karl Brooks (5.73)

It really shines with Day3 guys that RAS I think is where the juice is worth the squeeze....just last year Wicks, Carrington Valentine, Wooden....2022 you had Tom
 

tynimiller

Cheesehead
Joined
May 2, 2012
Messages
14,141
Reaction score
5,014
I have all Gute's drafts saved on a spreadsheet. To answer the RAS type questions Day 3 since I have them handy for everyone:

Average of those with test numbers is 8.151
Most notables: 40 total, 10 no testing numbers for RAS. Of 30 left 10 of them above 9.00...18 of the 30 over 8.00.



Also Gute's overall RAS average of all picks with measurables tested: 8.21
 

tynimiller

Cheesehead
Joined
May 2, 2012
Messages
14,141
Reaction score
5,014
Also I break on a chart out Rds 4/5 together and 6/7

You must be logged in to see this image or video!
 

Thirteen Below

Cheesehead
Joined
Jan 15, 2022
Messages
614
Reaction score
424
So we may have a pretty good idea of who our 1st round pick will be by mid-March, right? And at least some possible hints for Day 2?

This is some very shrewd detective work.
 
OP
OP
Dantés

Dantés

Gute Loot
Joined
Jan 21, 2017
Messages
12,115
Reaction score
3,036
So we may have a pretty good idea of who our 1st round pick will be by mid-March, right? And at least some possible hints for Day 2?

This is some very shrewd detective work.

Yeah I’d say we will be able to narrow the list significantly and with a high degree of certainty.

But I will say that Gutekunst has thrown some curves. There was a time that many would have said he didn’t value linebackers in round one, and then he took one.
 

Thirteen Below

Cheesehead
Joined
Jan 15, 2022
Messages
614
Reaction score
424
Yeah I’d say we will be able to narrow the list significantly and with a high degree of certainty.
I just hate being predictable, but jesus..., if your Man has got a system that works, and he knows how to work it, you can't worry about whether other peoiple might start to figure out how he's doing. You have to just let him run with it.

Cuz figuring out what his strategy is, and figuring out how to defeat it or even exploit it for your own purposes, are two totally different things.

It's like the old Green Bay Power Sweep - every single team in the league knew exactly what was coming, and exactly how we were going to do it, but they couldn't do a damned thing to stop it. Because Lombardi was Just. That. Good.

The last couple of years, I've been beating my head against the desk trying to figure out wht Gute's system is, because he has obviously got one. And it's a very complicated one, very complex. I've been starting to "get" that there's something aout the way he organizes his board and assigns value to each prospect, that is different from the way other teams do this. He seem to have a plan in place for every single pick and every single circumstance - who to take at that spot (who he thinks is the best value at that specific spot), when to trade it away at the last minute and drop down 6 spots to take the guy he vaues differenty than any other teams seem to value, when to move up to grab a guy that he thinks nobody else has idenitifed yet....

There's something about his scouting and draft strategy that just works differently. Like I say, I haven't figured it out yet, but I am absolutely certain that he's figured something out that nobody else has figured out yet.

And I kinda hope I never do, because if someone as dumb as I am can figure it out, than some of the other GMs will do it too. And then the fun's over.
 

PikeBadger

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
6,486
Reaction score
1,818
I just hate being predictable, but jesus..., if your Man has got a system that works, and he knows how to work it, you can't worry about whether other peoiple might start to figure out how he's doing. You have to just let him run with it.

Cuz figuring out what his strategy is, and figuring out how to defeat it or even exploit it for your own purposes, are two totally different things.

It's like the old Green Bay Power Sweep - every single team in the league knew exactly what was coming, and exactly how we were going to do it, but they couldn't do a damned thing to stop it. Because Lombardi was Just. That. Good.

The last couple of years, I've been beating my head against the desk trying to figure out wht Gute's system is, because he has obviously got one. And it's a very complicated one, very complex. I've been starting to "get" that there's something aout the way he organizes his board and assigns value to each prospect, that is different from the way other teams do this. He seem to have a plan in place for every single pick and every single circumstance - who to take at that spot (who he thinks is the best value at that specific spot), when to trade it away at the last minute and drop down 6 spots to take the guy he vaues differenty than any other teams seem to value, when to move up to grab a guy that he thinks nobody else has idenitifed yet....

There's something about his scouting and draft strategy that just works differently. Like I say, I haven't figured it out yet, but I am absolutely certain that he's figured something out that nobody else has figured out yet.

