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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 604815"><p>"Very likely" is more an expression of optimism than an outcome supported by the evidence.</p><p></p><p>As we move along in this process, it's becoming increasingly apparent that "who replaces Hawk?" may be the wrong question. We've been proceeding on the basis that the football operation has some kind of priority in getting Mathews back on the outside as soon as possible.</p><p></p><p>The evidence indicates that's not the case.</p><p></p><p>McCarthy has commented so often this off season that he intends to use Matthews in the middle that by now it should be gospel. Most recently, he commented that the surrounding players expressed appreciation for the move in exit interviews, that he makes everybody around him better.</p><p></p><p>On the other hand, Perry has not developed into a productive edge rusher. Is there any evidence he's an upgrade from Walden/Zombo or Walden alone? It would be hard to make that argument. He's in his contract year. He's precisely the kind of player one of the other 31 teams will pay an amount Thompson won't want to match, a decision I would endorse. Walden got 4 years / $16 mil from Indy which should provide some indication.</p><p></p><p>At the same time, Peppers is year-to-year in terms of when the drop off occurs. Further, he'll be a $10.5 mil cap hit in 2016 with $2.5 mil in dead cap; releasing him after this season will yield $10 mil in cap savings.</p><p></p><p>Taking a 2 year view, with the entire starting offense signed through 2016, followed by a pile of expiring contracts, there are a couple of dualing considerations:</p><p></p><p>1. A first round pick could be allocated to an ILB (the fan preference) that will likely be a rotational player with Matthews in 2015. He needs to be a guy who can be productive right away in 1-or-2-down play. Given the cost, he'd have to have the potential to progress to 3-down play in 2016 getting Mathews back on the edge. That would still leave a big question mark, once again, regarding the "bookend" in 2016.</p><p></p><p>2. An OLB with edge rush credentials in the first round would serve as a spot player in 2015, taking Perry's spot in obvious passing situations and/or spelling Peppers from time-to-time. Peppers took about 75% of the snaps last year, a number that should not be repeated for a playoff run. Peppers might also be the best 3-tech pass rusher we have; another edge rusher could get him more snaps inside at nickel. A player with that draft status, as with the ILB option, should have 3-down potential in 2016 as the bookend. In the interim, the possibilities are attractive. Peppers and an upgrade at the other side, with Matthews blitzing from the middle, or Matthews in the middle, Peppers inside, and the new guy and Perry/Neal off the edge would present an attractive set of match up possibilities.</p><p></p><p>Matthews flexibility provides an unusual opportunity. Assuming the NT situation is resolved in the interim, Thompson could easily take the "best available player" among the ILB / OLB choices. If NT is not resolved by the draft, that's 3 positions from which to choose the "best" player.</p><p></p><p>If anything, the OLB option is more attractive from the standpoint that finding one for 3-4 in a lower round, or in the free market if push comes to shove, sometime in the 2 year window, is a much more difficult and expensive proposition. A 2-down ILB is always an easier get.</p><p></p><p>Given the "casting call" going on at ILB as Thompson accumulates a collection of lightly used and un-played players at the position, I would not be surprised if he goes for more bodies in the lower rounds, looking for one to emerge for 2-down play. "Likely"? Not really based on the guys on the roster. More like a calculated risk. The picture could improve markedly with a pick below the first round for a guy with 2-down credentials, with a 1 or 2 year horizon for Matthews playing the middle.</p><p></p><p>I won't be surprised if ILB doesn't hit until the 3rd. round or even lower with the expressed intent that Matthews will make a return performance at ILB and the other needs are addressed.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 604815"] "Very likely" is more an expression of optimism than an outcome supported by the evidence. As we move along in this process, it's becoming increasingly apparent that "who replaces Hawk?" may be the wrong question. We've been proceeding on the basis that the football operation has some kind of priority in getting Mathews back on the outside as soon as possible. The evidence indicates that's not the case. McCarthy has commented so often this off season that he intends to use Matthews in the middle that by now it should be gospel. Most recently, he commented that the surrounding players expressed appreciation for the move in exit interviews, that he makes everybody around him better. On the other hand, Perry has not developed into a productive edge rusher. Is there any evidence he's an upgrade from Walden/Zombo or Walden alone? It would be hard to make that argument. He's in his contract year. He's precisely the kind of player one of the other 31 teams will pay an amount Thompson won't want to match, a decision I would endorse. Walden got 4 years / $16 mil from Indy which should provide some indication. At the same time, Peppers is year-to-year in terms of when the drop off occurs. Further, he'll be a $10.5 mil cap hit in 2016 with $2.5 mil in dead cap; releasing him after this season will yield $10 mil in cap savings. Taking a 2 year view, with the entire starting offense signed through 2016, followed by a pile of expiring contracts, there are a couple of dualing considerations: 1. A first round pick could be allocated to an ILB (the fan preference) that will likely be a rotational player with Matthews in 2015. He needs to be a guy who can be productive right away in 1-or-2-down play. Given the cost, he'd have to have the potential to progress to 3-down play in 2016 getting Mathews back on the edge. That would still leave a big question mark, once again, regarding the "bookend" in 2016. 2. An OLB with edge rush credentials in the first round would serve as a spot player in 2015, taking Perry's spot in obvious passing situations and/or spelling Peppers from time-to-time. Peppers took about 75% of the snaps last year, a number that should not be repeated for a playoff run. Peppers might also be the best 3-tech pass rusher we have; another edge rusher could get him more snaps inside at nickel. A player with that draft status, as with the ILB option, should have 3-down potential in 2016 as the bookend. In the interim, the possibilities are attractive. Peppers and an upgrade at the other side, with Matthews blitzing from the middle, or Matthews in the middle, Peppers inside, and the new guy and Perry/Neal off the edge would present an attractive set of match up possibilities. Matthews flexibility provides an unusual opportunity. Assuming the NT situation is resolved in the interim, Thompson could easily take the "best available player" among the ILB / OLB choices. If NT is not resolved by the draft, that's 3 positions from which to choose the "best" player. If anything, the OLB option is more attractive from the standpoint that finding one for 3-4 in a lower round, or in the free market if push comes to shove, sometime in the 2 year window, is a much more difficult and expensive proposition. A 2-down ILB is always an easier get. Given the "casting call" going on at ILB as Thompson accumulates a collection of lightly used and un-played players at the position, I would not be surprised if he goes for more bodies in the lower rounds, looking for one to emerge for 2-down play. "Likely"? Not really based on the guys on the roster. More like a calculated risk. The picture could improve markedly with a pick below the first round for a guy with 2-down credentials, with a 1 or 2 year horizon for Matthews playing the middle. I won't be surprised if ILB doesn't hit until the 3rd. round or even lower with the expressed intent that Matthews will make a return performance at ILB and the other needs are addressed. [/QUOTE]
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