Dantes' Mock Draft

[Dantés]

As a rule, I care way more about projecting how guys will play in the league than about where they'll get drafted, but these exercises are fun and help me form an idea of who is likely to be around at pick #29. Please pick it apart. I'm sure there are angles I'm not considering.

1. Browns- Myles Garrett, EDGE, Texas AM: Hardly needs any explanation. He's a cut above everyone in this class. My guess is that the talk of taking a QB is just leaked information in case SF was thinking about a QB and might be inclined to trade up one spot for their guy. Won't happen.
2. 49ers- Solomon Thomas, EDGE, Stanford: Unless they take a QB, I can't see SF going anywhere else. Thomas is super talented, productive, and versatile. Stanford used him as an interior guy, but he profiles as an edge for me who can reduce inside on passing downs.
3. Bears- Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State: This pick assumes they're satisfied with his hamstrings. This one was a little tough to call, but corner is a premium position and Lattimore is a blue chip prospect. The Bears were in ******* Gilmore, but lost out to New England.
4. Jaguars- Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU: It would seem to me that Marrone and Caldwell's future in JAX is tied to rehabilitating Bortles. I could see them going the Dallas route of trying to establish a dominant rushing attack to take the pressure off their passer.
5. Titans- O.J. Howard, TE, UA: Howard is the rare TE worth this pick. His skill set is perfect for running 12 personnel along with Walker, and they will be well prepared for the latter, aging player's eventual departure. In my mind, there is a drop off in prospect quality after this point.
6. Jets- Deshaun Watson, QB, CLEM: The arguments against a QB here based on value make a lot of sense, but this coach/GM have to make a play to keep their jobs. A promising rookie QB would be their ticket to more time. A stud safety and a losing record likely means they're canned.
7. Chargers- Malik Hooker, S, OSU: A center fielder with range is absolutely vital to Bradley's defense and Hooker has that in spades. This type of safety is what makes the whole thing go, so I feel comfortable slotting him here despite the tackling issues and his inability to test.
8. Panthers- Derek Barnett, DE, CLEM: When in doubt, Gettleman takes DL or OL. I think Barnett is a better athlete than he gets credit for. Three cone and broad jump are the drills I value most in edge players, and he was strong in both (while under the weather).
9. Bengals- Jamal Adams, S, LSU: The Bengals love big school guys and currently have a hole across from Iloka. There seems to be a lot of debate around Adams in terms of whether he's an in-box only player. I'm a big enough believer in him to slot him here.
10. Bills- Mike Williams, WR, Clemson: The Bills have nothing at receiver outside of the oft injured Watkins. I prefer Davis, but after not being able to work out and being a smaller school guy, I can see Williams being the first off the board.
11. Saints- Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State: It seems that the Saints are constantly in need of cornerbacks. In my opinion, Conley has separated himself as the clear #2 in this class and could well prove to be the best of the bunch in time, especially if Lattimore's hamstrings continue to nag.
12. Browns- Mitchell Trubisky, QB, UNC: The Browns get their QB of the future (in theory). I don't love any of these guys as first rounders, but with the extra round 1 pick I can see them taking the risk. Trubisky is the best pure passer of the group in terms of accuracy.
13. Cardinals- Jonathan Allen, DL, Alabama: With the loss of Campbell, Arizona's defensive line is looking pretty sad. Enter Allen, who lacks elite athleticism but plays with the kind of power and technique that tends to translate to the league.
14. Eagles- Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford: This would be an excellent marriage of talent and scheme. The Eagles need help at the position, and Pederson loves to use his backs in creative ways. He'd be a great help to their young developing QB.
15. Colts- Rueben Foster, ILB, Alabama: The Colts stop Foster's slide and land a great tone setter at a position of weakness in their defensive front. Indy's depth chart at ILB is pretty pathetic at the moment.