And I kinda hope I never do, because if someone as dumb as I am can figure it out, than some of the other GMs will do it too. And then the fun's over.
I've always said that Thompson and Gutekunst draft boards were not close to being identical to any other teams. Interesting also that Russ Ball doesn't negotiate contracts the same way that other teams do, and the agents know this.
We've been blessed with superb management for many, many years. I have a feeling that many of the complainers here will never admit this however, because well...... we do things differently from what the national writers and mouthpieces say. $crew all of them. I'm in complete support of Packers management.

Edit P.S. - I became totally convinced we were very different when Thompson revealed during one of his post draft press conferences that they had about 125 players on their draft board. I was stunned to say the least.
 
Last edited:

PikeBadger

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
6,486
Reaction score
1,818
Yeah I’d say we will be able to narrow the list significantly and with a high degree of certainty.

But I will say that Gutekunst has thrown some curves. There was a time that many would have said he didn’t value linebackers in round one, and then he took one.
I expect to see improved performance by you in Amish's draft contest. People are watching, just sayin. :cool:
 

Poppa San

* Team Owner *
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Aug 29, 2010
Messages
12,969
Reaction score
2,838
Location
20 miles from Lambeau
Speculative Conclusions
I also believe that the first drafts were done to restart the development pipeline based on the new coaching schemes. The journeyman or aged starters and holes were filled by FA to plug the leaks while the draft filled the pipeline. The past 3 or 4 drafts are probably a truer indication of his philosophy except for when he refilled the empty receiving room last season. This next draft will probably be skewed slightly towards giving Hafley a few shiny new toys.
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2014
Messages
14,413
Reaction score
5,778
Good stuff, we definitely are unique in our draft approach and I think more people are taking notice that our methodology isn't so crazy after all.

This years 2024 draft for Brian will possibly break a more traditional role from a movement standpoint. We rarely have 5 selections in the Top 100 AND money to spend in FA. Not to mention the day 3 selections value is diminishing past the mean. The shift into a continued lack of underclassmen declaring for the draft is stressing an emphasis on those first few rounds.

I’m predicting a surprise this year. I think we might see selection(s) in trade for an outside, veteran player OR
some additional moves around the board such as trades back n forth on a smaller level of 2018. There’s going to be more activity than our normal draft before/during. Just a hunch.
OR
Slightly more semi-aggressive approach. Maybe on format similar to 2018. Not as volatile of trading as 2018 pre-draft and live draft, but somewhere leaning that feel.

We have the Company credit card AND Dad’s Sportscar and he’s gone for the weekend. I suspect some attempts at reversing the odometer before he gets back!
 
Last edited:

Sanguine camper

Cheesehead
Joined
Jan 14, 2014
Messages
1,963
Reaction score
592
And just as one more comment for anyone who is upset by the Packers' affinity for RAS:

Jordan Love: 8.45
Aaron Jones: 9.21
Luke Musgrave: 9.78
Tucker Kraft: 9.83
Christian Watson: 9.96
Dontayvion Wicks: 9.49
Elgton Jenkins: 9.34
Zach Tom: 9.59
Kenny Clark: 9.60
Quay Walker: 9.63
Jaire Alexander: 9.63

It has served them pretty well. There are good players who don't have super high RAS (Bakhtiari, Reed, Clark), but trending towards great athletes pays off more than it doesn't.
Clark had a pretty good RAS at 9.6. Reed ran a poor 40 time at the combine which may have lowered his RAS if that is the time they picked. Follow up workouts showed he was faster than his combine time. Perhaps he had a slight injury. In any case, somebody on the Packers scouting department probably did their homework and suggested a follow up visit with Reed to test his speed. That was wise. Was unaware how athletic Zach Tom was coming out of college. Glad every other team let him fall to the Packers.
 

tynimiller

Cheesehead
Joined
May 2, 2012
Messages
14,141
Reaction score
5,014
Clark had a pretty good RAS at 9.6. Reed ran a poor 40 time at the combine which may have lowered his RAS if that is the time they picked. Follow up workouts showed he was faster than his combine time. Perhaps he had a slight injury. In any case, somebody on the Packers scouting department probably did their homework and suggested a follow up visit with Reed to test his speed. That was wise. Was unaware how athletic Zach Tom was coming out of college. Glad every other team let him fall to the Packers.

Reed actually was hit hardest by his size outlier nature and his vertical sucked.
You must be logged in to see this image or video!
 

