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Free Agency: Packers Should Green Bay Pursue?
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 866730"><p>A comparison and an observation:</p><p></p><p>Z. was in the discussion of possible free agent signings last year. I believe you listed both Smiths as possibilites among a few others in one particular post, which got my attention and support in my preferred "go young or go home" approach in rebuilding the roster.</p><p></p><p>I don't recall anybody proposing that Z. be signed for $16.5 million per year, currently the 3rd. highest 3-4 OLB contract on a per year basis behind only Mack and Miller. I think if that had been put on the table strenuous objections would have been voiced. Of course, after the fact any criticism is bound to be somewhat muted in deference to the GM and staff.</p><p></p><p>The point being, that contract required a projection, of the player and the scheme fit. There wasn't confirmed elite status to go with that elite pay. In this case Gutekunst was right. What seperates good GMs from mediocre or poor ones is their projection hit rate, whether with free agents or in the draft--especially in the draft where there is the possibility of good-better-best performance at a low price over 3 or 4 years.</p><p></p><p>So, lets consider how it might be possible to project Hooper into a headline contract:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">His receiving stats over the first half of last season before he sprained a knee were All Pro worthy.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">He's a second contract player in his prime.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Other than that knee sprain last season, where he missed 3 games, he's been a durable player missing 5 games over 4 years. The two games he missed as a rookie were also the result of a knee injury which might be concerning. However, after a few lackluster games post-injury last season, perhaps an injury hangover, Hooper rallied back in the last two games with 14 catches on 18 targets for 127 yards. That should asuage injury risk concerns.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">He may not be an elite blocker but he's surely better than what Graham brought to the table. That's especially helpful if LaFleur continues with an increased number of 2 TE sets as we saw last year as the season wore on.</li> </ul><p>We have the report from Demovsky that Gutekunst intends to "make a run" at Hooper. That's obviously a cost sensitive matter but Gutekunst surely knows he'll command some serious coin. Whether he'd be the highest bidder, as with at least the Smiths and Amos, guys who were downright giddy over their contracts, remains to be seen. We had reports he was in discussions with Robinson and Watkins but settled for Graham a couple years back. He may have a firm max price point on Hooper that he won't exceed.</p><p></p><p>On the other hand, we had a report from a week or so back that discussions with Bulaga had not started. I've seen two different reports about what transpired last year, one saying Bulaga wanted an extension but was not offered one, the other saying we was offered an extension but declined it. If either is true, there is some lingering tension.</p><p></p><p>It comes down to price, price, price and cap, cap, cap, as if that needs to be said. Given that, my speculation would be if either Bulaga or Hooper can be secured at Gutekunst's max price point, and he can only afford one, it would be Hooper.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 866730"] A comparison and an observation: Z. was in the discussion of possible free agent signings last year. I believe you listed both Smiths as possibilites among a few others in one particular post, which got my attention and support in my preferred "go young or go home" approach in rebuilding the roster. I don't recall anybody proposing that Z. be signed for $16.5 million per year, currently the 3rd. highest 3-4 OLB contract on a per year basis behind only Mack and Miller. I think if that had been put on the table strenuous objections would have been voiced. Of course, after the fact any criticism is bound to be somewhat muted in deference to the GM and staff. The point being, that contract required a projection, of the player and the scheme fit. There wasn't confirmed elite status to go with that elite pay. In this case Gutekunst was right. What seperates good GMs from mediocre or poor ones is their projection hit rate, whether with free agents or in the draft--especially in the draft where there is the possibility of good-better-best performance at a low price over 3 or 4 years. So, lets consider how it might be possible to project Hooper into a headline contract: [LIST] [*]His receiving stats over the first half of last season before he sprained a knee were All Pro worthy. [*]He's a second contract player in his prime. [*]Other than that knee sprain last season, where he missed 3 games, he's been a durable player missing 5 games over 4 years. The two games he missed as a rookie were also the result of a knee injury which might be concerning. However, after a few lackluster games post-injury last season, perhaps an injury hangover, Hooper rallied back in the last two games with 14 catches on 18 targets for 127 yards. That should asuage injury risk concerns. [*]He may not be an elite blocker but he's surely better than what Graham brought to the table. That's especially helpful if LaFleur continues with an increased number of 2 TE sets as we saw last year as the season wore on. [/LIST] We have the report from Demovsky that Gutekunst intends to "make a run" at Hooper. That's obviously a cost sensitive matter but Gutekunst surely knows he'll command some serious coin. Whether he'd be the highest bidder, as with at least the Smiths and Amos, guys who were downright giddy over their contracts, remains to be seen. We had reports he was in discussions with Robinson and Watkins but settled for Graham a couple years back. He may have a firm max price point on Hooper that he won't exceed. On the other hand, we had a report from a week or so back that discussions with Bulaga had not started. I've seen two different reports about what transpired last year, one saying Bulaga wanted an extension but was not offered one, the other saying we was offered an extension but declined it. If either is true, there is some lingering tension. It comes down to price, price, price and cap, cap, cap, as if that needs to be said. Given that, my speculation would be if either Bulaga or Hooper can be secured at Gutekunst's max price point, and he can only afford one, it would be Hooper. [/QUOTE]
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