16. Ravens- Corey Davis, WR, W. Michigan: The Ravens have some speed on the outside, but no one to provide Flacco with some consistency in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Davis is a slam dunk value who might only get this far due to school and inability to test.
17. Redskins- Alvin Kamara, RB, Tennessee: The consistent buzz around Kamara is that the league likes him a lot more than anyone realizes. His dual threat ability would be an excellent fit for Gruden, and his style is a great contrast to Kelley's grinding approach to the position.
18. Titans- Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama: The Titans signed Logan Ryan, but they're still fairly thin. Humphrey is still only 20 years old and a stellar athlete. Given that LeBeau's defense is highly complex, it would be wise to groom a young corner for a larger role while McCourty is still around.
19. Buccaneers- David Njoku, TE, Miami: Cameron Brate is a decent player, but he can't compare athletically to a freak like Njoku. Given that the Bucs lack a quality WR3, 12 personnel would be a great option in this scenario.
20. Broncos- Garrett Bolles, OT, Utah: Bolles is a little old and inexperienced, but that still won't keep him out of round 1 given the general starvation for good OL play and his athleticism. He had better be ready to play right away if he lands in Denver.
21. Lions- Haason Red****, LB, Temple: Red****'s versatility would be a great value to the Lions, who really need to upgrade their starters in base defense and could use his pass rushing skills when they're in sub.
22. Dolphins- Forrest Lamp, OL, W. Kentucky: The Dolphins scored when Tunsil fell last year, but their guard spots are still in pretty bad shape. Lamp's lack of length will probably limit him to the interior in the NFL, but otherwise he's the best offensive lineman in this class.
23. Giants- Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin: The Giants have some nice pieces up front, but Flowers is out of his depth at left tackle. Ramczyk would theoretically allow them to move him over to the right side, stabilizing two weak spots.
24. Raiders- Tre'Davious White, CB, LSU: The Raiders' have nice cover guys for handling size at the WR position, but they are completely outmatched by speedier, shiftier receivers. Slots crushed them last year. White can play anywhere, but also excels inside.
25. Texans- DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame: I think the Texans would be doing backflips if Kizer made it to their pick. He's the best pure talent in this class and Bill O'Brien would be able to get to work proving himself as a QB developer.
26. Seahawks- Kevin King, CB, Washington: Whether Sherman leaves sooner or later, the Hawks need help at the position (and the OL are gone). They would know exactly what to do with a guy who has King's elite traits.
27. Chiefs- Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech: This would be the perfect situation for Mahomes. Andy Reid is excellent with QB's, he could sit for a year or two behind Smith, and the creativity of the staff in KC would likely allow them to meet him halfway in terms of play style.
28. Cowboys- Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan: The 'boys are in tough spots at the 2nd and 3rd levels of their defense, but they're also short on edge rushers and that's what really makes Marinelli's defense tick. So with the run on corners having happened, I think this direction makes sense.
29. Packers- T.J. Watt, OLB, Wisconsin: An extremely rare athlete, Watt is young in the game and could see big leaps at the next level. His ability to drop and cover in addition to rushing the passer would make him an ideal compliment to Nick Perry on the other side.
30. Steelers- John Ross, WR, Washington: With Coates unreliable on the field and Bryant unreliable off of it, the Steelers are close to being a one man band at WR right now. Ross' elite speed would certainly play well in that offense. I can see durability issues pushing his slot down a bit.
31. Falcons- Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut: The Falcons found their Kam Chancellor facsimile in Neal, but they still need to find some center fielder range on the back end. Melifonwu is a super athletic speedster with size. He would do well patrolling the back end in Quinn's defense.
32. Saints- Takkarist McKinley, OLB, UCLA: I think the Saints are hoping a QB falls to this pick, but in this scenario it didn't happen (I don't buy the Davis Webb Talk). So they settle instead for some much needed help in the pass rush department.

