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Five knee-jerk reactions to Packers first training camp practice
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 619178"><p>I wanted you to explicitly state your position so I could explicitly explain why it is wrong.</p><p></p><p>If you're going to count drops as a stat, the intention would be to make caparisons among receivers. Guys with higher drop counts per target would be regarded as having inferior hands to those with lower drop ratios. Correct?</p><p></p><p>Here's just one example to illustrate why that is wrong. There are a fair number of receivers in this league who do not like running routes over the middle into traffic. Some have even been named to Pro Bowls. Mike Wallace comes to mind. When a QB has this kind of receiver he will in time figure out that the guy is unreliable over the middle and not throw it to him in those difficult spots. While that keeps his drop count down, it surely does not make him a more sure-handed receiver.</p><p></p><p>Conversely, a trusted all-purpose receiver will be thrown a higher percentage of dangerous or difficult catches. Your criteria creates a paradox...his drop count will be higher while at the same time being the more reliable receiver.</p><p></p><p>A second example is the one I gave regarding Janis. If his catch radius is in question, he's going to be thrown fewer difficult balls, thereby have fewer opportunities to log drops by your criteria. I don't know to what extent Janis is not yet trusted, but I can say this...we have not yet seen a QB throw him a ball in his time as a Packer where he actually had to reach for it.</p><p></p><p>The determination of what constitutes a drop can't help but be subjective if a drop count stat is going to have any comparative value at all. Being objective is not necessarily being meaningful.</p><p></p><p>Now I don't mean to suggest that White not catching that ball is some kind of abberation. We have not seen him try it enough to think he'd likely catch the next 2 similar balls as we would if we were talking about Nelson. Again, paradoxically, if White did drop the next 2 they'd stop throwing them to him and the drop count, as you measure it, would start to fall.</p><p></p><p>So, in order to equalize the distortion caused by more trusted receivers given more difficult opportunities, I suggest applying the eye test that says, "if it's a difficult attempt, it is not a drop".</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 619178"] I wanted you to explicitly state your position so I could explicitly explain why it is wrong. If you're going to count drops as a stat, the intention would be to make caparisons among receivers. Guys with higher drop counts per target would be regarded as having inferior hands to those with lower drop ratios. Correct? Here's just one example to illustrate why that is wrong. There are a fair number of receivers in this league who do not like running routes over the middle into traffic. Some have even been named to Pro Bowls. Mike Wallace comes to mind. When a QB has this kind of receiver he will in time figure out that the guy is unreliable over the middle and not throw it to him in those difficult spots. While that keeps his drop count down, it surely does not make him a more sure-handed receiver. Conversely, a trusted all-purpose receiver will be thrown a higher percentage of dangerous or difficult catches. Your criteria creates a paradox...his drop count will be higher while at the same time being the more reliable receiver. A second example is the one I gave regarding Janis. If his catch radius is in question, he's going to be thrown fewer difficult balls, thereby have fewer opportunities to log drops by your criteria. I don't know to what extent Janis is not yet trusted, but I can say this...we have not yet seen a QB throw him a ball in his time as a Packer where he actually had to reach for it. The determination of what constitutes a drop can't help but be subjective if a drop count stat is going to have any comparative value at all. Being objective is not necessarily being meaningful. Now I don't mean to suggest that White not catching that ball is some kind of abberation. We have not seen him try it enough to think he'd likely catch the next 2 similar balls as we would if we were talking about Nelson. Again, paradoxically, if White did drop the next 2 they'd stop throwing them to him and the drop count, as you measure it, would start to fall. So, in order to equalize the distortion caused by more trusted receivers given more difficult opportunities, I suggest applying the eye test that says, "if it's a difficult attempt, it is not a drop". [/QUOTE]
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