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Free Agency: Packers Should Green Bay Pursue?
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 866726"><p>In my run through on Feb. 7 ("2020 Salary Cap" thread, post #36), which includes Graham's release, projected draft costs, the Jones/Williams escators, but not the Crosby contract. I came up with $24.2 mil to work with factoring in a minimal $2 mil injury reserve. Crosby's deal knocks $4 mil off that number. I did not assume Taylor's release in those numbers, but if we assume Taylor's cap goes to Crosby it's a wash.</p><p></p><p>It's not hard to see how cap dribs and drabs away even without headline signings. If you start backing and filling a couple low-to-mid tier vets and bring back a few restricted and exclusive rights free agents with modest bumps, that's more chunks, dribs or drabs.</p><p></p><p>What makes this season different, obviously, is we don't know what the CBA negotiators project for future revenue and cap.</p><p></p><p>However, there's another factor that came to my attention today that may result in substantial cap growth in 2021 and behond. Something around $2 billion in expenses were subtracted last year from gross revenue against which the 47% to the players was calcualted. That $2 billion includes stadium construction and renovation expenses.</p><p></p><p>We've noticed a somewhat head scratching slowing of cap growth in recent years, down to about 6% in 2019, at the low end of the initial estimate. I think we may have an answer: <strong>stadium construction in LA and Las Vegas.</strong></p><p></p><p>With those stadiums reaching completion, with no new ones coming on line, if we assume half of that $2 billion goes back into the revenue pool against which cap is calculated (with the other half going to ongoing facility capital improvements across the league), the math on 48% going against that addition $1 billion looks like this:</p><p></p><p>$1 billion x 0.48% / 32 teams = <strong>$15 mil additional cap per team per year indefinitely</strong> on top of whatever additional revenue is projected going into the 48% pool from more games and new TV contracts.</p><p></p><p>This is fuzzy math. I have no idea whether the dedcutible expenses for those stadiums have been $1 billion per year in recent years but it goes to illustrate the possibilities. Billions have been poured into these pleasure palaces in recent years.</p><p></p><p>The Bills dome is probably years from ground breaking if it ever gets built. I'm reading that the Redskins plan for a new stadium is stalled. I'm not aware of any others even close to ground breaking but I'm willing to be corrected on that.</p><p></p><p>So, unlike previous years, we are very much in the dark as to the cap implications of headline signings in 2021 and beyond because it is impossible to estimate future cap. If there's an expected big jump, backloaded contracts come back into play with the affect of next year's cap liabilites and free agents neutralized to one degree or another.</p><p></p><p>In other words, we won't get an inkling of where this is going until the Packers and others start signing guys, or not, and how those contracts are structured.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 866726"] In my run through on Feb. 7 ("2020 Salary Cap" thread, post #36), which includes Graham's release, projected draft costs, the Jones/Williams escators, but not the Crosby contract. I came up with $24.2 mil to work with factoring in a minimal $2 mil injury reserve. Crosby's deal knocks $4 mil off that number. I did not assume Taylor's release in those numbers, but if we assume Taylor's cap goes to Crosby it's a wash. It's not hard to see how cap dribs and drabs away even without headline signings. If you start backing and filling a couple low-to-mid tier vets and bring back a few restricted and exclusive rights free agents with modest bumps, that's more chunks, dribs or drabs. What makes this season different, obviously, is we don't know what the CBA negotiators project for future revenue and cap. However, there's another factor that came to my attention today that may result in substantial cap growth in 2021 and behond. Something around $2 billion in expenses were subtracted last year from gross revenue against which the 47% to the players was calcualted. That $2 billion includes stadium construction and renovation expenses. We've noticed a somewhat head scratching slowing of cap growth in recent years, down to about 6% in 2019, at the low end of the initial estimate. I think we may have an answer: [B]stadium construction in LA and Las Vegas.[/B] With those stadiums reaching completion, with no new ones coming on line, if we assume half of that $2 billion goes back into the revenue pool against which cap is calculated (with the other half going to ongoing facility capital improvements across the league), the math on 48% going against that addition $1 billion looks like this: $1 billion x 0.48% / 32 teams = [B]$15 mil additional cap per team per year indefinitely[/B] on top of whatever additional revenue is projected going into the 48% pool from more games and new TV contracts. This is fuzzy math. I have no idea whether the dedcutible expenses for those stadiums have been $1 billion per year in recent years but it goes to illustrate the possibilities. Billions have been poured into these pleasure palaces in recent years. The Bills dome is probably years from ground breaking if it ever gets built. I'm reading that the Redskins plan for a new stadium is stalled. I'm not aware of any others even close to ground breaking but I'm willing to be corrected on that. So, unlike previous years, we are very much in the dark as to the cap implications of headline signings in 2021 and beyond because it is impossible to estimate future cap. If there's an expected big jump, backloaded contracts come back into play with the affect of next year's cap liabilites and free agents neutralized to one degree or another. In other words, we won't get an inkling of where this is going until the Packers and others start signing guys, or not, and how those contracts are structured. [/QUOTE]
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