 

[AmishMafia]

Nice work - it seems plausible. Watt would be my pick in this senario. I would be dissappoited that so many CBs came off the board.

What are you thinking for round 2 for the Pack?

 

[Dantés]

Nice work - it seems plausible. Watt would be my pick in this senario. I would be dissappoited that so many CBs came off the board.

What are you thinking for round 2 for the Pack?

I'd be looking at Watt or the other plus athletes on the edge (Bowser and Willis) along with Awuzie in that spot. I guess if they feel like they can get effort out of Malik McDowell, he would be a value in terms of talent.

In the 2nd Ahkello Witherspoon would be high on my list. Similar athlete to Kevin King but with less experience. Dan Feeney and Taylor Moton are OL I like. I don't think he will fall that far, but Zay Jones would be a great value.

 

[brandon2348]

Watt is a solid pick in the 1st but my choice would be Charles Harris if he is available. I just think Harris is gonna be the better pass rusher of the two.

I could see Zay Jones in the second or Fabian Moreau. Jones just resembles the type of receiver Thompson likes and Moreau I believe would fit the Packers scheme better then the other CB's available in the second when Packers pick. Carlos Henderson is a guy to keep your eye on here too.

 

[Dantés]

Charles is easily the more refined pass rusher in his technique, but Watt is a vastly superior athlete with a higher ceiling. He can also do more for you in terms of dropping if you want him to.

Moreau is a good athlete and I certainly wouldn't turn my nose up in the 2nd, but I don't love the ball skills or injury history.

 

[Dantés]

Just saw a screen grab stat on Twitter that showed that Super Bowl winning teams draft defense, specifically defensive line significantly more than league average and offensive skill position players significantly less.

It was like this:

SB: 62% Defense
League Avg: 52% Defense

SB: 32% DL
League Avg: 24% DL

SB: 14% OSP
League Avg: 27% OSP

Food for thought.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

As a rule, I care way more about projecting how guys will play in the league than about where they'll get drafted, but these exercises are fun and help me form an idea of who is likely to be around at pick #29. Please pick it apart. I'm sure there are angles I'm not considering.