Thirteen Below

Cheesehead
Joined
Jan 15, 2022
Messages
614
Reaction score
424
With all the draft talk the last couple of weeks, I've been trying to break down some of Gutekunst's patterns to see if we can speculate a little more accurately on how next weekend is going to play out. This thread really got me thinkng, and I keep comng back and using it as a starting point to do reserch on various aspects of Gute's tendencies. Someone asked a question last night in another sub-forum that got my started on what I've picked up on, and the more I started to write, the more kept coming out. So I finally just gave in and wrote up everything I was thinking of.

Some people will think I'm full of crap, but maybe some will find some value in it. At any rate, hopefully it spawns some discussions. And keep in mind, some of the apparent patterns are somewhat difficult to solidly support, because of a limited sample size (like, the paucity of 4th Round picks he's made).

I try to stick to just objective data and limit whatever opinions I draw from that data, but there seem to be some very consistent patterns to the way he manages different stages of the draft. He places a very high priority on using the first 2 rounds to snag premium players at posiitons of need, and Round 1 and 2 tend to follow mostly the same pattern. There is historically a big departure from that pattern in Round 3, and an entirely new pattern altogether in Round 4... Rounds 5 & 6 follow a somewhat new pattern, and Round 7 is... well... Round 7. Not much different than most teams' 7th round, but interestingly, his Round 7 pattern for prioritizing players is in many ways very similar to Rounds 1 & 2.

And in the last part, after I've gone through the rounds, I briefly touch on what seem to be his tendencies for draft day trades.

FWIW, I looked up the RAS of every player he's ever drafted, in every round, as well as the schools they came out of. In many cases, I deep-dove into their player profile at school to see how much they played, and what their strengths and weaknesses were considered to be at taht time. I also went back in time and looked up their draft profiles on quite a few of them from their draft year, to see where they were projected to go compared to where we took them. I especially did this in cases where a kid coming out of a powerhouse program like Miami or Michigan was drafted in a later round; why was a 4-year starter drafted in the 7th? Tried to get a sense of why some players went sooner or later than one might expect.

It's long, and I'm sorry for that, but I wanted mostly to not leave out any potentially relevant detail. So, here goes.... flame away!

ROUND 1

He seems to see the first round as his best chance in the draft to add a surefire, elite player, a difference-maker, a cornerstone. He goes to whatever lengths he feels necessary to make sure he comes out of Round 1 with a premium player.

He tends to be cautious and prudent, and he values athleticism very highly; only 2 of his 8 first round picks were below 9.39 RAS - Savage at 8.35. and Jordan Love at 8.46 (very high for a quarterback - Aaron Rodgers scored 7.14, Pay Mahomes, was 8.24, and Tom Brady managed just 2.74). Average RAS of Gutekunst's 1st round picks is 9.28.

Of the 8 first round picks he has made in his time here, 5 of them have involved trades - 3 of them a trade up, 2 of them a trade down. He traded both down and then back up to select Jaire with his very first draft pick as Packers GM.

4 out of 6 years, he's spent lower draft picks to move up in the first and get the player he wants the most. And that's not a bad strategy; he usually hits extra base hits in the first, outside of Savage. His first round is almost always a major success. Given where we're sitting this year, and the talent pool, this is a year he could just as easily trade up as trade down, and history suggests he's likely to do at least one of those two things. He's not shy about using 4th and 5th rounders to move up in the 1st; this is a year where I think that's likely - possibly combined with a trade back for an extra Day 3.


He also concentrates in this round on players from major colleges with elite football programs - no Boston Colleges or North Dakota States here. He wants a player who's been coached at a high level and has competed against the top college players in the country. The closest things to exceptions have been Jordan Love and Darnell Savage, and we all see how Savage worked out. I'm sure Gute noticed the significance of that abberation as well.


ROUND 2

2nd round is usually a slightly looser continuation of his 1st round philosophy - he still wants top notch athletes (he's only drafted one 2nd rounder with an RAS below 9, and that was Jayden Reed), and for the most part his 2nd-rounders are legitimate 2nd-rounders - with some obvious question marks like Dillon and Myers. He doesn't focus quite as much on premium football programs as he does in the 1st round. He's not afraid to take a skilled player in this round from a lesser school or conference if the scouting supports that choice.

So, he seems to feel perhaps slightly more free to gamble with a 2nd-rounder, but only within fairly narrow parameters, and he remains highly disciplined with his choices and focused on an elite athlete. Average second round RAS is 9.07.

