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Free Agency: Packers Should Green Bay Pursue?
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<blockquote data-quote="Dantés" data-source="post: 865153" data-attributes="member: 12283"><p>A note on Nick Kwiatkoski, linebacker from Chicago. </p><p></p><p><strong>Background</strong>: Kwiatkoski came out of West Virginia as a good, not great athlete who had been very productive for the Mountaineers. He received middling reports from draft analysts, and ultimately was taken in the 4th round (18 picks before Martinez, in fact). He caught on immediately as a core special teamer and was actually forced into the lineup to play 400+ snaps on defense as a rookie. His snaps declined somewhat in 2017 as the starters were healthier, and dipped to an all time low of 111 in 2018 as Roquan Smith and Danny Trevathan dominated their respective roles. </p><p></p><p><strong>2019</strong>: This last season, the Bears had to call on Kwiatkoski to play 512 snaps on defense due to injuries to Smith and Trevathan. He demonstrated that he's grown as a linebacker, meriting above average grades and achieving impressive production. Having watched as much of him from last year as I can find, he's an aggressive, downhill attacking linebacker who is still comfortable moving away from the line of scrimmage. He was far more impressive at dealing with blockers than anything I've seen from a Packers LB in quite some time. </p><p></p><p><strong>Production</strong>: Pro Football Reference credits Kwiatkoski with 56 solo tackles, 20 assisted tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 3 QB Hits, 4 Passes Defended, 1 Forced Fumble and 1 Interception. Again, that's on 512 snaps. </p><p></p><p>For comparison, Blake Martinez played 1,024 snaps on defense last year and achieved: 97 solo tackles, 58 assisted tackles, 5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 3 QB Hits, 1 Pass Defended, 1 Forced Fumble, and 1 Interception. </p><p></p><p>Martinez had exactly double Kwiatkoski's snaps. If you assume that Kwiatkoski performs comparably on doubled snaps (which is not anything like a guaranteed assumption, but for the sake of comparison), he was tracking for 112 solo tackles, 40 assisted tackles, 16 tackles for loss, 6 sacks, 6 QB Hits, 8 Passes Defended, 2 Forced Fumbles, and 2 Interceptions.</p><p></p><p>The necessary caveats are that you can't assume a rate like this with 100% confidence (though 512 snaps is not a bad sample) and the Bears defense was better than the Packers' generally. But even with that said, Kwiatkoski still made more "impact plays" (e.g. negative tackles and turnovers) than Martinez on half as many snaps. So it's safe to say that he's the more impactful player. </p><p></p><p><strong>Bottom Line: </strong>I would guess that because he's been a part timer player, Kwiatkoski is going to be in a cheaper price bracket compared to Littleton, Schobert, Martinez, etc. While Littleton would be my first choice due to his man cover skills, Kwiatkoski could be a smart buy if cap constraints or player choices mean they can't land the former. I would guess that 7-8M might get the job done, whereas Littleton might flirt with something close to double that.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Dantés, post: 865153, member: 12283"] A note on Nick Kwiatkoski, linebacker from Chicago. [B]Background[/B]: Kwiatkoski came out of West Virginia as a good, not great athlete who had been very productive for the Mountaineers. He received middling reports from draft analysts, and ultimately was taken in the 4th round (18 picks before Martinez, in fact). He caught on immediately as a core special teamer and was actually forced into the lineup to play 400+ snaps on defense as a rookie. His snaps declined somewhat in 2017 as the starters were healthier, and dipped to an all time low of 111 in 2018 as Roquan Smith and Danny Trevathan dominated their respective roles. [B]2019[/B]: This last season, the Bears had to call on Kwiatkoski to play 512 snaps on defense due to injuries to Smith and Trevathan. He demonstrated that he's grown as a linebacker, meriting above average grades and achieving impressive production. Having watched as much of him from last year as I can find, he's an aggressive, downhill attacking linebacker who is still comfortable moving away from the line of scrimmage. He was far more impressive at dealing with blockers than anything I've seen from a Packers LB in quite some time. [B]Production[/B]: Pro Football Reference credits Kwiatkoski with 56 solo tackles, 20 assisted tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 3 QB Hits, 4 Passes Defended, 1 Forced Fumble and 1 Interception. Again, that's on 512 snaps. For comparison, Blake Martinez played 1,024 snaps on defense last year and achieved: 97 solo tackles, 58 assisted tackles, 5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 3 QB Hits, 1 Pass Defended, 1 Forced Fumble, and 1 Interception. Martinez had exactly double Kwiatkoski's snaps. If you assume that Kwiatkoski performs comparably on doubled snaps (which is not anything like a guaranteed assumption, but for the sake of comparison), he was tracking for 112 solo tackles, 40 assisted tackles, 16 tackles for loss, 6 sacks, 6 QB Hits, 8 Passes Defended, 2 Forced Fumbles, and 2 Interceptions. The necessary caveats are that you can't assume a rate like this with 100% confidence (though 512 snaps is not a bad sample) and the Bears defense was better than the Packers' generally. But even with that said, Kwiatkoski still made more "impact plays" (e.g. negative tackles and turnovers) than Martinez on half as many snaps. So it's safe to say that he's the more impactful player. [B]Bottom Line: [/B]I would guess that because he's been a part timer player, Kwiatkoski is going to be in a cheaper price bracket compared to Littleton, Schobert, Martinez, etc. While Littleton would be my first choice due to his man cover skills, Kwiatkoski could be a smart buy if cap constraints or player choices mean they can't land the former. I would guess that 7-8M might get the job done, whereas Littleton might flirt with something close to double that. [/QUOTE]
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