1. Browns- Myles Garrett, EDGE, Texas AM: Hardly needs any explanation. He's a cut above everyone in this class. My guess is that the talk of taking a QB is just leaked information in case SF was thinking about a QB and might be inclined to trade up one spot for their guy. Won't happen.
2. 49ers- Solomon Thomas, EDGE, Stanford: Unless they take a QB, I can't see SF going anywhere else. Thomas is super talented, productive, and versatile. Stanford used him as an interior guy, but he profiles as an edge for me who can reduce inside on passing downs.
3. Bears- Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State: This pick assumes they're satisfied with his hamstrings. This one was a little tough to call, but corner is a premium position and Lattimore is a blue chip prospect. The Bears were in ******* Gilmore, but lost out to New England.
4. Jaguars- Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU: It would seem to me that Marrone and Caldwell's future in JAX is tied to rehabilitating Bortles. I could see them going the Dallas route of trying to establish a dominant rushing attack to take the pressure off their passer.
5. Titans- O.J. Howard, TE, UA: Howard is the rare TE worth this pick. His skill set is perfect for running 12 personnel along with Walker, and they will be well prepared for the latter, aging player's eventual departure. In my mind, there is a drop off in prospect quality after this point.
6. Jets- Deshaun Watson, QB, CLEM: The arguments against a QB here based on value make a lot of sense, but this coach/GM have to make a play to keep their jobs. A promising rookie QB would be their ticket to more time. A stud safety and a losing record likely means they're canned.
7. Chargers- Malik Hooker, S, OSU: A center fielder with range is absolutely vital to Bradley's defense and Hooker has that in spades. This type of safety is what makes the whole thing go, so I feel comfortable slotting him here despite the tackling issues and his inability to test.
8. Panthers- Derek Barnett, DE, CLEM: When in doubt, Gettleman takes DL or OL. I think Barnett is a better athlete than he gets credit for. Three cone and broad jump are the drills I value most in edge players, and he was strong in both (while under the weather).
9. Bengals- Jamal Adams, S, LSU: The Bengals love big school guys and currently have a hole across from Iloka. There seems to be a lot of debate around Adams in terms of whether he's an in-box only player. I'm a big enough believer in him to slot him here.
10. Bills- Mike Williams, WR, Clemson: The Bills have nothing at receiver outside of the oft injured Watkins. I prefer Davis, but after not being able to work out and being a smaller school guy, I can see Williams being the first off the board.
11. Saints- Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State: It seems that the Saints are constantly in need of cornerbacks. In my opinion, Conley has separated himself as the clear #2 in this class and could well prove to be the best of the bunch in time, especially if Lattimore's hamstrings continue to nag.
12. Browns- Mitchell Trubisky, QB, UNC: The Browns get their QB of the future (in theory). I don't love any of these guys as first rounders, but with the extra round 1 pick I can see them taking the risk. Trubisky is the best pure passer of the group in terms of accuracy.
13. Cardinals- Jonathan Allen, DL, Alabama: With the loss of Campbell, Arizona's defensive line is looking pretty sad. Enter Allen, who lacks elite athleticism but plays with the kind of power and technique that tends to translate to the league.
14. Eagles- Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford: This would be an excellent marriage of talent and scheme. The Eagles need help at the position, and Pederson loves to use his backs in creative ways. He'd be a great help to their young developing QB.
15. Colts- Rueben Foster, ILB, Alabama: The Colts stop Foster's slide and land a great tone setter at a position of weakness in their defensive front. Indy's depth chart at ILB is pretty pathetic at the moment.
16. Ravens- Corey Davis, WR, W. Michigan: The Ravens have some speed on the outside, but no one to provide Flacco with some consistency in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Davis is a slam dunk value who might only get this far due to school and inability to test.