ROUND 3

This where he tends to break those patterns for the first time... rolls the dice, and throws caution to the wind and RAS scores out the window. The average RAS of Gute's 3rd round picks is 7.65, with a couple of them down in the low 5s - whereas 8.35 was the lowest RAS he ever drafted in the first two rounds, Darnell Savage.

In round 3 of his first 5 drafts, Gutekunst consistently both reached and deviated from his prioritization on athleticism, apparently feeling that was a safe round to take long shots, and last year was the first exception. If you back out the RAS scores from his 3rd Rounders in 23, (Tucker Kraft, the only decent player he ever took in the 3rd) the average RAS of his 3rd round draft picks was a dismal 7.24 - Tucker Kraft bumped it up almost a half point last year. He also continues to favor players from upper-tier programs in the 3rd, Tucker Kraft again being the exception.

People often speak of Gute's "3rd round curse", his bad luck in the third round, but I don't think it's bad luck at all - it's just that prior to 2023 he completely departed from his normal draft strategy in that round every single year. With 3 of his 3rd-round picks those first 5 years, he abandoned his commitment to elite athletes, and took players with an RAS of 6.67 or lower - 1.3 points lower than anyone he had ever drafted in Rounds 1 or 2. With the other 2 picks, he stayed true to athleticism (his picks were 9.35 and 9.75); but both players were a reach, having been projected for the 5th and 6th rounds.

2023 is the first year he follows the same pattern in the 3rd as he does in the 1st and 2nd. Hopefully that represents the beginning of a new trend, rather than a temporary departure from the existing trend.

ROUND 4

The 4th round is where Gutekunst gets focused again and looks for reliable rotational players and depth; players who can sit on the practice squad and/or special teams for a year or two and see if NFL level coaching can turn them into NFL level players. His 4th-round formula has generally worked out very well; he's gotten some good and even excellent players with that pick - 3 out of 5, in fact. That's pretty good for a 4th round, very much better than the league average. And he's back onboard the "elite athlete" train - average 4th round RAS is a solid 9.

He seems to look here for players from lower-profile schools who may not have attracted a lot of attention from scouts - Nevada, Wake Forest, Missouri, Auburn... good schools, but not a lot of prime time exposure. No Ohio States or Georgias in his 4th rounds.


ROUNDS 5-6

As with most teams, the 5th and 6th are where he finds project players who may spend a year on special teams and the practice squad and see how they respond to NFL coaching; 5-6 are usually depth/rotational players with good upside to become starters within a couple of years and maybe provide some competition at their positions, or even just special teams. RAS scores start to matter less; he still prioritizes pure athleticism, but is more willing to set it aside if he thinks a player has some sort of special qualities.

RAS values in Round 5 range from 4.27 to 9.27, with an average of 7.27; 6th round ranges from 3.74 to 9.84, for an average of 7.6 - both comparable to his average in the 3rd round, but with much more range. By the time he gets to these later rounds, he seems to feel that with so many other things being equal, let's grab the guy with the most pure athletic ability and see what he turns into. About 70% of his picks in these 2 rounds are from major (or at least solid) college programs, with an occasional Appalachian State or Bowling Green sprinkled in.

ROUND 7

By the 7th round, he's apparently focusing on the best athletes he can find who show some signs of football skills. Average RAS is back up to 8.73 - the highest since Round 4, and a range of 3.83 to 9.89. The widest range of any round, although 7 of the 13 for whom RAS is available are 9+ and 2 more are 8+.

He's generally just throwing darts at a board here, like every other team in the 7th, hoping that one of the really good athletes who have a promising set of football tools might bloom a year or two later than most players... or a guy who may not be an extremely talented athlete, but can work his way onto the practice squad and, later, the team. Good athletes who are just raw.

Most of his 7th rounders are from premium schools ike Miami, Penn State, Nebraska, etc, who've had several years' exposure to a top-tier program but need more development (Samori Toure), or had injury concerns (Rasheed Walker).

DRAFT DAY TRADES

Expect trades. In his first 6 drafts, Gutekunst has been a real wheeler-dealer - 10 draft day trades in 6 years.

In the 1st round, Gute has made 4 trades - trading down once, and up three times. These trades brought us Jaire Alexander, Darnelle Savage, and Jordan Love.

