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<blockquote data-quote="tynimiller" data-source="post: 1031838" data-attributes="member: 6578"><p>I wish I could find the thread where I broke down Gute's time as the lead and our draftees and how many were still active in the NFL vs many of the other "assumed great" team ownerships.</p><p></p><p>Folks I think forget just how damn hard it is to predict a prospect's success at the next level. My scout/war room connection informed me of two things which NO scout and NO GM can ever have enough confidence to write in stone about a prospect:</p><p></p><p>- They will be able to process and execute the speed of the NFL game/playbook</p><p>- They will be able to handle the lifestyle and level of which they've accomplished</p><p></p><p>Those two things there isn't an interview question or collection of questions that will answer definitively....there isn't a college program or enough film studying which will answer that definitively. He said one GM he worked for told him that the absolute BEST prospect he ever drafted he would say he had about 60-65% confidence he knew the type of player he was getting - which is massively different than the player he may be (or the "ceiling" a lot of folks call it).</p><p></p><p>Josh Jackson was a prospect that many saw every tool in the toolbox for, that at minimum should be a top two round prospect....he started UNFIRE out the gate too it seemed and just absolutely couldn't grow for whatever reason.</p><p></p><p>Truthfully many of those guys were either dudes that EXCELLED in college, seemed to have the makings of a clear top 100 at worst prospect and just flat didn't pan out.</p><p></p><p>I've mentioned it before...if half your draft class is good enough to still be in the NFL after their rookie <s>year </s>contract not year - that's a pretty freaking good draft class.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="tynimiller, post: 1031838, member: 6578"] I wish I could find the thread where I broke down Gute's time as the lead and our draftees and how many were still active in the NFL vs many of the other "assumed great" team ownerships. Folks I think forget just how damn hard it is to predict a prospect's success at the next level. My scout/war room connection informed me of two things which NO scout and NO GM can ever have enough confidence to write in stone about a prospect: - They will be able to process and execute the speed of the NFL game/playbook - They will be able to handle the lifestyle and level of which they've accomplished Those two things there isn't an interview question or collection of questions that will answer definitively....there isn't a college program or enough film studying which will answer that definitively. He said one GM he worked for told him that the absolute BEST prospect he ever drafted he would say he had about 60-65% confidence he knew the type of player he was getting - which is massively different than the player he may be (or the "ceiling" a lot of folks call it). Josh Jackson was a prospect that many saw every tool in the toolbox for, that at minimum should be a top two round prospect....he started UNFIRE out the gate too it seemed and just absolutely couldn't grow for whatever reason. Truthfully many of those guys were either dudes that EXCELLED in college, seemed to have the makings of a clear top 100 at worst prospect and just flat didn't pan out. I've mentioned it before...if half your draft class is good enough to still be in the NFL after their rookie [S]year [/S]contract not year - that's a pretty freaking good draft class. [/QUOTE]
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