17. Redskins- Alvin Kamara, RB, Tennessee: The consistent buzz around Kamara is that the league likes him a lot more than anyone realizes. His dual threat ability would be an excellent fit for Gruden, and his style is a great contrast to Kelley's grinding approach to the position.
18. Titans- Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama: The Titans signed Logan Ryan, but they're still fairly thin. Humphrey is still only 20 years old and a stellar athlete. Given that LeBeau's defense is highly complex, it would be wise to groom a young corner for a larger role while McCourty is still around.
19. Buccaneers- David Njoku, TE, Miami: Cameron Brate is a decent player, but he can't compare athletically to a freak like Njoku. Given that the Bucs lack a quality WR3, 12 personnel would be a great option in this scenario.
20. Broncos- Garrett Bolles, OT, Utah: Bolles is a little old and inexperienced, but that still won't keep him out of round 1 given the general starvation for good OL play and his athleticism. He had better be ready to play right away if he lands in Denver.
21. Lions- Haason Red****, LB, Temple: Red****'s versatility would be a great value to the Lions, who really need to upgrade their starters in base defense and could use his pass rushing skills when they're in sub.
22. Dolphins- Forrest Lamp, OL, W. Kentucky: The Dolphins scored when Tunsil fell last year, but their guard spots are still in pretty bad shape. Lamp's lack of length will probably limit him to the interior in the NFL, but otherwise he's the best offensive lineman in this class.
23. Giants- Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin: The Giants have some nice pieces up front, but Flowers is out of his depth at left tackle. Ramczyk would theoretically allow them to move him over to the right side, stabilizing two weak spots.
24. Raiders- Tre'Davious White, CB, LSU: The Raiders' have nice cover guys for handling size at the WR position, but they are completely outmatched by speedier, shiftier receivers. Slots crushed them last year. White can play anywhere, but also excels inside.
25. Texans- DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame: I think the Texans would be doing backflips if Kizer made it to their pick. He's the best pure talent in this class and Bill O'Brien would be able to get to work proving himself as a QB developer.
26. Seahawks- Kevin King, CB, Washington: Whether Sherman leaves sooner or later, the Hawks need help at the position (and the OL are gone). They would know exactly what to do with a guy who has King's elite traits.
27. Chiefs- Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech: This would be the perfect situation for Mahomes. Andy Reid is excellent with QB's, he could sit for a year or two behind Smith, and the creativity of the staff in KC would likely allow them to meet him halfway in terms of play style.
28. Cowboys- Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan: The 'boys are in tough spots at the 2nd and 3rd levels of their defense, but they're also short on edge rushers and that's what really makes Marinelli's defense tick. So with the run on corners having happened, I think this direction makes sense.
29. Packers- T.J. Watt, OLB, Wisconsin: An extremely rare athlete, Watt is young in the game and could see big leaps at the next level. His ability to drop and cover in addition to rushing the passer would make him an ideal compliment to Nick Perry on the other side.
30. Steelers- John Ross, WR, Washington: With Coates unreliable on the field and Bryant unreliable off of it, the Steelers are close to being a one man band at WR right now. Ross' elite speed would certainly play well in that offense. I can see durability issues pushing his slot down a bit.
31. Falcons- Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut: The Falcons found their Kam Chancellor facsimile in Neal, but they still need to find some center fielder range on the back end. Melifonwu is a super athletic speedster with size. He would do well patrolling the back end in Quinn's defense.
32. Saints- Takkarist McKinley, OLB, UCLA: I think the Saints are hoping a QB falls to this pick, but in this scenario it didn't happen (I don't buy the Davis Webb Talk). So they settle instead for some much needed help in the pass rush department.

