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Message: <blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 803763">Let's break that down, once again, with the current numbers.<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The current contractual obligations for 2019 equal approx. $152.1 mil for 42 players, not including any of the following free agents:  <a href="https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/green-bay-packers/" target="_blank">https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/green-bay-packers/</a></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Here are the 42 players that $152.1 mil is buying, the starting point in determining needs:  click on the 2019 tab at <a href="https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/" target="_blank">https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/</a></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">That $47.5 mil in cap space implies a Packers $199.5 mil cap number = $9.6 mil in carryover + a $189.9 mil 2019 league cap number</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The carryover is reasonably close to the current NFLPA 2018 cap space number of $9.1 mil:  <a href="https://www.nflpa.com/public-salary-cap-report" target="_blank">https://www.nflpa.com/public-salary-cap-report</a></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The $189.9 mil league cap number is a $12.7 mil bump over 2018, a little aggressive compared to this season's $10.2 mil bump</li> </ul>But lets go with that $47.5 mil cap space number and consider some basic subtractions:<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Assuming the Packers are drafting at #15, #30, #47 and #79, consider the 2018 cap costs for those picks:  $2.4 mil (Colton Miller), $1.8 mil (Mike Hughes) and $1.1 mil (Christian Kirk) and $0.7 mil (Rasheem Green).</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">That's a $6 mil subtraction + 7% bump in line with the cap bump = $6.4 mil.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">If nothing else, these numbers under the rookie salary scale, with generally modest escalations over the 4 year rookie contracts (e.g., Miller at $4.3 mil in year 4), illustrate the imperative of stacking good drafts in building a championship caliber team.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Free agenting one's way to winning will never work.</li> </ul>Now we're at $41.1 mil in cap space for 46 players.  More minimum subtractions:<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The cost of filling out the remaining 7 spots with the remaining draftees and UDFAs at $500,000  per player, give or take, is a $3.5 mil subtraction.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The cost of 10 practice squad guys should come in around $1.4 mil.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Cap has to be held in reserve for IR replacements.  Also, if Gutekunst's shuffling of the bottom of the roster in-season continues, add a little for dead cap.  $3 mil would be a prudent minimal number.</li> </ul>Now we're at $33.2 mil to fill out the roster and maintain a minimum reserve before considering FAs.But if you spend it all down to the $3 mil in reserve, and you'd like to extend Clark and Martinez before the year is out, you will not have the cap to do that.   Make the necessary subtractions for prorated signing bonuses allocated to 2018 for those guys, something like $6 mil, maybe more depending on what Clark commands.In "tear it down" mode, you could pick up additiona cap space with the following cuts but with more holes to fill:<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Perry:  $3.3 mil</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Bulaga:  $6.8 mil</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Daniels (in his 2019 contract year):  $8.5 mil</li> </ul>There is a long way to go to get to a championship caliber roster with that $47.5 in projected cap space when you consider the list of 42 players under contract at $152 mil for 2019.  My prescription is to target 2020 by concentrating spending on a couple of talented second contract free agents at positions of need who, of course, will be quite expensive.  Mack money on one player wouldn't and won't fix what is broken.Gutekunst was headed in this direction, allegedly in the bidding for Allen Robinson and Mack, though I doubt the Mack interest got very far once the costs were revealed, while also making a restricted free agent offer for Fuller.  Any one of these signings would have altered other free agent moves, cuts and the draft.Whether talking about a contract like Graham's or going out and signing some 30 year old guy on the downside of his career, let alone one with an injury history like Earl Thomas (a name that keeps popping up), is throwing good money after bad in an attempt to back and fill into a championship caliber roster.  That doesn't work unless you've already stacked drafts, have decent depth for injury coverage and rotation, and are looking to back and fill a couple of holes or add some missing impact component.  Those 42 players under contract for 2019 do not come close.If McCarthy is going to be canned it should happen pretty quickly after the end of the season.  Bringing in a new head coach I would take as an acknowlegment that one more year of draft and FA is not going to fix what's broken.</blockquote>

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