Forums
New posts
Search forums
What's new
New posts
New media
New media comments
New resources
Latest activity
Media
New media
New comments
Search media
Resources
Latest reviews
Search resources
Members
Current visitors
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
New posts
Search forums
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Forums
Open Football Discussion
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
Free Agency Thread
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="El Guapo" data-source="post: 1031396" data-attributes="member: 5830"><p>Agreed. People need to view drafts differently. Each team starts with seven draft choices and a pool of money for rookie contracts. It really doesn't matter if it's your top picks or low picks that end up being your good players. What really matters is that you beat the average, which you can see below from one study is only about 30%. So if you whiff on your top picks but continually draft a bunch of Tom Bradys, Shannon Sharpes, Richard Dents, and Donald Drivers in the low rounds....what does it matter? The goal is to ace each draft, but the bar is set at getting at least 2-3 starters.</p><p></p><p></p><p><em>[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high[/URL]</em></p><p><em>The author studied 1996-2016 draft picks. The results, which are based on the Pro Football Reference AV metric, are sobering:</em></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><em><em>16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them</em></em></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><em><em>37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.</em></em></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><em><em>15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.</em></em></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><em><em>10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.</em></em></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><em><em>12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters, Pat Elflein or Christian Ponder for example, or perhaps some genuinely good players that didn’t last all that long for the team that drafted them- Sidney Rice for example. This is where the AV metric can over-rate a player based on the number of starts, rather than their performance while on the field.</em></em></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><em><em>6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years.</em></em></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><em><em>1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers.</em></em></li> </ul><p><em>And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and </em><strong><em>only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.</em></strong></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="El Guapo, post: 1031396, member: 5830"] Agreed. People need to view drafts differently. Each team starts with seven draft choices and a pool of money for rookie contracts. It really doesn't matter if it's your top picks or low picks that end up being your good players. What really matters is that you beat the average, which you can see below from one study is only about 30%. So if you whiff on your top picks but continually draft a bunch of Tom Bradys, Shannon Sharpes, Richard Dents, and Donald Drivers in the low rounds....what does it matter? The goal is to ace each draft, but the bar is set at getting at least 2-3 starters. [I][URL unfurl="true"]https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high[/URL] The author studied 1996-2016 draft picks. The results, which are based on the Pro Football Reference AV metric, are sobering:[/I] [LIST] [*][I][I]16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them[/I][/I] [*][I][I]37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.[/I][/I] [*][I][I]15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.[/I][/I] [*][I][I]10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.[/I][/I] [*][I][I]12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters, Pat Elflein or Christian Ponder for example, or perhaps some genuinely good players that didn’t last all that long for the team that drafted them- Sidney Rice for example. This is where the AV metric can over-rate a player based on the number of starts, rather than their performance while on the field.[/I][/I] [*][I][I]6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years.[/I][/I] [*][I][I]1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers.[/I][/I] [/LIST] [I]And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and [/I][B][I]only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.[/I][/B] [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Verification
Post reply
Members online
Darth Garfunkel
Latest posts
Christian Watson signs a 4 year 110m extension
Latest: OldSchool101
26 minutes ago
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
R
Valuation of NFL Teams
Latest: rmontro
Today at 4:09 PM
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
S
Why I Love The 2026-2027 Green Bay Packers
Latest: Schultz
Today at 1:59 PM
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
Cam Achord new ST coach - Fire him
Latest: OldSchool101
Today at 10:55 AM
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
P
The Crew - 2026
Latest: Pugger
Yesterday at 4:38 PM
Milwaukee Brewers Forum
Forums
Open Football Discussion
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
Free Agency Thread
This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
Accept
Learn more…
Top