Well thought-out, and one mock is as good as the next, so I can't say you're wrong. Do you really think Charles Harris slips into the second round?

Mocks are fun, but ultimately are up-ended by trades that are near-impossible to predict, and some team's illogical pick that affects every team that follows. Still, I enjoyed yours. Nice work.

 

[Dantés]

Well thought-out, and one mock is as good as the next, so I can't say you're wrong. Do you really think Charles Harris slips into the second round?

Mocks are fun, but ultimately are up-ended by trades that are near-impossible to predict, and some team's illogical pick that affects every team that follows. Still, I enjoyed yours. Nice work.

No, I really don't. That was one dissatisfaction I had with this.

I really don't do mocks to try and get all the slots right. I just try to get a general idea of where I think guys are likely to go so that I can form some opinion of who my be there for the Packers to choose from.

In general, I'm much more interested in projecting how a player will actually do in the league than where he will get drafted.

Thanks for the feedback.

 

[Dantés]

My final and best guess in advance of the draft (at least before all the late leaks come out and the reports of who likes who start to form up). Let's see how wrong I end up being!

1. Browns: M. Garrett, ED, TAMU
2. 49ers: S. Thomas, ED, STAN
3. Bears: J. Allen, DL, BAMA
4. Jaguars: O. Howard, TE, BAMA
5. Titans: M. Lattimore, CB, OSU
6. Jets: D. Watson, QB, CLEM
7. Chargers: M. Hooker, S, OSU
8. Panthers: L. Fournette, RB, LSU
9. Bengals: J. Adams, S, LSU
10. Bills: M. Williams, WR, CLEM
11. Saints: G. Conley, CB, OSU
12. Browns: M. Trubisky, QB, UNC
13. Cardinals: R. Foster, LB, BAMA
14. Eagles: C. McCaffrey, RB, STAN
15. Colts: C. Harris, ED, MIZZ
16. Ravens: D. Barnett, ED, CLEM
17. Redskins: A. Kamara, RB, TEN
18. Titans: C. Davis, WR, WMU
19. Buccaneers: D. Njoku, TE, MIA
20. Broncos: G. Bolles, OT, UTAH
21. Lions: H. Red****, LB, TEM
22. Dolphins: M. Humphrey, CB, BAMA
23. Giants: R. Ramczyk, OT, WISC
24. Raiders: T. White, CB, LSU
25. Texans: D. Kizer, QB, ND
26. Seahawks: F. Lamp, OL, WKU
27. Chiefs: P. Mahomes, QB, TTU
28. Cowboys: M. McDowell, DL, MSU
29. Packers: T. Watt, ED, WISC
30. Steelers: A. Jackson, CB, USC
31. Falcons: J. Willis, ED, KSU
32. Saints: T. McKinley, ED, UCLA

 

[brandon2348]

Well I hope the board doesnt play out like that for obvious reasons. If it does and the kid checks out like I'm hearing I'd take Mixon here.

Otherwise trade back and get more picks as I don't see Watt as the answer at 29.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

My final and best guess in advance of the draft (at least before all the late leaks come out and the reports of who likes who start to form up). Let's see how wrong I end up being!

1. Browns: M. Garrett, ED, TAMU
2. 49ers: S. Thomas, ED, STAN
3. Bears: J. Allen, DL, BAMA
4. Jaguars: O. Howard, TE, BAMA
5. Titans: M. Lattimore, CB, OSU
6. Jets: D. Watson, QB, CLEM
7. Chargers: M. Hooker, S, OSU
8. Panthers: L. Fournette, RB, LSU
9. Bengals: J. Adams, S, LSU
10. Bills: M. Williams, WR, CLEM
11. Saints: G. Conley, CB, OSU
12. Browns: M. Trubisky, QB, UNC
13. Cardinals: R. Foster, LB, BAMA
14. Eagles: C. McCaffrey, RB, STAN
15. Colts: C. Harris, ED, MIZZ
16. Ravens: D. Barnett, ED, CLEM
17. Redskins: A. Kamara, RB, TEN
18. Titans: C. Davis, WR, WMU
19. Buccaneers: D. Njoku, TE, MIA
20. Broncos: G. Bolles, OT, UTAH
21. Lions: H. Red****, LB, TEM
22. Dolphins: M. Humphrey, CB, BAMA
23. Giants: R. Ramczyk, OT, WISC
24. Raiders: T. White, CB, LSU
25. Texans: D. Kizer, QB, ND
26. Seahawks: F. Lamp, OL, WKU
27. Chiefs: P. Mahomes, QB, TTU
28. Cowboys: M. McDowell, DL, MSU
29. Packers: T. Watt, ED, WISC
30. Steelers: A. Jackson, CB, USC
31. Falcons: J. Willis, ED, KSU
32. Saints: T. McKinley, ED, UCLA

I'd be okay with that - I'm hoping for an edge rusher, and either Watt or Harris would make me smile.