Round 2: 2 trades back, 1 trade up... Jayden Reed, Karl Brooks, Dontayvion Wicks, and Christian Watson

Round 3: 2 trades up, getting us Owen Burks and Amari Rodgers; 1 trade back and got Jonathan Ford

He has a tendency to trade back when he see an opportunity to pick up 3rd, 4th, or 5th round picks that he can then use to trade up in the 1st and 2nd and steal an impact player who he thinks slipped through the cracks. Trading up to get a good player in the 1st or 2nd has worked well for him; mid- to late-round picks that he traded back for tend to be inconsequential - but then again, most mid- to late-round picks do.

History (along with our draft posiition, and the talent pool this year) suggests it's more likely than not Gutekunst will trade up in he 1st this weekend. But really, anything is possible, and all we can do is wait and see.
 
Last edited:

Thirteen Below

Cheesehead
Joined
Jan 15, 2022
Messages
614
Reaction score
424
TLDR... a couple of things I found interesting were the similarities between his preferences for both 1st and 7th round picks (elite RAS scores, and coming out of a premium college football program), and how radically he shifts his pattern in both the 3rd and then again the 4th, as well as how successful he's been in the 4th. Maybe he needs to be giving up his 3rds when trading up in the 1st, and keeping the 4ths for himself.
 

Schultz

Cheesehead
Joined
Mar 8, 2021
Messages
2,853
Reaction score
1,629
I probably would have mentioned that 7 of his 8 1st round picks were defensive players. I also find that he does not draft for need, preferring BPA in the 1st round. I guess everyone has their own definition of surefire, elite player, difference maker. Truthfully, I am not sure there are any. Taking GBs normal draft position into consideration can affect that. I am just not sure I would call any of the 3 Georgia guys, or Gary & Love consensus surefire players as they were either surprise type picks or players who needed time to develop or both. As you mentioned Savage was also a surprise pick. LVN to me was not a surprise but a will need time to develop pick. That just leaves JA. Let's just say I have a slightly different take on his 1st round philosophy. I pretty much mostly agree on your takes of rounds 2-7. Thanks for all of the time I imagine it took to not only research, but then type out your short story. As always this is only my opinion.
 

Thirteen Below

Cheesehead
Joined
Jan 15, 2022
Messages
614
Reaction score
424
I probably would have mentioned that 7 of his 8 1st round picks were defensive players.
I don't see that so much as a philosophy for how he evaluates players, but rather what he thought was the best player available to him at that particular moment. Or rather, the best player available who fits a need. For various reasons, it seems to be that 3 years out of every 4, a premium defensive player is what the team needs most badly.

I also find that he does not draft for need, preferring BPA in the 1st round.
I think that like most GMs, Gute's definition for defining who is "the best player available" largely means whomever is most likely to be "the best player available who can help us the most at this moment in time". In most cases, a GM has some ideas on

I guess everyone has their own definition of surefire, elite player, difference maker. Truthfully, I am not sure there are any.
Taking GBs normal draft position into consideration can affect that. I am just not sure I would call any of the 3 Georgia guys, or Gary & Love consensus surefire players as they were either surprise type picks or players who needed time to develop or both.
But he did. That's the point. And while the jury's still out on Stokes, he appears to have ben right on all of them.

As you mentioned Savage was also a surprise pick.
Very much. He has some serious red flags, and was widely projected in Round 3. But he was also one of those players who was considered likely to go early by someone who fell in love with his 4.36 speed, and sure enough Green Bay did it. Big mistake; hopefully Gute learned a lifelong lesson from that.

Thanks for all of the time I imagine it took to not only research, but then type out your short story. As always this is only my opinion.
Hah! More a novella. Way TMI there. Probably could have organized it a lot better, but was burned out after compiling it.

It was fun to do, though, and I was particularly surprised by what I learned about how he aproaches the 3rd Round, how much weight RAS seems to carry in different rounds, and the types of schools he drafts most heavily from invarious rounds. Oh, also on that one... forgot to get this in there, but man, Gute seems to trust his mountain states/West Coast scouts. We seem to get a lot of players from that end of the country.

I'll be interested in seeing how closely this weekend's draft parallels the historical trends.
 

Schultz

Cheesehead
Joined
Mar 8, 2021
Messages
2,853
Reaction score
1,629
Thanks for responding. I still disagree with your BPA analysis of who is going to help us the most at this moment in time. Gary, Love, Wyatt & LVN did not play enough snaps in their rookie years to fall into that category IMO.
 

Members online

No members online now.

Latest posts

Top