 

[Dantés]

I'll use this space to post my thoughts on the class. I don't really like the idea of post-draft grades (well... I do, but only until 2-3 years have gone by). But I do have some takes and I'll share them here if anyone cares.

• #33, Kevin King, CB, UW: King was in many of our crosshairs and for good reason. I think we all know the reasons to like him by now-- freakish size, athleticism, and ball skills at a position of need. So what I will say here is that I loved the trade down for him. We got extra draft capital without giving up really much of anything, as King could easily have been the pick at #29. I never expected a trade down to be an option unless it was for a QB. But obviously I stand corrected.
• #61, Josh Jones, DB, BC: Safety was definitely on my radar as a possible target position, but not this high. Consequently, I didn't spend my time researching the top safeties. But since the pick has happened, I've become highly intrigued. Jones has safety size and pop with corner athleticism and skills. He apparently played single high, in the box, and over the slot. He profiles as a good candidate to take over Hyde's role and/or a starting safety job. I was talking to a QB coach of a local college this morning who worked for two years in Raleigh as a GA. He said that he would be shocked if Jones doesn't make an impact as a rookie. He added that when he was playing closer to 210 (220 at the combine), he was running in the 4.3's (4.41 in Indianapolis).
• #93, Montravious Adams, DL, AUB: Another position I wasn't anticipating this early just because of the relative weakness of the DL class. I expected prospects of this caliber to go earlier to teams with greater need at the position. But despite the down year for DL, Adams was well worth a late 3rd as an individual prospect. I'm glad that this is the type of DL they targeted, as he's a penetrating 3T type. We rely too heavily on Daniels (and basically no one else) for that role. Aside from him, we have bigger edge players like Lowry and 1T types like Clark, Guion, and RJF. I'm excited to see what the rookie can do, and what Daniels can do if he's better spelled/rested. Adams is supposed to have been one of, if not the most dominant players during Sr. Bowl week.
• #108, Vince Biegel, EDGE, WISC: This is my favorite pick of the draft. I love, love, love that they turned 29 in King AND Biegel. I was a little miffed on Friday that they didn't take an edge rusher. Biegel was the last one on the board that I really liked and they snatched him right out of the gate. He had a down year playing with a broken foot, but if you look back at his previous seasons you can see where the trajectory was headed. That down year, in my opinion, allowed the Packers to land a steal. Despite the conventional wisdom on the kid, he's a fantastic athlete (in addition to being a really skilled player). Here is the list of drafted edge players going back to 1999 who had a 6.92 or better in the 3C and a 118" or better broad jump at the combine, as Biegel did (on measurables alone, you're looking at a hit rate of about 75% here):
  • Kyle Vanden Bosch
  • David Pollack
  • J.J. Watt
  • Joey Bosa
  • Devin Taylor
  • Brian Robison
  • Daniel Te'o-Nesheim
  • Von Miller
  • Bruce Irvin
  • Barkevious Mingo
  • Demarcus Ware
  • Connor Barwin
  • Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila
  • Clay Matthews
  • Manny Lawson
  • Vic Beasley
• #134, Jamaal Williams, RB, BYU: This was the first pick that I really kind of quibbled with. The position makes a lot of sense, obviously. But I really like Brian Hill who was still on the board. I get that what Williams offers, namely power, balance, and YAC, isn't really measurable so the tests aren't going to show it. But I just question that a 6' 212 lb back is going to be a big power threat in the pros. I like that he's a north/south slasher and I've read he's strong in pass pro (that's big for the Packers). So there are qualities to appreciate, but he isn't the choice I would have made here. May he make me eat those words.
• #175, DeAngelo Yancey, WR, PUR: I figured that if they didn't draft a WR early, they'd take a swing on a talented guy with size later in the draft. Here it is. Based on his pro day numbers, Yancey had really solid testing results really across the board. They all hovered around the 50th%. Which, when you're talking about a 6'1" 220 pound player, is pretty exceptional. 3 Sigma Athlete had him in the 72nd percentile. I really know nothing about the kid on the football field, but when you get into the later picks I very much approve of throwing darts with plus athletes.
• #182, Aaron Jones, RB, UTEP: I really like this pick, as Ted is bringing a lot of variety into the backfield (reminiscent of the Pats, actually). Jones is one of the best athletes at his position in the draft. He's built like a slight bigger version of Ray Rice, and turned in a fantastic combine performance after a really productive career. His 7.7 YPC needs to be taken with a grain of salt given his level of competition, but he did shred Texas when they played last year. He's also been a fairly prolific receiver, and has unusually long arms and big hands for his position which bodes well for transferring that skill set.
• #212, Kofi Amichia, OL, USF: I trawled the positional rankings across the web for undersized tackles with great 3C and SS times who could move to guard. Those types of players have become synonymous with TT as a GM. I missed Amichia because he never had those times published. My guess is that he did quite well in those drills. But he profiles exactly like a TT lineman. Hopefully he becomes another in a long line of mid-late round gems. PFF had him with a mere 9 pressures allowed in 403 pass blocks attempts last year.
• #238, Davante Mays, RB, USU: This was the first pick that I had never heard of. After some research, I like the move in the 7th round. I also love that TT threw so many darts at RB. These guys all have unique skill sets and should be able to carve out roles (while showing Michael the door). Mays is a bowling ball. At 5'10" 230 lbs, he ran a 4.52 and jumped 40.5". That's absurd. He tests and plays like a bowling ball. Had he not missed time with an ankle, he may well have gone much early. And again, in the late rounds you take swings on athletes. Players take their traits with them to the pros, but they can't bring their production along.
• #247, Malachi Dupre, WR, LSU: Criminally underutilized at LSU, Dupre really ought to have gone much higher than this. He isn't a shifty player, but he's got length, decent speed, and can out jump just about anyone. He should be able to challenge for a role as a vertical boundary receiver and ST gunner. It worked out in our interest that the Tigers have no idea how to use their receivers or run an effective offense.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

I'll use this space to post my thoughts on the class. I don't really like the idea of post-draft grades (well... I do, but only until 2-3 years have gone by). But I do have some takes and I'll share them here if anyone cares.

• #33, Kevin King, CB, UW: King was in many of our crosshairs and for good reason. I think we all know the reasons to like him by now-- freakish size, athleticism, and ball skills at a position of need. So what I will say here is that I loved the trade down for him. We got extra draft capital without giving up really much of anything, as King could easily have been the pick at #29. I never expected a trade down to be an option unless it was for a QB. But obviously I stand corrected.
• #61, Josh Jones, DB, BC: Safety was definitely on my radar as a possible target position, but not this high. Consequently, I didn't spend my time researching the top safeties. But since the pick has happened, I've become highly intrigued. Jones has safety size and pop with corner athleticism and skills. He apparently played single high, in the box, and over the slot. He profiles as a good candidate to take over Hyde's role and/or a starting safety job. I was talking to a QB coach of a local college this morning who worked for two years in Raleigh as a GA. He said that he would be shocked if Jones doesn't make an impact as a rookie. He added that when he was playing closer to 210 (220 at the combine), he was running in the 4.3's (4.41 in Indianapolis).
• #93, Montravious Adams, DL, AUB: Another position I wasn't anticipating this early just because of the relative weakness of the DL class. I expected prospects of this caliber to go earlier to teams with greater need at the position. But despite the down year for DL, Adams was well worth a late 3rd as an individual prospect. I'm glad that this is the type of DL they targeted, as he's a penetrating 3T type. We rely too heavily on Daniels (and basically no one else) for that role. Aside from him, we have bigger edge players like Lowry and 1T types like Clark, Guion, and RJF. I'm excited to see what the rookie can do, and what Daniels can do if he's better spelled/rested. Adams is supposed to have been one of, if not the most dominant players during Sr. Bowl week.
• #108, Vince Biegel, EDGE, WISC: This is my favorite pick of the draft. I love, love, love that they turned 29 in King AND Biegel. I was a little miffed on Friday that they didn't take an edge rusher. Biegel was the last one on the board that I really liked and they snatched him right out of the gate. He had a down year playing with a broken foot, but if you look back at his previous seasons you can see where the trajectory was headed. That down year, in my opinion, allowed the Packers to land a steal. Despite the conventional wisdom on the kid, he's a fantastic athlete (in addition to being a really skilled player). Here is the list of drafted edge players going back to 1999 who had a 6.92 or better in the 3C and a 118" or better broad jump at the combine, as Biegel did (on measurables alone, you're looking at a hit rate of about 75% here):
  • Kyle Vanden Bosch
  • David Pollack
  • J.J. Watt
  • Joey Bosa
  • Devin Taylor
  • Brian Robison
  • Daniel Te'o-Nesheim
  • Von Miller
  • Bruce Irvin
  • Barkevious Mingo
  • Demarcus Ware
  • Connor Barwin
  • Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila
  • Clay Matthews
  • Manny Lawson
  • Vic Beasley
• #134, Jamaal Williams, RB, BYU: This was the first pick that I really kind of quibbled with. The position makes a lot of sense, obviously. But I really like Brian Hill who was still on the board. I get that what Williams offers, namely power, balance, and YAC, isn't really measurable so the tests aren't going to show it. But I just question that a 6' 212 lb back is going to be a big power threat in the pros. I like that he's a north/south slasher and I've read he's strong in pass pro (that's big for the Packers). So there are qualities to appreciate, but he isn't the choice I would have made here. May he make me eat those words.
• #175, DeAngelo Yancey, WR, PUR: I figured that if they didn't draft a WR early, they'd take a swing on a talented guy with size later in the draft. Here it is. Based on his pro day numbers, Yancey had really solid testing results really across the board. They all hovered around the 50th%. Which, when you're talking about a 6'1" 220 pound player, is pretty exceptional. 3 Sigma Athlete had him in the 72nd percentile. I really know nothing about the kid on the football field, but when you get into the later picks I very much approve of throwing darts with plus athletes.
• #182, Aaron Jones, RB, UTEP: I really like this pick, as Ted is bringing a lot of variety into the backfield (reminiscent of the Pats, actually). Jones is one of the best athletes at his position in the draft. He's built like a slight bigger version of Ray Rice, and turned in a fantastic combine performance after a really productive career. His 7.7 YPC needs to be taken with a grain of salt given his level of competition, but he did shred Texas when they played last year. He's also been a fairly prolific receiver, and has unusually long arms and big hands for his position which bodes well for transferring that skill set.
• #212, Kofi Amichia, OL, USF: I trawled the positional rankings across the web for undersized tackles with great 3C and SS times who could move to guard. Those types of players have become synonymous with TT as a GM. I missed Amichia because he never had those times published. My guess is that he did quite well in those drills. But he profiles exactly like a TT lineman. Hopefully he becomes another in a long line of mid-late round gems. PFF had him with a mere 9 pressures allowed in 403 pass blocks attempts last year.
• #238, Davante Mays, RB, USU: This was the first pick that I had never heard of. After some research, I like the move in the 7th round. I also love that TT threw so many darts at RB. These guys all have unique skill sets and should be able to carve out roles (while showing Michael the door). Mays is a bowling ball. At 5'10" 230 lbs, he ran a 4.52 and jumped 40.5". That's absurd. He tests and plays like a bowling ball. Had he not missed time with an ankle, he may well have gone much early. And again, in the late rounds you take swings on athletes. Players take their traits with them to the pros, but they can't bring their production along.
• #247, Malachi Dupre, WR, LSU: Criminally underutilized at LSU, Dupre really ought to have gone much higher than this. He isn't a shifty player, but he's got length, decent speed, and can out jump just about anyone. He should be able to challenge for a role as a vertical boundary receiver and ST gunner. It worked out in our interest that the Tigers have no idea how to use their receivers or run an effective offense.

I enjoyed your analysis, and found myself nodding my head in agreement as I read your post. Let's hope it works out the way Ted intended.

 

[AmishMafia]

Well done. You increased my already high optimistim.

 

[Sky King]

Even my cup of coffee seems to taste better this AM after reading your analysis. There's every reason to be optimistic right now since the draft results look genuinely promising.